NFL Week 17 Picks

How is it already week 17? Time flies in the NFL.

I went 4-0 for spreads last week. So I am now above .500 this year. Need another good week to keep it that way.

Overall:  145-91  Spread: 33-30-3

Steelers 41, Browns 0 --- So that score prediction might be a little preposterous but the Steelers are going to win this game...at least they better. I'm a little worried that Josh Gordon goes off for about 300 yards but the Browns aren't good. Also people can say the Steelers suck all they want but they aren't a bad football team right now. They started 0-4, which was tough to watch, but they have gone 7-4 since then. At least they put up a fight to make the playoffs, unlike my Super Bowl pick the Atlanta Falcons.

Panthers 30, Falcons 9 --- As far as predictions go, my Falcons Super Bowl pick is as bad as it gets. They are going to finish the year at 4-12 because the Panthers are going to crush them at home today. How do you 13-3, the number one seed in the NFC to 4-12? How? I genuinely dislike the Falcons because of this year.

Ravens 24, Bengals 17 --- BAL +6.5  I know that the Bengals have no motivation to win this game. They already clinched the AFC North and the chances that they get a bye are slim. So they will rest players. Meaning the Ravens will win this game and most likely play Cincinnati again next week in the playoffs. It's just like the 2009 season when they let the Jets win week 17 and then the Jets crushed them the next week in the playoffs. By the way, if my scenario happens the Ravens will crush the Bengals next week.

Titans 24, Texans 17 --- The Texans have lost 13 straight games. If they win they put their chances for the number one pick up for grabs. So basically just lose Texans, you have nothing to gain with a victory.

Colts 24, Jaguars 17 --- JAX +10.5  I am 100% on the Jaguars bandwagon. The Bills better watch out because I love Gus Bradley. There is no chance the Colts blow them out today. What are they playing for? They are the four seed. You might as well rest some people and let the Jags get their fifth win.

Dolphins 20, Jets 9 --- The Jets don't win on the road. Two thing that I'm hoping for. Numbah one, I hope Rexy doesn't get fired. He got seven wins this year with a team that has four win talent. He at least deserves to finish out his contract. Two, I'm rooting for the Dolphins to make the playoffs. Just because I somewhat like them compared to all the other teams in the AFC. Plus if they went to New England and beat the Patriots I'd be so happy.

Vikings 27, Lions 20 --- No Adrian Peterson. No problem. The Lions are such a disappointment. Jim Schwartz should be coaching his last game today.

Giants 17, Redskins 14 --- I've picked the Redskins for the past three weeks, so now that I picked the Giants the Redskins are clearly going to win this one. Eli might throw five interceptions now that I think about it. Oh well, sticking with the Giants pick.

Packers 40, Bears 20 --- GB -3 I heard this stat last night. The Packers are 17-2 in week 17 since 1994. Aaron Rodgers is back. Jay Cutler hasn't been awesome. The Bears defense can't stop anybody. Give me the Packers.

Broncos 27, Raiders 14 --- The Raiders are bad but thanks to Shaun Suisham they have a win of the Steelers. That sentence infuriates me. I hope Shaun tears a hammy today.

Patriots 24, Bills 21 --- The Bills can get to the quarterback. They have set a new franchise record this year with 56 sacks. So if they can get to Lord Brady this game might be close. However, the Patriots are 7-0 at home and need to win to clinch the East so in the end they will get the victory.

Saints 31, Bucs 20 --- Saints in the SuperDome. Awesome. On the road. Ehhh. Today they are home against a team that is 1-6 on the road. Drew BREEEEEEESSSSSS is going to have a big big day.

Cardinals 21, 49ers 17 --- I feel bad for the Cardinals. Even if they win and finish 11-5 they probably won't make the playoffs. They have won seven of their last eight. Bruce Arians deserves coach of the year votes for the second straight year. I'll pick the Cards in this one because their defense is very good and Colin Kaepernick is not a great QB. He's very athletic and can make plays happen but if his first option isn't open he panics and runs.

