NFL Week 4 Picks

The NFL returns to London today. Unfortunately for the Brits they get to witness teams with a 1-5 combined record. There are also two more games in Wembley this season and I for one have finally embraced the possibility of a team being in London. Why not? Hell, give 'em two teams. If the Brits can support them it would be pretty cool to have a team from across the pond play in the NFL. Can you imagine a Super Bowl matchup of the Dallas Cowboys vs. the London Redcoats? Not that the Cowboys are getting to a Super Bowl anytime soon but you get the point.  

Another rough week picking games for week three. I once again went 8-8 for outright picks and a stinky 1-3 on spreads. Time to turn it around. Onto the picks...

Overall:  28-20  Spread: 6-7

Steelers 24, Buccaneers 20 --- TB +7.5 I have a bad feeling this game is going to be closer than most expect. The Bucs were horrible against the Falcons last week but they are on a long rest, which could help them. The Steelers are off a big win and return home, so it wouldn't shock me if they start slow and struggle to get a win against an inferior team.

Bears 30, Packers 20 --- I'm selling all my Packers stock. I don't think they are very good and I don't see them going into Chicago and getting a win. The Bears didn't look great against the Jets on Monday but they got the win and have now won two in a row after their opening day loss to the Bills. The Bears secondary is hurting, which could be a problem but rookie Kyle Fuller has been very good to start his career.

Texans 27, Bills 17 --- HOU -3 Both teams are 2-1 after losing last week. I think the Texans are the better team. The Bills weren't horrible against the Chargers last week but I'm starting to get the feeling that they just aren't very good despite their decent start to the season. I'll take the Texans at home. The Texans have also outscored the Bills 52-19 in their last two meetings.

Colts 36, Titans 14 --- IND -7.5 The Colts made me look bad last week by blowing out the Jaguars despite me saying it could be a close one. I also picked the Titans to cover the spread in Cincinnati but that didn't go too well. The Colts are the better team and maybe they figured things out last week against the Jags. They should win this one easily.

Panthers 23, Ravens 20 --- This one is a toss up. I think the Panthers get the win though. They didn't look good against the Steelers last Sunday but they were also without two running backs and then Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert got hurt in the game. If they establish their run game against Baltimore they should be in it. Then just hope Joe FLACCCCOOOO doesn't throw up his patented deep ball, as he hopes for a pass interference multiple times.

Jets 24, Lions 20 --- NYJ +1.5 Despite losing at home last week to the Bears the Jets are still 7-3 at home with Geno Smith as their QB. The Lions are off a nice home win over the Packers but it always seems like the Lions can never put together back-to-back good weeks. As long as Geno doesn't throw another pick six and they don't get any bad calls against them they should be in the game. I'll take the Jets to bounce back after two straight losses.

Raiders 20, Dolphins 17 --- The seem to be a mess at moment. Ryan Tannehill is playing today in London but he could be on a short leash. I've never figured out the Dolphins. If I pick them to win, they lose and vice versa. The Raiders have been bad through three weeks but they hung close to the Patriots last week. Maybe I'm reading into the Tannehill situation but I think it will hurt them this week, especially when playing over the pond.

Chargers 31, Jaguars 14 --- Chargers are good. Jaguars stink. This one shouldn't be all that close unless Blake Bortles is a miracle worker.

Falcons 30, Vikings 24 --- The line in this game stinks. The Falcons are a three point favorite against Teddy Bridgewater making his first NFL start. The Vikings have lost two in a row and the Falcons are off an impressive victory. It would make sense if the Falcons win this one big but the line has my mind very confused. That being said, I'll still take the Falcons on the road.

49ers 27, Eagles 24 --- It wouldn't shock me at all if the Eagles win this game and improve to 4-0 but  I can't see the Niners losing three in a row. I just can't. Colin Kaepernick has not been great to start the year, throwing only four touchdowns to three interceptions. The Eagles have not had good starts to any of their games yet. That could hurt them if they do that today because the Niners will attempt to take the air out of the ball with their run game. I could be wrong and the Niners just aren't that good, but I'm not giving up on them yet.

Saints 31, Cowboys 27 --- The Cowboys have two in a row but their defense is still an issue. They let up 31 points last week to the Austin Davis lead Rams. Their two wins have been against the Titans and Rams, so who knows how good the Boys are just yet. I'll take the Saints to win in JerryWorld because they need it more. They can't fall to 1-3 while the Falcons and Panthers could potentially be 3-1.

Patriots 20, Chiefs 14 --- I'm not sure of what to make of the Patriots so far. Their two wins are over the Vikings and Raiders. They didn't look too impressive last week but they won, which is what they always do. They are going to end up with 12 wins or so but I don't know if they are really that good. Their offense has been very shaky and maybe Lord Brady's days are numbered. Writing this I'm realizing that I'm going to be wrong and TFB will probably throw for 400 yards and have four touchdowns. I'll take the Patriots on Monday night because they are indeed still the Patriots.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 4 Thursday Night Pick

Here are five takeaways from week three and also a pick for the Giants vs. Redskins game tonight.

1. Bengals Good / Packers Bad

The Bengals are the best team in the AFC at the moment. At home they are very tough to beat because they don't let their opponents score. In two home games this year they have allowed 17 total points. Last season they went 8-0 (before the playoffs) in Cincy and only allowed two teams to score over 20 points. The will inevitably lose their first playoff game but they have a chance to be the number one seed in the AFC. As for the Packers and Aaron Rodgers telling fans to relax, they are in trouble. They could very easily be 0-3 had the Jets not allowed them to come back and win in week two. They play in Chicago this week. If they fall to 1-3 and 0-2 in division play, it is going to be an uphill battle to get to 8-8, let alone making the playoffs.

