THANKSGIVING FOOTBALL

HUMBABE. A tradition unlike any other. Turkey and football and more turkey and pie and then more football. Thanksgiving is always one of my favorite days of the year but with the addition of Steelers football this year, I'm pumped. Onto the picks...

Lions 27, Packers 20 --- DET -6 This is my own Thanksgiving tradition, picking the Lions to win no matter who they play. They haven't won on Turkey Day since 2003. However the last team they beat was the Packers, so maybe they can finally end that streak. The Lions have lost two in a row though, including a loss to the Buccaneers at home last week. Luckily they don't have to play Aaron Rodgers today and the Packers have not won a game in four weeks. The Lions need to win if they want to win the NFC North, which is completely up for grabs. I think the Packers are the best team but only when Rodgers is playing QB. So the Lions need to create space in the division considering Rodgers is coming back soon. With all that being said, the Lions should finally get it done today. Turkey and stuffing for everybody in the Motor City!

Cowboys 30, Raiders 21 --- OAK +9.5 The Cowboys have been much better on Thanksgiving than the Lions, winning five of their past seven including a 24-7 win over the Raiders in 2009. This makes me wonder, why are the Raiders getting another chance to play on Thanksgiving? I get that they are a pretty historic franchise but they haven't been good for a decade and since when is Raiders Cowboys a rivalry? Anyways, The Cowboys had a big win last week over the Giants. People need to start giving Tony Romo some credit. He lead the Cowboys right down the field in the fourth quarter to beat the G-Men on the road. The Boys shouldn't have a huge problem taking care of the Raiders at home today but 9.5 is a big spread.

P.S. I love the Cowboys Thanksgiving uniforms. The white helmets with the blue star are awesome.


Steelers 17, Ravens 14 --- PIT +3 The Steelers haven't played on Thanksgiving since 1998 when they lost to the Lions in overtime. I still remember that game because Jerome Bettis called Tails for the coin flip and even though it landed Tails the referee, Phil Luckett, gave the Lions the ball. Here is a video about it. Bogus. 15 years later and it's still ridiculous.
The Steelers finally get another shot on Thanksgiving, this time in Baltimore. They beat the Ravens in week seven 19-16 and Big Ben is now 7-1 when he goes head-to-head against Joe Flacco. The loser of this game will most likely not make the playoffs. I know seven losses in the AFC doesn't eliminate you but the Ravens still have games against the Vikings, Lions, Patriots, and Bengals. While the Steelers play the Dolphins, Bengals, Packers, and Browns. I really doubt either team runs the table so a loss tonight would be devastating.
I'm taking the Steelers in this one because I truly believe Big Ben is the better quarterback and Joe Flacco just doesn't have what it takes to beat him. If Ray Rice runs wild, then you can throw that statement away but Ravens/Steelers games are always close and decided by one or two key plays. Whoever makes fewer mistakes will most likely get the win.

Happy Thanksgiving to everybody who reads. I really appreciate it.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Obviously the game of the week is Broncos at Patriots, better known as Manning vs. Brady XIV. Since when did we start adding roman numerals to these games like it's the friggin Super Bowl? Anyways, that picture makes Peyton look very old and Tommy looks like some sort of creepy evil fashion model.

Last weeks picks were horrible like I expected them to be after a great week 10. I went 1-2-1 for spreads and only 8-6 overall. I have a better feeling about my picks this week though. Onto the games...

Overall: 98-61  Spread: 19-23-2

Steelers 27, Browns 17 --- PIT +2 The Cleveland Browns became a franchise again in 1999, since then they have a 5-23 record against the Steelers. Five wins in 14 seasons. The Brownies have also lost four of five after their three game winning streak earlier this year. I'm not too sure why they are favored in this game other than the fact that it's in Cleveland. The Steelers have won four of their last six and need to keep winning in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. There would be no excuse if the Steelers blow this opportunity to get to 5-6.

Lions 24, Bucs 21 --- In the past three games Mike Glennon has thrown 7 TDs and zero interceptions. The Bucs have won two of those games and lost the other one in overtime to the Seahawks. The Bucs have been playing with a lot of heart recently and I think they will play well again today in Detroit but they are 0-4 on the road and the Lions are a better home team. It could be a close game but the Lions should get the win.

Packers 20, Vikings 17 --- The Packers are reminding me of the 2011 Indianapolis Colts without Peyton Manning. Ever since Aaron Rodgers got hurt the Pack are 0-3. In the past two games they have only scored 26 total points. They are however still in the NFC North divisional race and they get to play the 2-7 Vikings this week, who are 0-5 on the road this season. If the Packers want to keep their playoff hopes alive they need to get this win.

Chiefs 20, Chargers 14 --- The Chargers have lost three games in a row to the Redskins, Broncos, and Dolphins. They were 4-3 before those losses but they are starting to become the team we all expected them to be at the beginning of the year. Which is mediocre at best. The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the year but they are a much better team in Arrowhead so I think they hand the Chargers their fourth straight loss today.