Chargers 30, Chiefs 21 --- The Chargers already beat the Chiefs this year and I'm not too sure what the Chiefs are playing for today. I wouldn't shock me if they rest some players because they are pretty much locked in as the five seed in the AFC.

Seahawks 27, Rams 20 --- The Rams aren't a bad team. They just play in a ridiculous division. They have won four of six but aren't even going to finish above .500. The Seahawks need to win this game to lock up home field advantage and I think they will.

Cowboys 24, Eagles 21 --- DAL +6.5 I have no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys are going to win this game. No Romo. No problem basically. Everybody on ESPN will say the Eagles are going to destroy the Cowboys porous defense. Not gonna happen. Kyle Orton will manage the game well. DeMarco Murray will finally get 25 carries. The Cowboys will control the clock and take home the victory.


Enjoy the games people.

NFL Week 16 Picks

This weeks picks are going to be short and sweet. I just got back from France tonight and tomorrow I'm going to the Jets game.

Overall: 135-85   Spread: 29-30-3

Bills 24, Dolphins 21 --- First of all Ryan Tannehill has been very impressive the last two weeks in leading the Fins to wins late in the fourth quarter over the Steelers and Patriots. He gets overlooked often but he certainly appears to have the talent and mindset to become a very good NFL quarterback. The Dolphins have won four of five and all they need to do is win out to make the playoffs. Their schedule is favorable, in Buffalo and home against the Jets. With all of that being said I'm picking the Bills to win this game. I've picked the Dolphins to lose their last five games so maybe I'm just picking them to lose for superstition because I kind of want to see them make the playoffs. 

Packers 26, Steelers 21 --- This would be such a 2013 Steelers move to lose this game. Just played a great game against the Bengals. Now follow that up with a stinker against Matt Flynn and the Packers. 

Bengals 34, Vikings 21 --- The Bengals are 6-0 at home and in their past three games their smallest margin of victory is 14 points. They just lost last week to the Steelers and now the AFC North crown is up for grabs. The Bengals have to win this game to stay ahead of the Ravens. The Vikings have been play well, 2-1-1 in their past four, but they are 0-6-1 on the road this year. I don't see them pulling off another upset like they did last week against the Eagles. Bengals win. 

Chiefs 31, Colts 27 --- These two teams will most likely meet in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs in two weeks. So, I kind of wonder if each team will show each other everything they have. Give me the Chiefs at home.

Rams 31, Bucs 24 --- The Rams have been playing decent football lately. They just beat the Saints the home. They should be able to beat the Bucs at home. 

Jets 20, Browns 13 --- NYJ -1.5 I'll be at this game screaming REXY often and rooting for Josh Gordon to score 90 yard touchdowns. Browns stink. Jets are normally decent at home so I'll think they will win.

Redskins 34, Cowboys 31 --- WAS +3 My third straight week picking the Redskins to win. The Cowboys defense is just so bad. Blame Tony Romo all you want but the defense didn't help them out last week against the Packers. On the other hand Kirk Cousins had a two point conversation chance to win the game in Atlanta last week. Plus this will be London Fletcher's last home game in Washington so the Skins may have a reason to be play with a little heart.

Panthers 27, Saints 20 --- CAR -3 Saints at home. Great. Saints on the road. Not too good. I think the Panthers are the better team and since this game is in Carolina I think the Panthers defense will force a few key turnovers to get the win. 

Jaguars 24, Titans 21 --- I'm on the Jaguars bandwagon. They might be my new Buffalo Bills. I like the way Gus Bradley has this team playing. I've heard him talk a few times and I like his attitude. So, for that reason I'll pick the Jags at home. 

Broncos 41, Texans 21 --- Broncos have had a long week to rest since their loss to the Chargers. Peyton Manning should have a big day against the Texans, who have lost 12 straight. 

Lions 27, Giants 17 --- Eli has been horrible this year. Just terrible. The Lions have to win this game. They are the more talented team. Frankly, if the Lions can't win this one I think Jim Schwartz might be fired sooner rather than later. 

Seahawks 24, Cardinals 17 --- Seahawks don't lose at home. Plain and simple. 