2. What Are the Dolphins Doing to Tannehill?

The 'Phins play in London this Sunday against the Raiders, however nobody seems to know who will be under center for the Dolphins. Third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not been announced the starter by coach Joe Philbin yet and Matt Moore is rumored to be in the running for the week four start. None of this makes any sense. Sure Tannehill only completed 48% of his passes against the Chiefs last week, but he threw no interceptions and how much of the blame should be on Tannehill, who is in a new system. It's his third year but it seems far too soon to call it quits on the Tannehill experiment. Personally, I don't think Philbin is the man for the job down there but that's above my pay grade.

3. Bortles Service

The Jaguars are in the running for the worst team in the league once again. In their three losses, they have yet to lose by less than three possessions. Thankfully it's Blake Bortles time to play. I never understood why the Jags were so quick to dismiss the possibility of Bortles playing over Chad Henne this year. Your team stinks, why not take a look at your future quarterback. It's not like Bortles is small and injury prone like Johnny Manziel. The Jaguars play the Chargers this week, so they are looking at 0-4, but at least we get to see Big Ben II on the field.

4. Rex Ryan's Time is Up

The Jets have found ways to lose the past two games and it doesn't seem like Rexy is too concerned about it. In week two the Jets sideline called a timeout before a 4th down play that turned into a touchdown and on Monday night the Jets returned a fumble for a touchdown but the play was ruled dead at the spot of the fumble. Both times Rexy sounded like a typical Jet fan saying things like, that's just our fashion and those type of things always happen to us. Well then fix something dude! If you allow the culture to always be "Why us?", things are going to go badly eventually. I've always liked Rex but I think it's time to move on from him and Geno.

5. Maybe the Steelers Are Good?

After the Ravens smoked the Steelers in week two I was convinced we were looking at another 8-8 season or even worse. They looked so atrocious in Baltimore that I expected them to get crushed by the 2-0 Panthers last Sunday. But somehow they dominated the defending NFC South champs in their own building. Now I don't know what to think. They are the definition of a Jekyll and Hyde football team. Their next two games are against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. They should win those two games to get to 4-1, but for some reason I think they lose one of those games. In conclusion the Steelers have my mind in a pretzel.

Thursday Night Pick

Redskins 31, Giants 21 --- WAS -3.5 So far this year road teams are 0-3 ATS on Thursday night games. In fact all of the road teams have lost by 20 or more points. I'll take the points and the Redskins at home tonight. In the past two games with Kirk Cousins the Skins have scored 41 and 34 points. The G-Men finally got their first win of the season last week and they finally scored more than 14 points as they beat the Texans 30-17. They better score a lot of points tonight because the Redskins certainly will. 

NFL Week 3 Picks

Not a great week two picking games. I went 8-8 outright and 2-2 for spreads. Based on my college football wagers yesterday I'm due for a rebound today.

Overall: 20-12  Spreads: 5-4

Bills 24, Chargers 23 --- The Chargers proved last week that they are a very good team. The Bills still remain unproven at 2-0, however I'll take them to win today at home. The Chargers are due for a let down after their big win over the Seahawks. Plus the cross country trip to play a one o'clock game won't be easy.

Rams 27, Cowboys 21 --- STL +2.5 The Cowboys looked good last week defeating the Titans. So that clearly means they are due for a stinker. The Rams beat the Bucs, who stink, last Sunday with some guy named Austin Davis playing quarterback. I just have a feeling the Rams are going to win this one.

Eagles 31, Redskins 28 --- Personally I think the Redskins will be better with Kirk Cousins playing but that doesn't mean they will beat the Eagles in Philly today. They might keep it close and cover the spread but in the end the Iggles should walk away with the win.

Texans 21, Giants 17 --- A lot of people are picking the Giants to win this one. I picked the G-Men to win last week and they couldn't even beat the Drew Stanton lead Cardinals. Therefore, I am done with you Giants. I'm picking the Texans. They aren't getting much credit for beating the Raiders and Redskins but they have only allowed 20 points in those two games. I don't see why they won't be able to shut down Eli today in JetLife.

Saints 31, Vikings 17 --- The Saints finally get to play at home and they desperately need to get a win. The Vikings have been in turmoil with the decision to re-instate Adrian Peterson, only to banish him likely for the year. The Saints should get off to a hot start and not look back in this one.

Bengals 27, Titans 24 --- TEN +6.5 The Bengals looked great last week as they crushed the Falcons. The Titans got roughed at home by the Cowboys. All of that should mean the Bengals should win easily to get to 3-0 right? Nope, the Titans will keep this one close.

Browns 21, Ravens 17 --- I'm buying the Browns. They could easily be 2-0 had they not had a miserable first half against the Steelers. The Brownies always want revenge against the Old Brownies who moved to Baltimore. As long as Brian Hoyer doesn't turn the ball over the Browns should have a good chance to take down the Ravens.

Packers 35, Lions 28 --- Since 2000 the Packers are 23-5 against the Lions. Sure some of those years the Lions were turrible but they have trouble beating the Packers. I have a feeling Aaron Rodgers is going to have a huge game today. If they Lions want to win they better be able to outscore the Packers.

Colts 27, Jaguars 21 --- At 0-2 maybe the Colts aren't as good as everyone thought they were. They have Andrew Luck and that's about it. The Jaguars have been pretty awful to start the year but they finally get to play at home in front of their 30 or so fans who swim in pools while watching the game. For some reason the Jaguars will keep this one close.