Rams 27, Bears 24 --- I have no idea who wins this game. The Rams had a bye last week but in week 10 they went into Indianapolis and won 38-8. Before that they have lost three games in a row even though Zac Stacy was running for 300 yards. The Bears on the other hand have been alright since Jay Cutler got hurt. They lost to the Redskins and Lions but beat the Packers and Ravens. So, they aren't a bad team but they aren't great either. I'll take the Rams because they are the home team but this one could go either way.

Panthers 21, Dolphins 14 --- This might sound strange but I have less confidence picking the Panthers to win this game then I did when I picked them to beat the 49ers and Patriots. The Panthers are better than the Dolphins but I could easily see them having a let down after two of the bigger wins in franchise history. I'll still pick them to win but it wouldn't shock me if the Dolphins hang around in this one.

Ravens 31, Jets 14 --- BAL -3.5 The Jets have the second worst point differential in the league right now (-85 points). So if the Jets aren't winning they get blown out basically. I think they get crushed again this week. I know they are due for a win because they alternate wins and losses but Geno Smith isn't good on the road (4 TDs, 10 INTs). The Ravens are also a better team at home (3-1 this season), and need to win in order to put them into a better position for the final wild card spot.

Texans 27, Jaguars 14 --- The Texans are currently on an eight game losing streak but they have lost their last four games by a total of 12 points. So even though the Texans are bad they haven't quit. Case Keenum had been good until last week when he got benched against the Raiders. But he's starting today and I think they finally get their third win of the year over the Jaguars because the Jags are dreadful. Other than their win against the Titans, they have lost every game by 10 or more points.

Raiders 24, Titans 20 --- OAK -1.5 The Titans have lost five of six including a loss to the Jaguars so I'm not too sure why they are the favorite in this one. The Raiders are off a win over in the Texans in Matt McGloin's first NFL start. He threw for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks. Not a bad debut. The Raiders have been a better team this year at home, posting a 3-2 record. They also rank 6th in the league in rushing defense, so it's possible Chris Johnson will have little to no impact making Ryan Fitzpatrick throw the ball often, which can only mean interceptions. Raiders win.

Colts 26, Cardinals 23 --- The Cardinals three game win streak has been accomplished by beating teams with five total wins (Falcons, Texans, Jaguars). That's not exactly a Panthers resume. Today they get a real test with the Colts, who are 4-1 on the road and haven't played since last Thursday. The Colts haven't been playing great football lately, barely getting wins over the Texans and Titans and getting smoked by the Rams but they won two of those games. They normally win the close ones, so I think Andrew Luck will pull this one out in the end.

Giants 31, Cowboys 27 --- The G-Men have won four in a row, while the Cowboys have lost two of three and are off a beat down from the Saints. It is only late November so Tony Romo shouldn't be playing his worst football just yet but I think the Giants are the better team right now. The Cowboys are 1-4 on the road this year and Giants have won their last three in MetLife. It should be a close one but I can't help but image a late fourth quarter Tony Romo interception costing the Cowboys the game.

Patriots 34, Broncos 30 --- NE +2.5 The only thing I think of when I hear Peyton Manning in Foxboro, is Ty Law intercepting him about ten times during a snowy playoff game (It was the 2003 AFC Championship and Law only had three picks but ten sounded better). Peyton is 2-6 playing in New England against long-time rival Thomas F. Brady. The Patriots are 5-0 at home this season and the temperature at kickoff is going to be about 20 degrees. That's not exactly Peyton Manning weather. The Patriots rarely lose two games in a row and I'm sure TFB doesn't want to lose to Peyton in his building. Patriots win.

49ers 27, Redskins 24 --- In the past two weeks I have said both Colin Kaepernick and Bob Griffin III stink. They have this year. The Redskins season in pretty much finished but a Monday night home game might give them some motivation. The only problem is that the Ninerss have lost two in a row and cannot afford to fall to 6-5. I think the Niners defense will cause RG III trouble in the first half and the Niners will take an early lead and cruise to victory allowing the Redskins to backdoor cover.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 12 Thursday Night Pick

No video this week. I have a cold and my voice sounds turrible. I might make a video for the Sunday blog. But next Thursday is Thanksgiving so I promise a YouTube video for that.

Six takeaways from Week 11.

1. RGIII stinks

        This is starting to become a weekly thing for me. Each week I call a young quarterback awful. First it was Cam Newton, then he and the Panthers started winning. Then it was Colin Kaepernick, who didn't play too well in New Orleans. And now it's onto Robert Griffin III.
        I will say this about RG III, I'm not too sure if he's 100% and he probably should have taken more time to heal his knee. However, he has been terrible all season. Last year he only turned the ball over 8 times. He already has 15 turnovers this year. It also seems like he never does anything during the first half in games (5 TDs, 5 INTs). The only reason his stats aren't absolutely dreadful is due to the fact that he throws non-stop in the second half (52 more passing attempts than the 1st half) because they down by a few touchdowns. I'm also more nervous about RG III's future than I am about Kaepernick because he gets destroyed during games. I saw the play below when it happened. I thought he was dead. He could become Mike Vick. Extremely talented out of the pocket but he doesn't know how to take hits and he won't be able to stay healthy throughout his career.

       The Redskins are a debacle. I think Mike and Kyle Shanahan are running out of time in Washington because RG III is the future of the organization and right now the future looks very cloudy.

