Sunday, September 28, 2014

NFL Week 4 Picks


The NFL returns to London today. Unfortunately for the Brits they get to witness teams with a 1-5 combined record. There are also two more games in Wembley this season and I for one have finally embraced the possibility of a team being in London. Why not? Hell, give 'em two teams. If the Brits can support them it would be pretty cool to have a team from across the pond play in the NFL. Can you imagine a Super Bowl matchup of the Dallas Cowboys vs. the London Redcoats? Not that the Cowboys are getting to a Super Bowl anytime soon but you get the point.  

Another rough week picking games for week three. I once again went 8-8 for outright picks and a stinky 1-3 on spreads. Time to turn it around. Onto the picks...

Overall:  28-20  Spread: 6-7

Steelers 24, Buccaneers 20 --- TB +7.5 I have a bad feeling this game is going to be closer than most expect. The Bucs were horrible against the Falcons last week but they are on a long rest, which could help them. The Steelers are off a big win and return home, so it wouldn't shock me if they start slow and struggle to get a win against an inferior team.

Bears 30, Packers 20 --- I'm selling all my Packers stock. I don't think they are very good and I don't see them going into Chicago and getting a win. The Bears didn't look great against the Jets on Monday but they got the win and have now won two in a row after their opening day loss to the Bills. The Bears secondary is hurting, which could be a problem but rookie Kyle Fuller has been very good to start his career.

Texans 27, Bills 17 --- HOU -3 Both teams are 2-1 after losing last week. I think the Texans are the better team. The Bills weren't horrible against the Chargers last week but I'm starting to get the feeling that they just aren't very good despite their decent start to the season. I'll take the Texans at home. The Texans have also outscored the Bills 52-19 in their last two meetings.

Colts 36, Titans 14 --- IND -7.5 The Colts made me look bad last week by blowing out the Jaguars despite me saying it could be a close one. I also picked the Titans to cover the spread in Cincinnati but that didn't go too well. The Colts are the better team and maybe they figured things out last week against the Jags. They should win this one easily.

Panthers 23, Ravens 20 --- This one is a toss up. I think the Panthers get the win though. They didn't look good against the Steelers last Sunday but they were also without two running backs and then Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert got hurt in the game. If they establish their run game against Baltimore they should be in it. Then just hope Joe FLACCCCOOOO doesn't throw up his patented deep ball, as he hopes for a pass interference multiple times.

Jets 24, Lions 20 --- NYJ +1.5 Despite losing at home last week to the Bears the Jets are still 7-3 at home with Geno Smith as their QB. The Lions are off a nice home win over the Packers but it always seems like the Lions can never put together back-to-back good weeks. As long as Geno doesn't throw another pick six and they don't get any bad calls against them they should be in the game. I'll take the Jets to bounce back after two straight losses.

Raiders 20, Dolphins 17 --- The seem to be a mess at moment. Ryan Tannehill is playing today in London but he could be on a short leash. I've never figured out the Dolphins. If I pick them to win, they lose and vice versa. The Raiders have been bad through three weeks but they hung close to the Patriots last week. Maybe I'm reading into the Tannehill situation but I think it will hurt them this week, especially when playing over the pond.

Chargers 31, Jaguars 14 --- Chargers are good. Jaguars stink. This one shouldn't be all that close unless Blake Bortles is a miracle worker.

Falcons 30, Vikings 24 --- The line in this game stinks. The Falcons are a three point favorite against Teddy Bridgewater making his first NFL start. The Vikings have lost two in a row and the Falcons are off an impressive victory. It would make sense if the Falcons win this one big but the line has my mind very confused. That being said, I'll still take the Falcons on the road.

49ers 27, Eagles 24 --- It wouldn't shock me at all if the Eagles win this game and improve to 4-0 but  I can't see the Niners losing three in a row. I just can't. Colin Kaepernick has not been great to start the year, throwing only four touchdowns to three interceptions. The Eagles have not had good starts to any of their games yet. That could hurt them if they do that today because the Niners will attempt to take the air out of the ball with their run game. I could be wrong and the Niners just aren't that good, but I'm not giving up on them yet.

Saints 31, Cowboys 27 --- The Cowboys have two in a row but their defense is still an issue. They let up 31 points last week to the Austin Davis lead Rams. Their two wins have been against the Titans and Rams, so who knows how good the Boys are just yet. I'll take the Saints to win in JerryWorld because they need it more. They can't fall to 1-3 while the Falcons and Panthers could potentially be 3-1.

Patriots 20, Chiefs 14 --- I'm not sure of what to make of the Patriots so far. Their two wins are over the Vikings and Raiders. They didn't look too impressive last week but they won, which is what they always do. They are going to end up with 12 wins or so but I don't know if they are really that good. Their offense has been very shaky and maybe Lord Brady's days are numbered. Writing this I'm realizing that I'm going to be wrong and TFB will probably throw for 400 yards and have four touchdowns. I'll take the Patriots on Monday night because they are indeed still the Patriots.

Enjoy the games people.

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