Patriots 38, Raiders 14 --- NE -14 The Raiders are really bad. The Patriots should crush them today at home. I'm taking the 14 points and I know I'll be wrong. Somehow the Patriots will screw me over and not cover the spread because that's just the Patriots. On paper though I just don't see the Raiders giving the Patriots any type of challenge.

49ers 28, Cardinals 20 --- The 49ers have been great after losses under Jim Harbaugh. They are 10-3 after loss and the Cardinals are going to have to rely on Drew Stanton again. I'll take the Niners in this one because I can't see them falling to 1-2, while the Cards improve to 3-0.

Seahawks 31, Broncos 17 --- SEA -4.5 I expect the Super Bowl rematch to go how the actual Super Bowl did. The Seahawks will out-physical the Broncos. They will get to Peyton Manning and the Seattle crowd will be going nuts throughout the game. Russell Wilson won't turn the ball over and the Seahawks will make a few big plays on defense.

Dolphins 21, Chiefs 14 --- This is the first time I've picked the Dolphins to win in forever, so that's probably not a good thing for the Dolphins. In all seriousness though I don't think the Chiefs will pose much of threat without Jamaal Charles. The Dolphins should be able to control the Chiefs offense. As long as Ryan Tannehill doesn't have any bad turnovers the Dolphins should be able to get their second home win of the season.

Panthers 24, Steelers 12 --- Maybe this is just some reverse psychology about the Steelers. If I say they are going to lose badly by kicking four field goals, I won't be too upset when they actually lose to the Panthers. But if the Steelers win somehow, I'll be booking tickets to see them play in the Super Bowl. It's a win/win for me now.

Bears 24, Jets 17 --- I'm not too sure why the Jets are a two point favorite in this game. Something is very fishy about that. Either way I'm picking the Bears to win outright. Jay Cutler is the superior quarterback and he should have a good night against the Jets secondary. If Geno turns the ball over multiple times the Bears should take advantage and get the win.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 3 Thursday Night Pick

Here are five takeaways from week two and also a pick for the Buccaneers vs. Falcons game tonight.

1. The NFL Debacle

How stupid are some NFL players? I mean Jonathan Dwyer, have you not been paying attention to what has been going on in the league the past month? He deserves to be kicked out of the league for sheer stupidity. Ray Rice has been completely forgotten thanks to Adrian Peterson, Greg Hardy, and now Dwyer. The Commish doesn't really appear to be doing anything either. The Panthers and Vikings finally stepped up and at least won't play Hardy or Peterson. Sponsors are finally starting to comment at the NFL's lack of action. It's chaos at the moment and Roger "The Goods" Goodell is showing no leadership whatsoever, therefore people will not stop talking about these issues.

2. The Steelers Stink

The Steelers have been outscored 50-9 in their past six quarters. They haven't scored a touchdown since the second quarter of week one. The defense can't stop a nose bleed. The Brownies and Ravens did whatever they pleased against the supposedly younger and faster defense. It's a miracle that the Steelers aren't 0-2. I'm not sure if the Steelers will ever look as good as they did in the first 30 minutes of the season again. I doubt they win this week in Carolina. 8-8 here we come for the third straight year.

3. Eli Manning Stinks

Eli is very lucky that he has two Super Bowl rings on his hand or people would be calling for his job. After 27 interceptions last year, he has already throw four in two games this season. The Giants are 0-2 and it doesn't seem like they are going to get any better. Maybe the Giants just aren't a very good team around him anymore, but something has gone wrong with Eli.

4. 2-0 Teams I'm Not Buying

Seven teams have yet to lose a game. However two of them are somewhat suspicious. The Bills still have a lot to prove before I'll call them contenders. Beating the Chargers this week at home would be a good step towards that. I am also not buying the Texans just yet. Their defense has been very good so far but they beat the Redskins and the Raiders. Looking ahead at their schedule they have a chance to be the Chiefs last year (Giants, Bills, Cowboys are their next three). Until they take down the Colts though, the Texans will have more to prove.

5. 0-2 Teams in Big Trouble

There are also seven 0-2 teams in the NFL. I think all but one of them are done. Therefore the Giants, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Raiders are out. I also think the Chiefs and Saints are cooked. The Chiefs have now gone 2-8 since their 9-0 start last year. I don't see them making it back to the playoffs. I think the Saints are out also. The NFC is the tougher conference and digging themselves a two game hole will sink them. They basically need to go 10-4 or 11-3 to make the playoffs, which won't be easy with two games left against the Panthers, also the 49ers, Packers, Bengals, and Ravens. The only 0-2 team that has a chance to bounce back is the Colts, partly due to their weaker division.

Thursday Night Pick

Falcons 31, Buccaneers 17 --- The ship has sailed on the Bucs high hopes this season after losing to the Rams at home last week. They just aren't very good in my opinion. Josh McCown is a backup, not a starter. The Falcons had a rough outing in Cincinnati last Sunday and their defense just isn't very good. With that being said, I'll take the Falcons at home and I'd lean for taking the -6.5 spread because home teams on Thursday have had success so far this year and in general.

NFL Week 2 Picks

I had a good first week picking games but week two hasn't started off to well thanks to the Steelers being horrible on Thursday. At least my week hasn't been as bad as Roger Goodell's has been. The Ray Rice story finally appeared to be settling down after the game on Thursday and then Adrian Peterson gets arrested for beating his kid on Friday. Not a good week for the powerful National Football League.

Anyways, onto the picks...