2. I learned nothing new about the Chiefs

        Coming into the game I knew the Chiefs had a really good defense and I still believe that. Only letting up 27 points to Peyton Manning and the Broncos isn't horrible. What's a little worrisome though is that the Chiefs haven't recorded a sack in the past two games. That's how they can beat teams with great QBs but if they can't create pressure they have no chance against teams like the Broncos or Patriots. Also before the game I didn't think they had the offense to keep up with the Broncos. That turned out to be true. When Montee Ball scored in the third quarter to make it 24-10 the game was over. Alex Smith is not built to play from behind.
        I'm not saying that the Chiefs 9-0 start was a fluke. I think they are a very good football team but there are three or four teams in the AFC that are clearly better than them at this point. The Chiefs might beat the Broncos in two weeks and possibly get the number one seed in the AFC but I would be shocked if they got to the Super Bowl.

3. The Panthers are a damn good team

      First off, let's mention the last play of the game. Was it a penalty? Yes. The Patriots did get kind of screwed but even if it was a penalty, holding or pass interference, there was no guarantee that the Patriots were automatically going to score on the final play and win the game. The truth of the matter is that the Carolina Panthers beat the Patriots just like the Jets did in week seven. Patriot fans can point to two blown calls costing them wins but their opponents deserved to win each game.
     Now onto the Panthers and the game. The Panthers defense is great. They have only allowed one first half touchdown all year. That's an incredible stat. Also anytime you can keep Lord Brady to 20 points or under you accomplished something. As for Cam Newton, he played great. The 14 yard run he had on third down, where he escaped about five Patriots was a phenomenal effort. The Panthers three touchdown drives were all over 80 yards long, including the game winning drive in the final five minutes. If Cam can keep playing like he has for the past six wins, the Panthers will be among the NFC elite.

4. Jim Schwartz is a hardo

       I got a couple of things to say about Jim. First off all I don't think the fake field goal costed the Lions the game. Sure it would have been logical to kick the field goal and go up by a touchdown but even though they failed, the Steelers started with the ball on their own three yard line. If the play had worked they would have gone up by 11 with 12 minutes left in the game, a lead they probably could have held onto. So I have no issue with the gamble on the road. 

      My issue with Jim Schwartz was during his press conference. He said, "Y'all say whatever you want about me. Ok. Don't say I'm scared. Cause we ain't." Ok... so your not scared. You're a tough guy. That's awesome. Calling a fake field goal has nothing to do with not being scared. Play smart. He's an intense guy but I'm starting to believe he's not the guy that will take the Lions to the next level. 

P.S. This is exactly how I feel about the Steelers right now.

They better not lose to the Browns like they did to the Raiders after their other two game win streak.

5. The Jets are something.

     I'm not sure what they are but they are something. I've been writing about the Jets all year it seems. I thought I finally had them figured out. They proved me wrong once again last Sunday. They got destroyed by Bills. Embarrassed frankly. Geno was awful, 8 for 23 with 3 interceptions. The defense forced no turnovers and had only one sack. They are now 5-5 and from week to week they are a completely different team. They seem to be the good Jets at home and bad Jets on the road. Next week in Baltimore I'd assume they might not play great but with the 2013 New York Jets you cannot assume anything.

6. Drew Brees has a rubber neck

      I've watched that GIF about 5 million times. I'm not sure how Drew BREEEEESSSSSS's head didn't come off. That's not the point of this though. How is that a penalty?

      Ahmad Brooks hit him right across the shoulder pads. Yes it looked violent but by the letter of the law I don't think that should have been called. The NFL is going way to far with protecting its players. The referees just throw flags if the play looks bad. This penalty costed the 49ers the game. I've been thinking and saying this for what seems to be a forever, but the NFL in five to ten years is going to be a completely different product. Roger Goodell and league have to be concerned about player safety and I understand that but they are taking it to far and the play on the field is starting to suffer because of it. 

Thursday Night Pick

Saints 34, Falcons 26 --- The Falcons have rolled over and died. They got wrecked by the Buccaneers last week. At one point they were losing 38-6 to a team with one win on the season. They have allowed over 30 points for the past three weeks. During their four game losing streak Matt Ryan has 9 interceptions. The only hope for the Falcons is if the Saints overlook this week because they play in Seattle on Monday night for week 13. Even if the Saints do that, they should still be able to leave Atlanta with their ninth win of the year.

NFL Week 11 Picks

After a horrible week nine of picking games I bounced back with an amazing week ten. I went 1--3 picking games and 4-0 for my spread picks. So that can only mean I'm due for a horrible
week.

Anyways, there are a ton of good and very important games this week, so onto the picks...

Overall: 90-55  Spread: 18-21-1

Steelers 24, Lions 23 --- PIT +2.5  The Lions are 6-3 but their past three games have been decided by only five total points. They are 2-1 in those games so they have the ability to win close games. I'm taking the Steelers to win this game because I think they will be able to control Calvin Johnson a little bit. Ike Taylor is actually a very good corner, who does play well against great receivers. Obviously Calvin might score a TD but I think the Steelers defense will have another strong performance. Also the Lions have only beaten the Steelers two times since 1966.

P.S. Steelers are wearing the worst throwbacks ever today. Brutal.