Chargers 30, Raiders 21 --- The Chargers still have an outside chance at making the playoffs but they need to win out. The Raiders haven't been good lately. Phil Rivers should get the job done at home. 

Patriots 20, Ravens 17 --- NE +2 The Patriots rarely lose two games in a row. The Pats also know they can almost squash the Ravens playoffs chances with a win. The Ravens are 6-1 at home and have won four straight but last week they didn't score a touchdown and they are on a short week. I just have a feeling the Patriots figure out a way to win this one. 

Eagles 27, Bears 24 --- This one could go either way but Shady McCoy might run wild in this one. The Bears run defense is horrible. If the Eagles stick to the run they should be able to control the game and get a huge win.

49ers 28, Falcons 17 --- I don't see the Falcons pulling off the Monday night upset. 49ers should take care of business in this one. 

Enjoy the games people and Merry Christmas. 

NFL Week 15 Picks

First off, how about the Broncos losing to the Chargers on Thursday night. At this point, I'd be surprised if the Broncos made it to the Super Bowl. I know they are 11-3 and will probably end out with a bye week for the playoffs, I just have zero faith in Peyton Manning getting the job done in the cold. Thursday night games are tough to prepare for so that may have had something to do with the Broncos loss. But I just have a bad feeling a team like the Ravens last year will walk into Denver and score a ton of points and put pressure Peyton forcing a few turnovers. Maybe, I'm overreacting to one loss but I've lost a lot of confidence in the Broncos.

Anyways, not a great week of picks for me. 1-3 for spreads and only 10-6 overall. I picked some boneheaded upsets. Didn't work out too well. Hopefully I get hot again because I'm exactly at .500 for spreads this year. Onto the picks...

Overall: 127-77 Spread: 28-28-2

Redskins 24, Falcons 21 --- No idea why I'm picking the Redskins to win outright again after last weeks performance. I just think Kirk Cousins playing today might actually give the Redskins a spark. I could be dead wrong and the special teams could decide not to tackle anybody again but I'll give the Skins another chance. Plus the Falcons just lost to Matt Flynn in the Packers so they aren't exactly playing great football at the moment.

Bears 31, Browns 24 --- CHI -1 If Jay Cutler is 100% healthy I don't think the Bears offense will miss a beat. Alshon Jeffery has been awesome in the past few weeks, plus they still have Brandon Marshall. The Bears offense should be fine. As for the Brownies, last week was a crushing defeat. They had the Patriots beaten and they blew it. They have lost seven of eight so I'm not too sure they are going to be up for this game. Plus the Bears major flaw is run defense but the Browns are ranked 28th in rushing and the highest rushing total a Browns running back as had all year is Willis McGahee with 72 yards in week four.

Colts 27, Texans 20 --- The Colts have become the Jets in the past six weeks. Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose. They beat the Titans twice and the Texans once during that stretch. The Texans just fired Gary Kubiak and have lost 11 in a row. I'm not too sure if the Texans will play with a lot of emotion today but either I don't see their losing streak ending today in Indy. Colts get the win.

Patriots 21, Dolphins 20 --- With the Broncos losing to the Chargers the path to the number one seed in the AFC is clear for the Patriots. If they win out, it's theirs. It will be interesting to see how they adjust to life without Gronk (hopefully a lot of Shane Vereen for fantasy football purposes). The Pats beat the Dolphins 27-17 in week eight, but the Dolphins did have a 17-3 lead at halftime. The Dolphins need to win just as bad because they are in the race for the final wild card spot. It's just too hard to pick against the Patriots when they have a chance to clinch the AFC East.

Eagles 24, Vikings 17 --- The Vikings are going to be without both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart, so I'm not too sure who is going to be running the ball for the Vikings. That could also mean Matt Cassel will be forced to throw the ball a lot more than normal. That's a scary thought, although Cordarrelle Patterson looks like he could become a good receiver one day. Anyways, the Eagles have won five in a row and are 5-1 away from the Linc this year. Plus they know they need to win their last three games in order to win the NFC East, so I think they avoid slipping up in Minnesota today.