Overall: 12-4  Spread: 3-2

Bills 23, Dolphins 21 --- Both teams are a surprising 1-0 after upset wins last Sunday. I saw neither of them coming. I'll take the Bills at home in this one because they should have the ability to run the ball and take away the Dolphins pass rush, which was so crucial in their victory over the mighty Patriots. I'm also about to be back on the Bills bandwagon full time, so get ready for that if they win.

Redskins 17, Jaguars 10 --- Everybody is really down on the Redskins after scoring only six points last week in Houston. However they only let the Texans offense score 10 points, the other touchdown came off a blocked punt. Last week the Skins fumbled twice in the red zone, so it they can avoid costly turnovers and at least put some points on the board they should be able to beat the Jaguars. Play Bortles and maybe you'd get a win Jacksonville, just saying.

Titans 30, Cowboys 24 --- Based on the performances of both teams last week this should be an easy game to predict. The Titans went into Arrowhead and crushed the Chiefs, while the Cowboys got crushed at home by the Niners. I'll pick the Titans because I'm starting to think they have the potential to be good this year but if Tony Romo can avoid throwing multiple interceptions the Cowboys should be in the game.

Giants 20, Cardinals 17 --- NYG +1 I could be dead wrong about this game but I think the Giants get their first win of the season. I just don't trust west coast teams playing on the east coast at 1 PM. Both teams are on a short week, but the Cardinals may be a little spent after coming back in the fourth quarter to beat the Chargers in week one. Plus can Eli really be has bad as he was on Monday night all year?...Actually, yeah probably. Still picking the G-Men.

Patriots 27, Vikings 21 --- If Adrian Peterson was playing in this game I might have gone with the Vikings. He is out though and I can see the Patriots just sitting back and waiting for Matt Cassel to make a mistake or two. Even before Peterson was announced inactive I would have had a hard time saying that the Patriots are going to start the year 0-2. TFB will get the job done today in Minnesota, as long as Cordarrelle Patterson doesn't go off.

Saints 24, Browns 21 --- CLE +6  Maybe the Steelers defense just stinks and I should not be impressed with the Brownies but last week in the second half they were the superior team. Thankfully, they dug themselves too big of a hole and didn't win but I think they might hang tough with the Saints today. Drew BREEEESSSS has never been great on the road and the Dawg Pound should be loud today because the Brownies season isn't officially over already.

Bengals 26, Falcons 21 --- The Bengals kicked five field goals in week one against the Ravens. If they want to beat the Falcons, who scored four touchdowns last week, they will need to put the ball in the end zone and not settle for Mike Nugent kicks. I'll pick the Bungals since they are at home but it wouldn't surprise me if the Falcons win.

Panthers 24, Lions 17 --- I'll take the Panthers at home with Cam Newton in this one. I've always been of the mindset that a great defense can stop a talented offense. The Panthers only allowed 14 points last week, so if they can hold the Lions near the low 20's or under they should be able to score enough points to start 2-0.

Bucs 20, Rams 17 --- STL +6 The Rams got smoked last week by the Vikings. They lost Chris Long for 8-10 weeks and Shaun Hill is banged up. Therefore the improved Buccaneers squad should win this game easily at home. However, I don't see that happening. The Rams defense is better than they were last week. Against the Vikings the Rams had to give up on the run game due to their huge deficit. If they can start well and establish their running game, the Rams should be in this one.

Seahawks 27, Chargers 20 --- SEA -3.5 People love the Chargers, I don't. The Seahawks aren't a great road team, but traveling down the coast to San Diego shouldn't be a problem for them. Plus the Seahawks are off a long week and the Chargers played on Monday night. As long as Russell Wilson doesn't turn the ball over, which he rarely does, the Seahawks will get the road win.

Texans 20, Raiders 10 --- The Raiders offense looked pitiful against the Jets last Sunday. I doubt Derek Carr will fare much better against J.J. Watt today. The Texans held the Redskins to six points a week ago, I don't see any reason why they can't do the same thing today in Oakland to help the Texans match their win total from last year.

Packers 30, Jets 17 --- I see Geno Smith turning the ball over at least twice today. He has not been good on the road during his young career and the Packers need to bounce back after getting blown out in Seattle. The Jets shaky situation at cornerback should be exposed today by Aaron Rodgers unlike last week against the Raiders. Packers get the home win.

Broncos 35, Chiefs 21 --- This game could be very telling about the Chiefs chances this season. They were bad last week. If they get blown out by the Broncos today, they could be in serious trouble. Andy Reid was being Andy Reid last week by only giving Jamaal Charles 11 total touches vs. the Titans. That's just moronic. Give your best player the ball Andy. The Broncos will win this game, I'm just not sure if it'll be by a lot or by a little.

49ers 31, Bears 21 --- The Bears had trouble stopping the Bills running game, I doubt they will fare much against Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, and the running threat of Colin Kaepernick tonight. If Jay Cutler throws multiple interceptions the Bears have no chance of winning this one at the new Levi's Stadium.

Colts 32, Eagles 28 --- The Colts are a much better home team, so I'll give them the edge over the Eagles on Monday night. I'd expect this game to be high scoring considering the offenses going at it. The Colts should have a little bit of added motivation though as they will surely want to avoid starting 0-2.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 2 Thursday Night Pick

After a thrilling week one, in which nobody talked about on Monday thanks to the Ray Rice video, here are five takeaways from the NFL's opening week and also a pick for the Steelers vs. Ravens game tonight.