Jets 27, Bills 26 --- I once again have no idea which Jets team will show up today. They always win on odd numbered weeks, but they also always lose after a win. They won their last games against the Saints and they are off a bye week. They beat the Bills in week three 27-20, and the Bills have lost five of six. I'll take the Jets because they are the better team and Buffalo's offense looked horrible against the Steelers last week but it wouldn't shock me at all if the Jets lose.

Bears 28, Ravens 24 --- Even though the Bears don't have Jay Cutler, that shouldn't be a huge problem for their offense. Josh McCown has been great filling in. The Ravens are only 1-4 on the road and that win was against the Dolphins. I think the Bears are the more desperate team and they will get the win at home.

Bengals 20, Browns 10 --- The Bengals have lost two straight games in overtime and they lost to the Browns 17-6 in week four. I can't see them losing this game at home, where they are 4-0 this season. If they get this win they can basically knock the Browns out of the race for the division title.

Redskins 34, Eagles 30 --- WAS +4.5  I'm taking the Redskins in this one for a few reasons. First off the NFC East is such a mess that it would only make sense to let the Redskins right back in the division at 4-6. Another reason is that the Eagles are 0-4 at home this year and the Redskins should be well rested after playing a Thursday game in week ten. I think Nick Foles might finally drop back down to Earth for this game and finally thrown an interception.

Falcons 30, Bucs 27 --- My Super Bowl pick has to be one of the worst Super Bowl picks ever made. The Falcons are going to lose ten games this year. I'm not really sure why I'm taking them to beat the Bucs in Tampa today, considering they are 0-4 on the road this year. But I'm taking them because I can't see the Bucs winning two in a row.

Cardinals 27, Jaguars 17 --- The Cardinals are a sneaky 5-4 team in the NFC. If they win today and the Niners lose in New Orleans they will have the same record as San Francisco. I wouldn't have believed that at the beginning of the year. But the Cardinals have been beating the bad teams on their schedule so far. I think they get their third straight win in Jacksonville today.

Texans 30, Raiders 20 --- No Terrelle Pryor for the Raiders today, so former Penn Stater, Matt McGloin makes his first NFL start. Apparently the Raiders really like him but I'm not too sure how well he will do today on the road. I think Case Keenum and Texans finally break their seven game losing streak and get their third win of the year at home today.

Chargers 24, Dolphins 17 --- The Dolphins have lost five of six and I think their playoff hopes are fading. The Martin vs Incognito issue seems to be impacting the team, considering they couldn't beat Tampa Bay on Monday night. The Chargers are 4-5 also but they seem to be in every game they play. I trust Phil Rivers more than I do Ryan Tannehill at this point, so I'll take the Chargers.

49ers 30, Saints 28 --- SF +3  The Saints have been incredible all season at home. They are 5-0 this year and they just crushed the Cowboys 49-17. But they Cowboys are arguably they best team they've played at home. Their other four home wins are against the Falcons, Cardinals, Dolphins, and Bills. So today they face their toughest test, the 49ers, who are off a dismal offensive performance and a 10-9 loss to the Panthers. I'm picking the Niners in this one because I think the Saints might have a bit of a let down after recording 40 first downs last week and the Niners will not want to fall to 6-4.

Giants 27, Packers 20 --- I just don't see Scott Tolzien beating the now sort of good Giants in New Jersey. The G-Men have won three in a row and need to keep winning if they want to get into the playoffs, while the Packers seem to be sinking without Aaron Rodgers. Giants win.

Seahawks 28, Vikings 20 --- MIN +12.5 Seattle is 4-0 at home and 12-0 all-time under Russell Wilson. The Vikings are 0-4 on the road this season. Pretty simple. The Seahawks will win this game but similar to the Bucs game I think it might be somewhat close. If the Vikings can establish their run game they might be in the game.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 17 --- The fewest amount of points the Broncos have scored all year is 28, that happened last week against the Chargers. The most points the Chiefs have allowed is 17 to the Browns and Titans. Somethings gotta give. The Broncos are by far the best team the Chiefs will play so far this season. I do like the Chiefs defense a lot and even though Peyton Manning might be a little shaky on his ankle I can't see the Chiefs scoring enough points to beat the Broncos. Unless they can get a pick six, the Broncos should get the win at home.

Panthers 24, Patriots 23 --- Similar to the Chiefs and Broncos game somethings gotta give in this one. The last time we saw the Patriots they were scoring 55 god damn points against the Steelers. As for the Panthers, during their five game winning streak no team has reach 16 points. I'm going with the Panthers in this one because I think they can get to Tom Terrific. They sacked Kaepernick six times last week, so if they can do that again it could be difficult for TFB to get going. Also, as long as Cam doesn't turn the ball over he can rely on his defense at this point to carry them to a victory.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 11 Thursday Night Pick

Please watch the video above. My second attempt at a YouTube video. Tom Emanski wants you to watch it. Back to back to back times. 