Seahawks 24, Giants 20 --- I think this game will be a close one. Mainly because the Seahawks are traveling all the way from Seattle to play a 1 PM Eastern time game a week after an emotional and physical game against the 49ers. The Giants are eliminated from the playoffs so they could just lay an egg like they did last week against the Chargers. But I think they will show up and Seahawks might get off to a rough start. At the end of the day though the Seahawks should get their 12th win.

49ers 28, Bucs 24 --- TB +5.5 This game is similar to how I feel about the Seahawks game. Possibly more because the Niners just had the biggest win of their season. They are also traveling all the way to Tampa for a 1 PM Eastern time game. Also teams who just played the Seahawks are 3-8-1 in the following week. The Niners are apart of that stat when they lost to the Colts in week three after playing in Seattle. The Bucs have won four of five and just forced EJ Manuel to throw four interceptions. If the Niners start slow the Bucs will hang around in this one.

Jaguars 23, Bills 19 --- JAX +2.5 --- I'm not too sure why the Jaguars are home underdogs in this one. They have won four of five, I'll admit not against the toughest competition but the Bills aren't exactly the '85 Bears. The Bills are 1-5 on the road this year and just lost in Tampa 27-6. Maurice Jones-Drew is doubtful but even without him the Jags run game might be fine with former UConn running back Jordan Todman. I think the Jags get their fifth win today.

Chiefs 21, Raiders 14 --- I think the Chiefs 45-10 win last week had more to do with the Redskins being terrible than the Chiefs being good. However, that type of victory and defensive performance could give the Chiefs some momentum. The Raiders have lost three straight and didn't look good against the Jets last week. These two teams met in week six and the Chiefs won 24-7, so I think they are the better team and will complete the season sweep today.

Panthers 30, Jets 6 --- CAR -10 The Jets have been outscored 105-15 in their past three road games. Their 15 points have all come via Nick Folk field goals. I don't like their chances offensively today against the arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Panthers are probably going to try to prove that last weeks game against the Saints was a fluke. It could get ugly in Carolina today...but then again everything I've said about the Jets this season has been followed up by the Jets doing the complete opposite.

Cowboys 31, Packers 21 --- The Cowboys are lucky they don't have to face Aaron Rodgers today because they way their defense looked on Monday night this game could have been ugly. They get to face Matt Flynn instead who isn't exactly lighting it up. Both teams need the win but I think the Cowboys will be able to force a turnover or two which should give them the victory.

Cardinals 24, Titans 14 --- The Titans have lost four of five. The Cardinals have won five of six. One team is fighting for their playoff lives, while the other might be fighting to save their head coaches job. I'll take the Cardinals in this one. They are the better team right now.

Saints 34, Rams 24 --- This could be a trap game for the Saints. Last week they had a huge win against the Panthers and they may overlook the Rams today because they face the Panthers again next week. With that being said Drew BREEEEESSSSSS is too good indoors. This year he has 25 TDs to only 3 interceptions when he plays inside. The Saints will score enough points to win.

Steelers 20, Bengals 17 --- Two things about this game. First off, this is a biased pick. I'll admit that. I just don't want to believe that the Steelers are going to get swept by the Bengals. Secondly, I'm actually getting a little nervous that the Bengals might have a chance to get to the Super Bowl. Right now they are clearly in the top three of the AFC. The just crushed the Colts, they have already beaten a Gronk-less Patriots team in week five, and we all know how Peyton Manning does in the playoffs. Andy Dalton is their big question mark at the moment but wasn't Joe Flacco the Ravens question mark last year? Hopefully the Bengals become the Bungals in the playoffs like normal and the Steelers win tonight.

P.S. I miss James Harrison.

Lions 27, Ravens 24 --- Huge game for both teams. The Ravens need to keep winning if they want to get the sixth seed and the Lions need to win to stay on top of the NFC North. The Ravens are only 1-5 on the road this year, while the Lions are 4-2 in Ford Field. Also, Matt Elam decided to call Calvin Johnson old this week. Calvin is 28. How is that old? I expect Mr. Johnson to have a huge night in a winning effort.