1. Fire Goodell

I'll let Keith Olbermann explain why Roger Goodell has to be fired. He can say it better than I can write about it. The entire Ray Rice situation has become a debacle for a multitude of reasons, Roger Goodell being one of the main ones. I've never been a Goodell fan pretty much because of how he turned the Steelers, in particularly James Harrison, into the villains when he was attempting to prevent concussions. The hubris Goodell has been exhibiting this week is mind boggling. He lied straight to America's face when he gave that interview to CBS. I'm just hoping the NFL owners figure out that another commish will still be able to make them billions upon billions of dollars and that Goodell just failed at doing his job.

2. Let's not overreact about the Patriots

First off, congratulations to the Dolphins for starting off the season with a victory, while also making Lord Brady seem very pedestrian thanks to Cameron Wake. With that being said, the Patriots are going to be just fine even if they lose to the Vikings this week. The offensive line will adjust to life without Logan Mankins and the defense will be very good. Their next six games are against the Vikings, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, and Jets. They will win at least five of those.

3. Nobody is beating the Seahawks in Seattle

After watching the Seahawks dismantle the Packers last Thursday night it's safe to say that the Seahawks are still very very good and they will also be nearly impossible to beat in Seattle. They went 9-1 total last season at home on their way to the Super Bowl and it wouldn't shock me at all if the Seahawks end up back in the Super Bowl if they earn home field advantage this season.

4. NFC East

I think it's about time we crown the Philadelphia Eagles the NFC East division champions. Based on week one, all the Eagles should need to do is avoid ten losses and they will be in the playoffs. Despite being down 17-0 to the Jaguars the Iggles finished the game on a 34-0 run to earn the only win in the division. The Redskins scored a measly six points against the Texans, the Cowboys were down 21-0 to the 49ers in a blink of an eye, and the Giants decided to not cover Calvin Johnson on Monday night. It could be an overreaction to week one for this division but it certainly appears like the Eagles are the only team that isn't currently dysfunctional.

5. NFC South

Unlike the NFC East, the South appears to be a division that could go down to the wire. The Falcons took a big step to prove that last season was a fluke by beating the Saints in week one. The Panthers also went into Tampa Bay and got a win without Cam Newton. The Saints are going to very good, the Falcons appear to be good again, the Panthers still have a great defense, the Bucs are a bit of a mystery. Either way three teams should be in the divisional hunt for the entire season.

Thursday Night Pick

Steelers 20, Ravens 17 --- I feel like I've been saying this for years, but whenever the Steelers play the Ravens it will be a tough, physical game that will likely be decided by one or two big plays, which will determine a winner by a field goal. I'll take the Steelers because clearly I'm biased and based on how Joe FLACCCCOOOOOOO looked in week one, I'm hoping the shaky Steelers defense will be able to force at least one turnover. Also, I'm not positive how well the Ravens will perform after a tough week dealing with the entire Ray Rice situation.

NFL Week 1 Picks

What a day. Week one has finally arrived. From about one o'clock to midnight I am ready to be in football heaven, assuming the Steelers don't lose to the Brownies. Just like last year, I'll pick straight up winners for every game along with three or four spreads that I like. Read it or don't read but get used to The Crime Dog being posted every Sunday and Thursday for the next five months.

Last year I finished with a 35-33 record for spreads. Not too good, but at least it was above 50%. So far this year I am 1-0 thanks to the Seahawks being awesome. Without further ado, onto the picks...

Steelers 20, Browns 14 --- CLE +7 Let's just get the Steelers game out of the way. I have a really bad feeling about this game. The Browns are a debacle on offense and the game is in Pittsburgh so the Steelers should come out on top, but I think the Browns defense will keep them in the game for a long time. The reason for my pessimistic attitude is due to the Steelers losing on opening day last year to the Tennessee Titans. The Steelers have to win this game if they have any plans of being good this year.

Falcons 27, Saints 24 --- Even though it's only week one, this is a must win for the Falcons. It would be a tone setting win if they could knock off the Saints, who many are predicting to win the NFC South and potentially the Super Bowl. Since it's at home, I'll take the Falcons but I would not be surprised at all if they get blown out by Drew BREEEEEESSSS and the Saints.

Vikings 21, Rams 17 --- I'm not sure why but I think the Vikings are going to have a very good year. That's probably due to my love for Cordarrelle Patterson. He's really good. Anyways, I know the Rams have a solid defense but with Shaun Hill running things on offense I don't have any confidence in them at this point. Also Jeff Fisher is not a great coach and I think Mike Zimmer will have something to prove in his first NFL game. Vikings outright.

Eagles 30, Jaguars 21 --- As you may or may not know, I'm pretty much a Jaguars fan. They are without Cecil Shorts III in this game and they aren't playing Blake Bortles because they like Chad Henne, so they will lose to the Eagles. However, the spread is Jags +10.5. I don't have a ton of confidence in it, so I won't make it an official pick, but the Jaguars might keep this one close before the Eagles finally prevail.

Jets 23, Raiders 17 --- This game is a lot like the Steelers game, meaning the home team should win but for some reason I have a feeling it will be close. Derek Carr starts for the Raiders against Rex Ryan's defense, who has a bunch of nobodies playing cornerback. However, the Jets defensive line is outstanding and if they can get a solid pass rush the lack of corners will be a non factor. Also, as long as Geno Smith doesn't turn the ball over multiple times the Jets should get their first win of the season.

Ravens 24, Bengals 20 --- BAL -1 I've gone back and forth on this game. I think the Bengals are the better team and have the superior talent. However, since it is in Baltimore and the Ravens, similar to the Falcons, need this win to prove they aren't the same team as last year. Plus Andy Dalton struggles against the Ravens, throwing six touchdowns and 11 interceptions in six career games against Baltimore.