Six takeaways from Week 10

1. Colin Kaepernick stinks

I wrote the exact same thing about Cam Newton after week 5, so if Kaepernick gets hot all of a sudden I will take credit for it. But right now the 49ers are last in the league in passing and Sunday against the Panthers they got held to 46 total passing yards. I understand the Panthers have a top three defense at this point but Kaepernick's entire season hasn't been good at all other than his week one performance against the Packers. In that game he threw for 412 yards with 3 TDS. Since then he hasn't thrown for over 252 yards and he's thrown 6 TDS and 6 interceptions. I know the Niners are built to run the ball more than other teams but in the past eight weeks Kaepernick has been nothing special. Frankly, if Alex Smith was the Niners QB on Sunday I think they would have found a way to win that game.

2. Are the Colts good or not?

Yes they are good but they weren't on Sunday. The Colts also are not as great as I thought they were after they beat the Broncos in week seven. A few weeks ago saying the Colts were the favorites in the AFC, wouldn't have been an ridiculous statement, considering they have wins over the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. But now after needing an amazing comeback against the Texans and getting smoked by the Rams at home, it certainly doesn't seem like they are in the top three of the AFC any longer.  The loss of Reggie Wayne seems to be a huge loss at this point. The Colts can basically clinch the AFC South tonight if they beat the Titans, so they should be playing in January again. I'm just no longer sure they make a deep run in the AFC playoffs.

P.S. Tavon Austin. Pretty, pretty, pretty good...and fast.

3. How are the Cardinals 5-4?

To be honest, I have no idea. They are ranked 22nd in offensive scoring. Carson Palmer has 15 interceptions with only 12 TDs. They have a -1 turnover margin. Their defense is pretty good ranking 12th, allowing 22 PPG. The Cardinals wins aren't tremendously impressive but their resume isn't the worst. They beat the Lions, Panthers (before the Panthers got hot, but still), Falcons, Texans, and Bucs. They are 4-1 at home and during their past two wins Palmer has only thrown one interception a game, which is an incredible feat for Carson. They play the Jaguars this week so they could be 6-4, which would give them more wins than last season (5). I think Bruce Arians deserves a lot of credit. He is 14-7 as an NFL Head Coach. Not too bad.

4. The 1976 Buccaneers and the 2008 Lions can pop champagne.

I'm not too sure if those teams celebrate like Mercury Morris and the 1972 Dolphins do, but if so they can drink now because they are officially safe from another team having the imperfect season. Both the Jaguars and Buccaneers got off the schnide this week. They have now made the chase for the number one pick in the draft much more complicated. Atlanta, Minnesota, and Houston are now just one game out. Jacksonville is worst team in the league but they appear to be playing somewhat hard under Gus Bradley.

P.S. Is Jadeveon Clowney still the automatic number one pick? I don't think so. The league is all about quarterbacks.

5. NFC East 2013 = NFC West 2010

I also wrote this exact same thing after week four. Does anybody even want to win this division? I guess you can argue the Eagles and Giants do at this point. The Cowboys are lucky they came back to beat Minnesota two weeks ago or else they would be 4-6 right now. The Redskins are pretty awful but they were 3-6 last year and still won the division so they've proven before that they aren't done. The next two weeks could help decide things in the East or it could create absolute chaos. The Cowboys play in New York in week 12, while the Redskins go to Philly on Sunday, where the Eagles are 0-4 this year. If the Redskins and Giants win, which is possible, every team will be under .500 and everybody could be within a half game of each other. I said in week four, that eight games could win this division. Right now a team might only need seven wins to clinch it.

6. AFC Wild Card Race

Five teams in the AFC are pretty much a lock to make the playoffs (Bengals are iffy right now but I think they will win the North) The bottom half of the AFC is pretty horrible. Here are the standings from 6 to 13.

6- New York Jets             5-4
7- Miami Dolphins           4-5
8- Tennessee Titans          4-5
9- Cleveland Browns        4-5
10- Baltimore Ravens       4-5
11- San Diego Chargers   4-5
12- Oakland Raiders         3-6
13- Pittsburgh Steelers      3-6 (only two games out, watch out Jets)

Eight teams fighting for one playoff spot (sure Oakland and Pittsburgh are looooooonnnnnng shots but crazier things have happened). I'm not too sure who gets in. I guess the favorites would have to be the Jets and Ravens. I'm also not too sure how many wins will get the job done. Nine maybe? Should be an interesting seven weeks.

Thursday Night Pick

Colts 21, Titans 17 --- The Titans have the Amish Rifle aka Ryan Fitzpatrick playing QB for the rest of the season now. I like Fitzpatrick but he's a bit of a turnover machine. Shockingly, he threw the ball 33 times against the Jaguars and didn't throw a pick. That can only mean he's due for few against the Colts. I just can't see the Colts laying another egg like they did against the Rams. They beat the Titans twice last year in close games, so I do think it will be tight but I think Andrew Luck will pull it off in the fourth quarter.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Not a good week of picking games last week. I went 5-7 and my spread picks went 1-3. Not good at all. In hindsight I probably shouldn't have picked the Bills or the Steelers to win. Oh well. Hopefully I'll do better this week.

By the way, now that the Steelers are officially horrible and the Red Sox season is over, I feel strange. What am I looking forward to now? I guess nothing until the Bruins start their playoff run (assuming they make it) or maybe UConn basketball.

Anyways, onto the picks...

