Thursday, November 14, 2013

Week 11 Thursday Night Pick


Please watch the video above. My second attempt at a YouTube video. Tom Emanski wants you to watch it. Back to back to back times. 


Six takeaways from Week 10

1. Colin Kaepernick stinks

I wrote the exact same thing about Cam Newton after week 5, so if Kaepernick gets hot all of a sudden I will take credit for it. But right now the 49ers are last in the league in passing and Sunday against the Panthers they got held to 46 total passing yards. I understand the Panthers have a top three defense at this point but Kaepernick's entire season hasn't been good at all other than his week one performance against the Packers. In that game he threw for 412 yards with 3 TDS. Since then he hasn't thrown for over 252 yards and he's thrown 6 TDS and 6 interceptions. I know the Niners are built to run the ball more than other teams but in the past eight weeks Kaepernick has been nothing special. Frankly, if Alex Smith was the Niners QB on Sunday I think they would have found a way to win that game.

2. Are the Colts good or not?

Yes they are good but they weren't on Sunday. The Colts also are not as great as I thought they were after they beat the Broncos in week seven. A few weeks ago saying the Colts were the favorites in the AFC, wouldn't have been an ridiculous statement, considering they have wins over the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. But now after needing an amazing comeback against the Texans and getting smoked by the Rams at home, it certainly doesn't seem like they are in the top three of the AFC any longer.  The loss of Reggie Wayne seems to be a huge loss at this point. The Colts can basically clinch the AFC South tonight if they beat the Titans, so they should be playing in January again. I'm just no longer sure they make a deep run in the AFC playoffs.

P.S. Tavon Austin. Pretty, pretty, pretty good...and fast.




3. How are the Cardinals 5-4?

To be honest, I have no idea. They are ranked 22nd in offensive scoring. Carson Palmer has 15 interceptions with only 12 TDs. They have a -1 turnover margin. Their defense is pretty good ranking 12th, allowing 22 PPG. The Cardinals wins aren't tremendously impressive but their resume isn't the worst. They beat the Lions, Panthers (before the Panthers got hot, but still), Falcons, Texans, and Bucs. They are 4-1 at home and during their past two wins Palmer has only thrown one interception a game, which is an incredible feat for Carson. They play the Jaguars this week so they could be 6-4, which would give them more wins than last season (5). I think Bruce Arians deserves a lot of credit. He is 14-7 as an NFL Head Coach. Not too bad.

4. The 1976 Buccaneers and the 2008 Lions can pop champagne.

I'm not too sure if those teams celebrate like Mercury Morris and the 1972 Dolphins do, but if so they can drink now because they are officially safe from another team having the imperfect season. Both the Jaguars and Buccaneers got off the schnide this week. They have now made the chase for the number one pick in the draft much more complicated. Atlanta, Minnesota, and Houston are now just one game out. Jacksonville is worst team in the league but they appear to be playing somewhat hard under Gus Bradley.

P.S. Is Jadeveon Clowney still the automatic number one pick? I don't think so. The league is all about quarterbacks.

5. NFC East 2013 = NFC West 2010

I also wrote this exact same thing after week four. Does anybody even want to win this division? I guess you can argue the Eagles and Giants do at this point. The Cowboys are lucky they came back to beat Minnesota two weeks ago or else they would be 4-6 right now. The Redskins are pretty awful but they were 3-6 last year and still won the division so they've proven before that they aren't done. The next two weeks could help decide things in the East or it could create absolute chaos. The Cowboys play in New York in week 12, while the Redskins go to Philly on Sunday, where the Eagles are 0-4 this year. If the Redskins and Giants win, which is possible, every team will be under .500 and everybody could be within a half game of each other. I said in week four, that eight games could win this division. Right now a team might only need seven wins to clinch it.

6. AFC Wild Card Race

Five teams in the AFC are pretty much a lock to make the playoffs (Bengals are iffy right now but I think they will win the North) The bottom half of the AFC is pretty horrible. Here are the standings from 6 to 13.

6- New York Jets             5-4
7- Miami Dolphins           4-5
8- Tennessee Titans          4-5
9- Cleveland Browns        4-5
10- Baltimore Ravens       4-5
11- San Diego Chargers   4-5
12- Oakland Raiders         3-6
13- Pittsburgh Steelers      3-6 (only two games out, watch out Jets)

Eight teams fighting for one playoff spot (sure Oakland and Pittsburgh are looooooonnnnnng shots but crazier things have happened). I'm not too sure who gets in. I guess the favorites would have to be the Jets and Ravens. I'm also not too sure how many wins will get the job done. Nine maybe? Should be an interesting seven weeks.

Thursday Night Pick




Colts 21, Titans 17 --- The Titans have the Amish Rifle aka Ryan Fitzpatrick playing QB for the rest of the season now. I like Fitzpatrick but he's a bit of a turnover machine. Shockingly, he threw the ball 33 times against the Jaguars and didn't throw a pick. That can only mean he's due for few against the Colts. I just can't see the Colts laying another egg like they did against the Rams. They beat the Titans twice last year in close games, so I do think it will be tight but I think Andrew Luck will pull it off in the fourth quarter.

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