Bears 40, Bills 27 --- The Bears offense has the potential to be very good. The Bills appear to be a mess on offense. Da Bears should win this game at home.

Texans 28, Redskins 21 --- This game could go either way. Both teams have something to prove, yet nobody seems to know how good either team is. I'll take the home team, partly due to the fact that the Texans defensive line has a chance to crush RG III.

Chiefs 20, Titans 17 --- Surprisingly the Chiefs are horrible against the spread at home. The line is 3 for the Chiefs. I think that's about where the final score will end out. People are down on the Chiefs but historically Andy Reid has been very good off of bye weeks/with more time to prepare. I think the Chiefs get the home win but it could be a close one.

Patriots 31, Dolphins 20 --- NE -4 The Patriots haven't lost a season opener since 2003. Even though the Pats have struggled at times in Miami, I don't see Lord Brady losing today. The Pats defense has the potential to be very good and I think they will give Ryan Tannehill a tough time today.

Panthers 20, Bucs 17 --- CAR +3 I'm down on the Panthers, personally I don't see them making it back to the playoffs. With that being said, I don't like the Buccaneers either and the Panthers defense should shut down Josh McCown to start off the season 1-0.

49ers 34, Cowboys 27 --- The under/over of 51 is very intriguing. The Cowboys defense is not good and the Niners are missing a few key members. I think Colin Kaepernick is going to have a huge game running and throwing. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant might keep the Cowboys in the game but the Niners will end out with the victory.

Broncos 35, Colts 31 --- Another game with the potential to be a shootout. The Broncos are the better team but Andrew Luck will keep the Colts in the game. The Broncos however have something to prove after the lackluster Super Bowl performance. They will get the home win to start the year.

Lions 30, Giants 24 --- It will be very interesting to see how Eli Manning does in a real game. The preseason was not good. He will need to play well because the Lions are going to score some points. I'll give the edge to the home team but if Eli figured out the offense and looks alright the Giants might be able to outscore the Lions.

Cardinals 27, Chargers 24 --- Everybody loves the Cardinals. I think they will win the opener at home on Monday night but I don't think it will be easy. I've said it a million times but Carson Palmer will throw a few picks, that will keep the Chargers in the game.

Enjoy the games people.

2014 NFL Predictions

The NFL is finally back. The next five months should be fantastic, unless the refs decide to throw penalty flags on every play. The start of the season also means it's time for my predictions that are sure to be wrong. Last year my predictions weren't pretty. My Super Bowl prediction went an outstanding 4-12. Thanks Atlanta Falcons. I also had the Eagles and Panthers finishing last in their division and they both won.

However, those predictions are in the past. It's time to focus on the 2014 season.

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 12-4* - Tom F. Brady. Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo are back on defense. They got some guy named Revis now. Blah blah blah. Patriots are going to win the AFC East by week 10. Actually they have already won it. They will probably get home field advantage also.

New York Jets 7-9 - I don't see the Jets making the playoffs like some other people. Geno Smith is not a franchise quarterback. I know he finished last year pretty well and now he has Eric Decker but he's just not that great. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Mike Vick start multiple games this season. The Jets defense will win them a handful of games but they will need to figure out something at cornerback because the Revis/Cromartie days are long gone. Avoiding ten losses should happen, but they also won't get to ten wins.

Miami Dolphins 6-10 - I really don't know what to make of the Dolphins. Maybe they won't be as bad as 6-10 considering last year they were going to make the playoffs if they didn't lose their final two games. It is definitely a make or break year for Ryan Tannehill though. They added Knowshon Moreno and Mike Wallace should have a better second season in Miami. They won't win the division but if they pick up a few key wins they could be on the fringe of the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills 5-11 - Let me say this, I'm still on the Bills bandwagon. They will eventually make it back to the playoffs. However, it will not be this year. I'll go as far as saying there is no shot they make it. EJ Manuel is not the guy to get it done. It may be too soon to call him a bust but he is heading down that path quickly. Maybe next year Buffalo.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals 10-6* - Despite the fact that I don't like Andy Dalton, the Bengals are still the most talented team in the division and they are the defending AFC North champs until somebody knocks them off. They have plenty on weapons to surround Dalton. On defense they get Geno Atkins back from injury. The Bungals will inevitably lose in their first playoff game and then keep Marvin Lewis for another year but that's just the Bungals being the Bungals.

Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7* - After two straight 8-8 seasons, the Steelers should be contending for the North crown. Their offense is solid with Big Ben leading the way. If their offensive stays healthy their run game should be very good unless Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount get arrested again. On defense they will need the secondary to step up and force some turnovers. They should not be worse than 8-8, their schedule is not hard. The Steelers will most likely be fighting for the final wild card spot come December, or at least I hope they will be in hunt.

Baltimore Ravens 8-8 - The Ravens could easily start the year 1-4. Week one at home against the Bengals will be very telling for them. If they win, they could be back in the playoffs. If they lose, the Bengals will have an early leg up on the division. Personally I just don't see Joe FLACCCOOOOOO bouncing back this year and the defense is still lacking leadership. They won't be worse than 8-8 but they don't have much of a chance to win their second Super Bowl in three years.

Cleveland Browns 4-12 - The Brownies do have a very good defense that will keep them in most games. The problem for them is that they might score about ten points a game. Four wins as a prediction might be low but they won't avoid ten losses this year no matter who plays quarterback. My guess is that after the Browns start 0-3, we will get to see Johnny Football as the starter instead of Brian Hoyer. While things are looking up for Cleveland now that LeBron is back, the football team will continue to look like the same old Brownies.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 10-6* - The Colts as a team aren't spectacular but they have a spectacular quarterback. Andrew Luck will lead the Colts to another division title. I'm not sure if the Colts will make a deep run into the playoffs but I'm sure Luck will continue to get better and better during his third season.