Overall: 79-52  Spread: 14-21-1

Steelers 17, Bills 14 --- The Steelers are almost at rock bottom right now after letting up a double nickel to the Patriots. (I'm depressed about the 55 now. At first it was shock and anger, then I tried to deny it, but I certainly haven't accepted it yet). Anyways losing to the Bills would actually be rock bottom for the Steelers. If they lose and fall to 2-7, they might as well just lose out and try to get the 3rd pick in the draft.

P.S. 55 god damn points.

Seahawks 27, Falcons 21 --- The Seahawks haven't looked great in the past two weeks but they still beat the Rams and Bucs and are now 8-1. The Falcons are miserable. Matty Ice has thrown seven interceptions in their last two games and the Falcons have only scored 23 total points. In the past they were always great in the Georgia Dome but this isn't the same Falcons team anymore.

Lions 36 Bears 28 --- The Lions haven't won in Chicago since 2007 but they did beat the Bears in week four. In that game Jay Cutler had three interceptions and at one point in the third quarter the Lions were ahead 40-16. Cutler returns from injury this week after the Bears just beat the Packers on Monday Night. I think the Lions are the better team considering in week four, Calvin Johnson was limited with a knee injury and they only caught four passes. With a healthy Calvin the Lions might put up another 40 points.

Eagles 31, Packers 27 --- PHI +1 I just don't see the Packers winning with Seneca Wallace as their starting QB. Their running game has been very good all year but now that teams don't have to worry about defending Aaron Rodgers, it might get a little tougher to run. Also, the Eagles are 4-1 on the road and Nick Foles just had the best game of his life. As long as Foles avoids turning the ball over (which he has done all year, still zero interceptions) than the Eagles should be able to get the win in Lambeau.

Titans 24, Jaguars 10 --- I might be by myself on this but I think the Titans might be the final wild card team in the AFC. If they win this game they would be tied with the Jets at 5-4 but they beat the Jets head to head in week four. Three of their four losses are to the Chiefs, 49ers, and Seahawks (no shame in those L's). Plus in their final eight games they get Jacksonville twice, Oakland, Arizona, and Houston. They don't blow teams out but they have been winning with Jake Locker. Now that I'm saying all of this the Jaguars probably get their first win of the year.

Colts 27, Rams 20 --- STL -9.5 This spread is strange to me. Five of the Colts eight games have been decided by less than a touchdown. I know that are at home playing the 3-6 Rams but the Rams don't seem like a team that just lays down in games. In the past two games Zac Stacy has ran for 261 yards, sure they have lost both games but they were in the game late into the fourth quarter. The Colts will win this game but I think the Rams hang tough.

Giants 24, Raiders 14 --- The Giants might have finally figured things out before their bye week. At least on defense anyway. They only allowed seven points to both the Eagles and Vikings. This week the Raiders come across country to play a 1 o'clock game, never an easy task. The Raiders are also 0-3 on the road this year. The G-Men should be able to win this one and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Ravens 27, Bengals 24 ---  BAL +1.5 This game could pretty much determine the fate of the Ravens season. If they lose and fall to 3-6, while the Bengals move to 7-3 the AFC North crown is Cincy's. If the Ravens can win though they will be right back in the division and in the hunt for the final wild card spot. Andy Dalton is only 1-3 versus the Ravens, and that one win was week 17 of last year and the Ravens didn't play half of their starters. Today the Bengals are going to have to adjust to life without All-Pro Geno Atkins, which might finally let Ray Rice run the ball well. The Ravens need to prove that they are still the defending champs and get a win.

Panthers 21, 49ers 17 --- CAR +6 I know the 49ers are 6-2 and off a bye but look at the teams San Fran has beaten during their 5 game win streak, Rams, Texans, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars. Not exactly the greatest competition but you can say the same thing about the Panthers four game win streak (Vikings, Rams, Bucs, Falcons). I'm picking the Panthers for the simple reason that they have the best run defense in the league and the 49ers are primarily a run team. They rank 5th in rushing and 32nd in passing. Yes, last in passing even though they have future hall of fame QB Colin Kaepernick. Plus the Panthers have Jonathan Stewart back so their run game will only improve. I think Carolina proves to the league this Sunday that they are contenders.

Cardinals 28, Texans 23 --- Six straight losses and now Wade Phillips is your interim head coach. Things are not going well in Houston, other than maybe finding their new QB in Case Keenum. He's played well in the past two games but he still hasn't gotten a victory. The Cardinals are off a bye and are a much better team at home. The Cards also may have found a way to keep Carson Palmer from throwing three picks a game and that is Andre Ellington. He ran for 154 yards against the Falcons. So if the Cardinals are smart they keep the ball on the ground.

Broncos 34, Chargers 24 --- No John Fox. No Problem. I think his absence may actually help the Broncos in their first game without him. Win one for the Gipper. Plus Peyton Manning is the basically a player/coach so the offense is going to put up points. I'm still not too sure what the Chargers are but the Broncos are by the far the best team they will play so far this year. Broncos win.

Saints 30, Cowboys 28 --- The Cowboys are a funny team. They have won three of four but it always feels like the sky is falling whenever anybody talks about them. People focus so much on the negatives about Tony Romo that he gets no credit when he leads them 90 yards for a game winning touchdown. I think the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East, but with that being said, they aren't going into New Orleans and getting a win tonight. The Saints are 4-0 at home this year and are off a bad loss to the Jets.