Enjoy the game people.

Week 15 Thursday Night Pick

(No idea how I got snow to fall in this picture)

Six takeaways from Week 14.

1. Gronk's ACL

Two things about the Gronk and his injury. Absolutely brutal to watch and see Gronk on the field screaming. While I'm not exactly a big fan of the Patriots, I'm a huge Gronk fan so my condolences to all Patriot fans.
First off, I think this ends the Patriots season. I said they were going to the Super Bowl after week three but that was because I knew the Gronk was coming back from previous injuries. He missed the first six weeks of the season and the Patriots offense was ranked 22nd until he returned. Right now they are 5th in points per game. In seven games this year he had four touchdowns but he has always been a major threat in the red zone. During his absence at the start of they year it was clear that they missed his presence. They did go 5-1 without him so I guess I shouldn't totally count out Lord Brady and the Patriots but their chances definitely took a huge hit.

Second, this is what Roger Goodell asked for when he made all the rules to protect players heads. T.J. Ward got fined twice last year for going high, so he is a perfect example of a defensive player that has changed the way he plays to adjust to the new rules. Defensive players have to go low to avoid penalties and fines. What I'm worried about now is that clearly players going so low is a dangerous play. So what is the NFL likely to do? Make another rule banning players for hitting below the knee, giving them a strike zone to hit. And if they do that, that's just not football anymore. There will be so many missed tackles because defensive players will almost have to play at half speed. The NFL did this to themselves and they are on a slippery slope of changing the game too much and not for the better.


2. Snow Football is awesome

The Lions Eagles game in the first half was ridiculous. You couldn't even see what was going on because it was snowing so hard. It looked liked there was eight inches of snow on the ground. Players could barely run around. It may have been ugly football to some but I loved it. That's classic football. Pittsburgh, DC, Green Bay, Baltimore all had snow. I can't remember a day when half the games had serious snow and it ended out being one of the most exciting NFL Sundays in a long time. 

But I kept hearing how the NFL is praying that this weather doesn't happen in New York for the Super Bowl. Why not? I understand it would be a pain for people traveling and all of the logistical issues but as for the actual game, I think it would be cool. Would it affect the outcome? Yes it would but this is football. The elements are part of the game. At the end of the day was the Lions Eagles game more exciting because of the snow? Yes it was. Had it just been a cold sunny day nobody would have cared about it. Chances are there won't be a ton of cold Super Bowls after this one because people are already complaining. So why not go out with a snow storm? My team isn't going to be in it anyways, so let it snow. 

3. The Jets are just screwing with me at this point

I had finally given up on the Jets. Last week I said Rexy should probably get fired at the end of the year and Geno is not the guy. I also picked the Raiders to go into JetLife and win. They had only scored six points in their previous two games. They had a Tight End picking the Patriots and Broncos to be in the AFC Championship. I was convinced the wheels had fallen off the bus...or the jet. But what do the Jets do? They win 37-27. Geno wasn't fantastic but he wasn't horrific. He threw for a TD and ran for one. They combined for 143 rushing yards. They had a blocked punt picked up for a TD. They looked like an actual football team for the first time in weeks.
They finish with Panthers, Browns, and Dolphins so I don't see them making the playoffs but they should get to 7-9 at the worst. Which coming into the year would have been seen as a successful season. So maybe Rexy will get another year. I have no idea what to think. I should probably stop writing about the Jets and then at least they won't make me look like a fool.

4. Vikings at Ravens finish

36 points in the final two minutes and five seconds. One of the craziest finishes in NFL history. I'm not sure what else to even say about it. I was rooting for the Vikings because at that time the Steelers were winning and still had playoff hopes. But every minute the score kept going back and forth. I honestly think if the Ravens last TD had happened with 30 seconds left, the Vikings probably would have scored again.
I'm also not too sure what to make of the Ravens at this point. They certainly don't win with style but they have won four of five and are the favorites to get the sixth spot in the AFC. Their final three games are against tough teams (Lions, Patriots, Bengals). So if they can win some of those games and get into the playoffs they might be a threat, especially if FLACCCOOOOO returns to his last year playoff form.