Houston Texans 9-7* - After an abysmal 2-14 season, the Texans are poised for a bounce back year despite having the Amish Rifle as their quarterback. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick will do what he does best and throw a ton of interceptions. Ryan "Meat" Mallet could eventually come the starter, which would be interesting. The Texans defense should be able to get after opposing QB's. I have them in the playoffs at 9-7 because their schedule isn't that difficult.

Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 - The Jaguars are quickly becoming my new Buffalo Bills. I'm all about the Jaguars in the future. First off Gus Bradley seems to have the potential to become a great coach in this league. Second, they have the second coming of Big Ben in Blake Bortles. He might not play this year, which is fine, let him learn under Chad Henne while the talent around the QB gets better and better. A six win year would be a step in the right direction after going 4-12 last season.

Tennessee Titans 5-11 - Bill Cowher likes the Titans. I'm not sure why. Their defense might be pretty good and it's true Jake Locker was pretty good last season before he got hurt. The problem is, is that Locker will most likely get hurt again this year. Their current backup is Charlie Whitehurst. That won't help the Titans. 5-11 might be a harsh prediction. However, I don't see them getting over seven wins.

AFC West 

Denver Broncos 11-5* - Similar to the Patriots, the Broncos are going to make the playoffs. Peyton Manning is still great. The Broncos loaded up on defense. Will they be affected by their Super Bowl performance? Possibly, but Peyton will be steady the ship for the regular season. They will get 11 or 12 wins easily.

Kansas City Chiefs 8-8 - Last year the Chiefs had two seasons. The first part was when they started 9-0. The second half didn't go as well, going 2-6 and blowing a huge lead to the Colts in the playoffs. I don't think this years Chiefs team will see either of those extremes again. They will probably be a middle of the road team, finishing around 8-8. They have a chance to make the playoffs again but I think they will come up a bit short.

San Diego Chargers 7-9 - After making the playoffs last year because Ryan Succop couldn't make a field goal, knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs, I don't see the Chargers earning a wild card spot for the second straight year. Their last five games are against tough competition. Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, 49ers, and Chiefs. They could lose all five of those games. So unless Phil and Chargers start 9-2 or 10-1, they probably won't finish above.500.

Oakland Raiders 4-12 - Derek Carr is in for a long rookie season. The Raiders added some veteran talent to the roster but unfortunately for them this isn't 2010, when players like Maurice Jones-Drew, LaMarr Woodley, and Justin Tuck were actually great. The Raiders will remain the bad RAYYYYDAAAS until they finally get back to the playoffs. That won't happen this year.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 10-6* - The Eagles are going to the NFC East by default thanks to the group of teams competing against them. Nick Foles still has something to prove after his incredible 2013 season. Chip Kelly's offense shouldn't have too many issues trying to find a replacement for Desean Jackson, since I'm pretty sure I could be a borderline pro bowler in that offense. Shady McCoy will have another big year and as long as the defense is alright, the Eagles will be in the playoffs.

New York Giants 7-9 - This may be an overreaction based on the preseason but the Giants offense is in big trouble. This is the first time Eli Manning is learning a new offense since his rookie year. The process is taking a little longer than expected and unfortunately for Giants there is no more time to wait. The G-Men won't be awful but they won't be great either.

Dallas Cowboys 6-10 - Their defense is dreadful. Tony Romo's back is still a concern. Jerry Jones still thinks he is a great GM. Dallas appears to be a mess and this seems to be the year that the Cowboys won't make it to their normal 8-8 record.

Washington Redskins 6-10 - I am of the opinion that Bob Griffin III won't be the starter all year long. Maybe Jay Gruden will figure out how to utilize RG III but if it's not due to poor play, he will end up getting injured because he doesn't know how to slide. Unfortunately for the Redskins, I just don't see them bouncing back into the playoffs this year. Too many things need to go right for that to happen.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 11-5* - Before I went through the schedule I was thinking the Packers might have a down year. After I finished I don't see them losing more than six games. Aaron Rodgers alone is worth close to ten wins. The Pack will be fine in the regular season, probably winning the North, but I don't expect them to get their second Super Bowl under Rodgers and McCarthy.

Chicago Bears 10-6* - The Bears defense has the potential to be terrible and the offense has the potential to be very good. Jay Cutler could have a great second season in Marc Trestman's offense. As long as Matt Forte stays healthy they should score a lot of points. If they can force turnovers and keep teams out of the end zone, DA Bears have a chance to be make the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings 7-9 - People forgot that the Vikings made the playoffs in 2012. 5-10-1 last year wasn't too great but the Vikings should bounce back this year. They have a ton over first round talent all of the roster. Matt Cassel has been playing well during the preseason and if he struggles they have Teddy Bridgewater. Adrian Peterson is still a beast and Cordarrelle Patterson could turn into one of the best receivers in the league. The might be a year away from reaching their full potential and playing outside this winter could affect them, but the Vikings won't be a pushover this season.