Dolphins 26, Bucs 17 --- I'd imagine its been tough for the Dolphins locker room to focus on playing with the Incognito/Martin talk dominating the sports world but the field might be their sanctuary right now. The Dolphins are 4-4 and not a bad team. Last Thursday without Incognito and Martin they had their first 100 yard rusher of the season as they broke their four game losing streak. They are certainly capable of going into Tampa and getting their fifth win.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 10 Thursday Night Pick

Please check out the YouTube video above. I'm not sure how many more videos like that I'll make but if I hear a lot of people liked it then maybe I'll keep doing them for Thursdays.

Six takeaways from Week 9.

1. Peyton Manning, George Blanda, Y.A. Tittle, Joe Kapp, Sid Luckman, and Nick Foles.

Nick Foles had the game of his life against the Raiders. Seven touchdowns in one game. A feat that has only been accomplished six other times in the history of the league. Frankly, he could have shattered the record but Chip Kelly didn't coach like he was still at Oregon. What I am really surprised about is how Foles hasn't been named the starter for Sunday's game. I understand that this was sort of a fluke game and Foles isn't about to become Peyton Manning already, but he's clearly the hot hand and he got the Iggles offense back on track. I think going back to Mike Vick against the Packers or the Redskins in two weeks would be a mistake. Let Foles have his chance.

2. Richie Incognito

He got suspended at Nebraska multiple times. He transferred to Oregon and got dismissed after one week. The Rams cut him in 2009 because he head butted a few Titans players and then had a sideline confrontation with his head coach. Then the Bills picked him up for a few games and didn't re-sign him. Then he made a Pro Bowl with the Dolphins in 2012, and here we are with him being suspended by the team and most likely done in Miami and in the NFL. Mr. Incognito definitely has his share of problems and deserves to be suspended for bullying Jonathan Martin. Based on his texts and voicemails he clearly went over the line with hazing Martin. Sure, Martin might be a little to blame, or other Dolphins leaders should have stepped in, but the bottom line is that Richie Incognito is not a great human being and now he might find himself being unemployed for awhile.

3. The Carolina Panthers are for real

Four straight wins and in each game they have held their opponents to under 15 points. They are now 5-3 and only one game back of the Saints in the NFC South. Their defense is one of the best in the league. They only allow 13.3 points per game, which ranks second in the NFL. Offensively they have scored over 30 points in the past four games and last week Jonathan Stewart played for the first time this year. Cam Newton has been very good since the Arizona game in week five, scoring 10 total touchdowns and turning the ball over only twice. This week they get a tough test though going to San Francisco to play the Niners off a bye week.

4. The mystery that is the New York Jets

Week 5: Jets 30, Falcons 28 --- Monday Night in Atlanta isn't easy even if the Falcons stink
Week 6: Steelers 19, Jets 6  --- The Jets looked pretty terrible
Week 7: Jets 30, Patriots 27 --- Sure they got help from the refs but they outplayed the Pats
Week 8: Bengals 49, Jets 9 --- The score says it all for that one
Week 9: Jets 26, Saints 20 --- Drew BREEEEESSSS might have been down some weapons but the Jets D-Line pressured him all day

If that's not a roller coaster season, I don't know what is. I will say this though, when the Jets are having a good day, they are a really good football team. Heading into the season when you saw that five game stretch, you'd be liar if you said you could see them going 3-2. But that's exactly what they've done. They have their bye week this week and then their last seven games are not against great teams (Panthers might be). The Jets have a realistic shot of being the last wild card in the AFC.

5. NFC North

With Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone and the Packers losing to DA BEARS, I think the NFC North is officially up for grabs (minus the 1-7 Vikings). The Lions, Bears, and Packers are all 5-3 but at the moment only the Lions have their starting quarterback healthy, which could give them a huge advantage in the upcoming weeks. Their next four games are against the Bears, Steelers, Bucs, and Packers. Assuming Jay Cutler and Rodgers (although in four weeks Rodgers might be back) aren't going to play in those match-ups the Lions have a chance to win all of those games.

6. The Steelers are horrible.

55 god damn points. They are just bad. I can't see them winning more than five games at this point. The thing that makes it worse is that I don't see it getting better anytime soon. They need to make a lot of changes if they want to get back to winning Super Bowls.


Thursday Night Pick

Vikings 31, Redskins 28 --- I know the Vikings are bad but last week they finally realized that Adrian Peterson is still on their team. For the first time since September he got over 20 carries, and guess what happened? He ran for 140 yards and a TD. If the Vikings can remember this simple game plan they have a shot to beat the Redskins, who rank 22nd in run defense. I'm also just not sure which Redskin team will show up. They are 3-2 in their last five games but it's a bit like the Jets, the wins aren't beautiful and the losses are ugly. I'll take the Vikings at home.