P.S. Apparently Adrian Peterson has never seen The Wire. Why would he expect Baltimore fans to be nice?

5. Even though the Niners and Saints won, I'd still take the teams they beat.

I'll start with the 49ers 19-17 win over the Seahawks. The Niners needed that win a lot more than the Seahawks did. However, after the game if I'm the Seahawks I'm not worried about the 49ers knowing that if they play again it will be in Seattle. It took everything the Niners had to beat the Seahawks and they only won by two and if Frank Gore hadn't busted a 50-yard run who knows if they even get the game winning field goal. I think the Seahawks are the better team even though they lost.
Now the Saints 31-13 win at home over the Panthers. The Saints are a different animal at home. 7-0 this year. Drew Brees is unstoppable in the Dome. Even though that is the most points the Panthers have allowed all season, they are still fine. They get a chance to redeem themselves in week 16 at home. I think the Panthers win that game. The issue with the Panthers is that even if they beat the Saints and win out, if the Saints go 2-1 they will win the NFC South (based on conference record), meaning the Panthers would have to go back to the SuperDome if the match-ups work out. That could be an problem but I think the Panthers could pull it off but they need to get touchdowns and not field goals like they did last Sunday night.

6. My worst pick of the year...Redskins +3 vs Chiefs

Yep. I picked the Redskins to beat the Chiefs on Sunday. The game ended with a score of 45-10. I picked the team that scored 10 points. Not my best work.
In all seriousness though how does Mike Shanahan still have his job? Most likely because Dan Synder doesn't want to pay him seven million dollars to not work. Either way the Redskins are a dumpster fire at this point. Now that Shanahan realizes he's not getting fired he's sitting RGIII for the rest of the season to protect his health. Is that a joke? Last year you let him play in the playoffs with a busted knee. I've been anti-Shanahan for a long long time, the fact that people give him credit for winning two Super Bowls is insane. He was given a great Broncos team and just found a way not to screw it up. Without John Elway he hasn't accomplished anything.
That's just the Shanahan side of the story. RGIII hasn't exactly had the "Will to Win" this year. He continues to throw his teammates under the bus when he fails to perform and who knows what the locker room even thinks of him at the moment. Somehow the Redskins have made the Jets look like a stable franchise.


Thursday Night Pick

Broncos 42, Chargers 28 --- I feel like in most Bronco games I give very little reason for why they will win the game. That is because they have Peyton Manning. Peyton does not lose games he should win in the regular season. He waits until the playoffs to play bad. The Chargers need this win to have any chance to make the playoffs but it's not going to happen. The Broncos offense is going to score too much.

NFL Week 14 Picks

First off lets talk a little soccer. Seriously. I am no soccer expert and I'm not going to pretend to be but I love the World Cup. Love it. My excitement took a little bit of a hit when I saw that the USA landed in Group G along with Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. Not exactly an easy road considering a country like France get to play Switzerland, Honduras, and Ecuador. But after a few minutes I thought even though it's tougher for the US to advance now, who cares? We are going to get to see three awesome games regardless and when did anybody ever say it was supposed to be easy for the United States to win the World Cup? Basically all I'm saying is that I'm pumped up and GO GO USA.

Anyways, can you believe that it's already Week 14? That means we are down to four weeks left and then it's already the playoffs. The NFL season goes by way too quickly. So enjoy the last few weeks of football. My picks are still going well. Last week I went 12-4 for outright games and 5-1-1 for the spreads, counting my Thanksgiving picks. Hopefully that trend continues.