Detroit Lions 7-9 - The Lions are an interesting bunch. Jim Schwartz is gone and Jim Caldwell is in. The Lions should be a better behaved team but that might not be enough to get back to the playoffs. The offense will remain strong with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson but their defense will determine their season. Frankly I don't expect them to stop anybody so 7-9 will probably be about where they finish.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 12-4* - Everybody loves the Saints. A ton of people having them winning the Super Bowl. I don't necessarily see that happening but winning the south is very possible. They have Drew BREEEEEESSSSSS, so their offense and my fantasy team will be just fine. The issue for the Saints will always be their defense and once the playoffs roll around, I expect that to be their downfall.

Carolina Panthers 8-8 - I think the Panthers are going to be a lot like the Jets. Their defense is one of the best in league but there will be games where the offense just won't score enough points. Cam Newton can only do so much. He is already dinged up, which isn't a good thing for a mobile QB entering the season. Also last season everything seemed to go right for Riverboat Ron. This year they might not catch all those breaks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9 - The Bucs are another Florida team I'm not sure what to make of. I think Lovie Smith will help improve them from a 4-12 team. I don't love their quarterback, Josh McCown. He's a perfect backup and I'm not sure he's the guy. A healthy Doug Martin will definitely help the team and McCown. I think they will be better than last season, but I don't see the Bucs and their horrible new uniforms making the playoffs. GO BACK TO THE CREAMSICLES.

Atlanta Falcons 7-9 - After watching the entire season of Hard Knocks, I still have no idea what to make of the dirty birds. I don't think they will be 4-12 bad, but I also don't expect them to be one play away from the Super Bowl like they were in 2012. In between 7-9 and 9-7 is about where they might end up. Although I really shouldn't try to predict the Falcons. Last year I had them winning a Super Bowl and two years ago I had them in last place, so whatever I say they do the opposite.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks 11-5* - Recent history has told us that defending champs don't always meet expectations. The Seahawks are a different bunch though. They didn't lose that many players in the offseason and they are still a relatively young team. I'd be shocked if they didn't win the West. If they don't get home field in the playoffs, then maybe they won't repeat but they will be in the mix come January.

San Francisco 49ers 10-6* - No Aldon Smith for nine games. They lost Donte Whitner, NaVarro Bowman will miss most of the year, and Glenn Dorsey got injured. Their defense is not in great shape, at least to start the year. Everybody is down on the Niners. They have been to three straight NFC Championships, maybe this is the year they slip. I have a feeling Colin Kaepernick will keep them afloat early in the season and once they get Smith and Bowman back they might be a force in the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals 9-7 - Everybody loves the Cardinals after their 10-6 season last year. People are also predicting the demise of the 49ers and there is a potential hangover for the Super Champs. Personally, I just don't trust Carson Palmer to get it done. In an important game he will inevitably throw a few key interceptions. They can only feed Andre Ellington so much, and eventually Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd will be covered and Carson will force one. The Cards will be good but I don't think they will get into the playoffs.

St. Louis Rams 6-10 - Their defense will be very good but Shaun Hill leading the offense against the rest of the NFC West is a recipe for disaster. Also, can we all agree that Jeff Fisher is a mediocre head coach. He gets a lot of credit for being one of the best head coaches, but what has he done other than taking the Titans to the Super Bowl when he had Steve McNair and Eddie George? He probably won't be fired because of the Sam Bradford injury but he's turning into Mike Shanahan in my opinion.

NFL MVP: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints --- Other than Adrian Peterson's MVP, a quarterback has won this award every year since 2007. Manning, Rodgers, and TFB have all won. It's time for Brees to finally win one. The Saints offense is loaded with a healthy and happy Jimmy Graham. The addition of rookie Bradin Cooks could be huge.

Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis, CB, New England Patriots --- Two years removed from an ACL injury and with Richard Sherman proclaiming him the great thing since sliced bread, it's about time Revis Island returns. Unfortunately for Jets fans it will be with their biggest rival.

Coach of the Year: Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans --- Since I'm picking the Texans to get into the playoffs with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback and after a 2-14 season, it would hard to not give O'Brien the award.  

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders --- I'm aware that I said he's in for a long rookie season. That's probably true but six of the past ten rookie of the years on offense have been a quarterback. Carr is the only rookie QB starting week one. If he can get the Raiders to seven wins and his stats are decent he could win this award.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Calvin Pryor, S, New York Jets --- The kid is a thumper. The Jets secondary is going to need help and if Pryor can step in Rexy's defense and perform well, he has a chance to win this award. I also just wanted to get in the sentence about him being a thumper.

AFC Wild Card

Indianpolis Colts over Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals

NFC Wild Card

San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles over Chicago Bears

AFC Divisional Round

New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts

NFC Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints over San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks over Philadelphia Eagles

AFC Championship: New England Patriots over Denver Broncos

NFC Championship: Seattle Seahawks over New Orleans Saints

SUPER BOWL XLIX: Seattle Seahawks over New England Patriots

Not exactly the most creative Super Bowl matchup but it seems very possible. The Patriots have the potential to be very good on defense this year and with Lord Brady the offense will be good like usual. However, I believe that the Seahawks will repeat as Super Bowl champs. Maybe I'm still brainwashed by what I saw last February when they destroyed the Broncos but I don't see anybody beating them. I think they are still hungry to prove they aren't just a one time Super Bowl winner. The Seahawks still have a chip on their shoulder for whatever reason and I'll take them to win their second straight Super Bowl.

Opening Night Pick: Seahawks 31, Packers 20 --- SEA -6 --- Unless the Packers start with the ball and drive the field for a touchdown, I see this game potentially getting out of hand early. Similar to the Monday night game in Seattle last year when the Saints came to town. If the Seahawks start strong and get an early lead, the crowd will be insane and the Packers would be in danger of getting blown out.

Enjoy the season.


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