NFL Week 9 Picks

First off let's talk about the 2013 World Series Champions. Just an incredible season by the Sox. It's crazy to think that only last year they won 69 games. They were a special team this year. It was great to watch. Also, David Ortiz is a hall of famer in my book, I'm not too sure if he's done steroids (he's probably dabbled), but he is on the Mount Rushmore of Boston Sports Legends now. He was unbelievable in the World Series and the postseason again. He is the most clutch hitter I've ever seen.

Anyways, back to football. Hopefully the Steelers can end all the good times in Massachusetts today with a win over the Patriots today.

Overall:  74-45  Spread: 13-18-1

Bills 24, Chiefs 21 --- BUF +3.5 The Bills have been outscored at home 93-92 in four games this year, so I expect this one to be a close one. This is also the Chiefs first road game since October 6th and the Chiefs have always been a better home team. I have a feeling the Bills might circle the wagons today to allow Mercury Morris to pop champagne for the 1972 Dolphins. Also watch out for Mario Williams, he has 11 sacks this year, second in the league to Robert Mathis, who has 11.5.

Cowboys 27, Vikings 14 --- I think if the Cowboys were to lose this game, Jerry Jones might finally become the head coach. Well, maybe not but he would probably contemplate firing Jason Garrett at least. The Boys should not lose to the Vikings, who have been horrible since beating the Steelers. Their quarterback situation is a mess and they only give Adrian Peterson the ball 10-15 times a game now for some reason. Cowboys should win at home easily.

Titans 24, Rams 17 --- The Titans are off a bye and the Rams just played the Seahawks on Monday night. Teams that played the Seahawks in the previous week are 1-6 this year. So I think the Titans have an advantage coming into this game. Also Jake Locker should be 100% healthy now and before he got hurt the Titans were a 3-1 football team, so they probably still believe they have a shot to make a run this year, unlike the Rams with Kellen Clemens starting.

Saints 27, Jets 24 --- NYJ +6.5 The Jets got killed last week by the Bengals, so they should play well today against the Saints based on how their season is going. One week bad. The next good. The problem today is that they play the 6-1 Saints. The Saints have been good on the road this year also, they won in Chicago and were five seconds away from beating the Pats. I still think the Jets will be in this game but if Geno turns the ball over more than twice they could be in trouble.

Chargers 34, Redskins 28 --- The Redskins have allowed over 40 points in their past two games and last week RGIII only threw for 132 yards. So I'm not too sure what the Redskins deal is. They aren't too good. The Chargers are a surprising 4-3 and off a bye week. It's never easy for a west coast team to come across the country for a 1pm game but I think Phil Rivers will get the job done today.

Panthers 28, Falcons 14 --- The Panthers have won three straight and their defense has been great. They haven't allowed more than 15 points in those three games. They play the Falcons at home today, who are 0-3 on the road and seem to be a lost cause this year. They haven't had a 100 yard rusher this year and last week against the Cardinals Matt Ryan lead the team with 13 rushing yards. No run game and no Julio Jones is a recipe for disaster against a good defense. Cam Newton and Panthers get their fourth in a row.

Raiders 17, Eagles 13 --- The Eagles new unstoppable Chip Kelly offense has scored 10 points in the last two weeks. The Iggles have also had issues keeping their QB's on the field. Nick Foles will get the start today as the Raiders are going for their third straight win at home. DAY RAYDAAS looked very good in the first half against the Steelers, thanks to Terrelle Pryor's 93 yard run but other than that they did nothing on offense. I think this one will be a low scoring game that could go either way but I'll give the edge to the Raiders.

Seahawks 34, Bucs 14 --- The 0-7 Bucs in Seattle against a team that hasn't lost at home since 2011. I'll take the Seahawks.

Ravens 28, Browns 20 --- BAL -2 The Browns haven't beat the Ravens since November 2007. That's 11 wins in a row for Baltimore. The Ravens just had their bye week and the Browns have lost three in a row. I see win number 12 for the Ravens happening today.

Steelers 26, Patriots 24 --- PIT +6.5 This is not a biased pick, maybe it is but I just have a feeling I know what the Steelers are this year. They beat the Ravens to make people think they still have a shot this year, then they go to Oakland and lose. So now everybody thinks they are horrible again when they have to go to New England to play the 6-2 Patriots. So obviously that means they will win today. If Shaun Suisham could have made a field goal the Steelers would be on a three game winning streak right now and people might be giving them more of shot today. The Steelers defense has been good this year and they seem to finally be able to get turnovers. If Big Ben protects the ball and Le'Veon Ball can run the ball consistently the Steelers will be in this game. The Steelers have already beaten the Jets and Ravens so I wouldn't mind having a win over the Patriots.

Colts 31, Texans 21 --- There a quite a few people that think the Texans have a chance in this game just because Reggie Wayne is hurt. I understand he was a huge part of the offense but he was only one wide receiver. The Colts have also had a bye week to figure out who will replace Wayne so I don't see his absence being pivotal in this game. The Texans aren't a very good football team right now and with Case Keenum starting, I think they are in big trouble.

Packers 31, Bears 20 --- The Bears have lost three of four and now they don't have Jay Cutler for this Monday night game in Lambeau. The Packers on the other hand have won four in a row and seem to be one of the best teams in the NFC. I think the Pack take advantage of a mediocre Bears defense and begin to separate themselves from the Bears in the NFC North.

Enjoy the games people.