Overall: 117-71  Spread: 27-25-2

Steelers 17, Dolphins 14 --- I'll say this about the Dolphins, they have impressed me ever since the Richie Incognito ordeal. I've picked them to lose the past three weeks but they have gone 2-1 and are right in the AFC playoff picture. With that being said, I'm not sure today is their day in Pittsburgh. The forecast calls for snow and strong winds, not exactly Miami weather. The Dolphins have also not beaten the Steelers since 1998 (0-5) and they haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1990. Plus the Steelers get to face former teammate Mike Wallace today, so I'm fairly certain Ike Taylor and the rest of the defense will do all they can to prevent Wallace from having a big day. I think it will be a close game but if Le'Veon Bell is healthy and can run effectively the Steelers should get the home win.

Colts 24, Bengals 21 --- Before you say this is a biased pick against the Bengals, just hold on a minute. Andy Dalton hasn't been good for the past four weeks (6 TDs, 9 INTs). The Colts have not been playing great football lately either but they have proven earlier in the season they can get up for big opponents (49ers, Seahawks, Broncos). The Bengals are 5-0 at home so I could be wrong about this one but I think the Colts have something to prove today.

Packers 24, Falcons 21 --- The Packers are 0-4-1without Aaron Rodgers and are off a beating by the Lions on Thanksgiving. The good news is that they return home today against the 3-9 Falcons. I'm not too sure that the Packers are the better team without Rodgers but they have to win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, Matt Flynn is much better at Lambeau Field. In his career he has seven touchdowns and only two interceptions (sure six TD's came in one game in 2011) but he played alright against the Vikings in week 12.

Patriots 34, Browns 17 --- NE -10 The Patriots have only won three games by 10 or more points so they haven't been blowing teams out. I think that changes a little bit today. The Browns have been really bad in the past seven weeks, other than Josh Gordon. Bill Belichick has always been great at taking away teams number one option and it's pretty clear that Gordon is the only option on the Browns at the moment. I just don't see the Brownies staying close in this one.

Raiders 20, Jets 6 --- OAK +3 I just can't pick the Jets anymore. I've been giving them the benefit of the doubt if they are at home, where they are 4-2 this year, but after last weeks 23-3 loss to the Dolphins I've given up hope on the offense. The Jets have scored six points in the past two weeks. Geno Smith has been brutal for the past five games. Granted, it won't be easy for the Raiders to play in the 1 PM Eastern time game but if they get into double digits they should be able to win.

Eagles 23, Lions 17 --- The Eagles have something special going with Nick Foles. They have won four in a row and are 5-0 for the year in games he starts and finishes. The Eagles defense is also very underrated. In their past eight games they have not allowed an opponent to score over 21 points, which is pretty good when your offense averages 25 PPG. I also just don't trust the Lions to win this game. They are 3-3 on the road this season but two of those wins are over Cleveland and Washington. The Eagles should be able to get their eighth win of the year.

Bucs 24, Bills 20 --- The Bills are not a good road team. They are 1-4 this year with three losses coming by 13 or more points. The Bucs have won their past two home games and with the exception of last weeks game against the Panthers have looked pretty good after their 0-8 start. I'll take the Bucs at home but it's a game against two teams that aren't going to the playoffs so it could go it either way.

Redskins 31, Chiefs 27 --- WAS +3 First off that line stinks. Why are the 3-9 Redskins, who have lost four straight games, only a three point underdog at home against the 9-3 Chiefs? I not only think the Redskins are going to cover the spread but I think they pull the upset today in DC. The Chiefs defense has collapsed recently allowing 34 points per game in their past three. Sure, the Redskins haven't scored over 17 in their past three games. Something just seems strange about this one, I'll take the Skins.

Ravens 27, Vikings 20 --- The Vikings have played two straight overtime games so it wouldn't shock me if they play a bit more fatigued compared to the Ravens who haven't played since Thanksgiving. The Ravens have won three of four and need to win this one because it's their easiest game remaining on the schedule (Lions, Patriots, Bengals). The Vikings are also 0-5-1 on the road so unless Adrian Peterson runs wild the Ravens should get their seventh win.

Broncos 35, Titans 21 --- This one seems pretty simple. Peyton Manning vs Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'll take the QB with the higher football IQ. Plus the Titans haven't beaten a team with a winning record this season.

Cardinals 28, Rams 21 --- The Cardinals have the fourth ranked run defense, allowing only 83 yards per game. That could be a problem for the Rams. Since Sam Bradford was lost for the season, they have relied heavily on Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham. In three of five games they have rushed for over 100 yards. If the Cardinals can put the kibosh on the run game and force Kellen Clemons to beat them they should be in good shape to get their eighth win of the year.

Chargers 24, Giants 21 --- The battle of the 2004 Rookie QB's. Imagine if Eli Manning (or Archie) didn't demand a trade before the draft and he was the Charger, while Phil Rivers was in New York or even worse if Big Ben hadn't ended out with the Steelers. I think it worked out pretty well for all teams (Chargers probably wished they had a ring but oh well). Anyways as for the game, the Chargers sort of blew their playoff chances last week when they lost to the Bengals at home and even though the Giants have won five of six they are still two back in the NFC East. The loser of this game will almost officially be out of the playoff hunt. I'll take the Chargers because they are at home and Phil Rivers has always been good in December but this one could go either way.

Seahawks 20, 49ers 13 ---  SEA +3 The past two times these teams have meet the Seahawks have outscored the Niners 71-16, both of those games were in Seattle. I think the Seahawks are in the Niners heads right now. 71-16 is domination. The Seahawks are the best team in the NFC at the moment and they want to prove once again that they are better than the 49ers. The Niners only have one win against a team with a winning record this year (Cardinals in week 6). I think the Seahawks are rolling right now and I don't think the Niners are the team that will stop them.

Saints 27, Panthers 17 --- I think what happened to the Saints last Monday night in Seattle is about to happened to the Panthers tonight in New Orleans. Meaning the SuperDome is going to be electric and the home team is going to get off to a quick start. The Saints are a different team in New Orleans. They are 6-0 at home this year. Drew BREEEEEESSSSSSSS at home this season has a QB rating of 122.2 with 19 TDs and only 3 INTs. The Saints are also going to want to redeem themselves from their dismal performance on Monday so I think they end the Panthers eight game win streak. I don't necessarily think the Saints are the better team in the long run but tonight I think being in New Orleans will be the difference maker.

Cowboys 27, Bears 24 --- This game appears to be a game that will be played by two teams going in opposite directions. DA BEARS have lost three of four while the Cowboys have won three of four. It is December however and we all know that this isn't exactly Tony Romo's best month. I'll still pick the Cowboys to win this one though because the Bears cannot stop the run. The issue with that is that the Cowboys refuse to give the ball to DeMarco Murray on a regular basis. If they do though he could have a big night and the Cowboys could win easily.


Enjoy the games people.

Week 14 Thursday Night Pick

Six takeaways from Week 13

1. Nobody is going to win in Seattle

After the demolition of the Saints on the Monday night, I think it's pretty clear that the Seahawks are the best team in the league at the moment. I also don't see anyway that the Seahawks lose in Seattle for the rest of the year (maybe ever again). They have yet to lose at home since Russell Wilson has been the starter. They have pretty much locked up home field advantage for the NFC Playoffs, so what I'm saying is I'd be very surprised if the Seahawks aren't playing in the Super Bowl.
Sure, it only takes one mistake to cost a team a game in the playoffs but they are so dominate at home when it's a big game. Also the NFC competition doesn't worry me. The Niners going to Seattle has been a debacle. I can't trust Cam Newton in his first playoff run. The Saints just got destroyed. Lions, not so much. Tony Romo has had his playoff mishaps in Seattle. Eagles and Packers would be my favorites and both of them might miss the playoffs.

P.S. I dislike the Seahawks defense so much. They are all punks. Every single one of them. Richard Sherman is great but the hit he made on Kenny Stills in the end zone for no reason was ridiculous. Earl Thomas made a nice hit on a Mark Ingram seven yard run and then he danced like he just won the game. The guy just ran for seven yards, calm down. I like Russell Wilson, I think he's a great leader but the defensive players are lose cannons and I can almost guarantee that they will commit a few personal fouls in one game. That will most likely be their downfall now that I think about it.

2. Russell Wilson vs Andrew Luck

Remember when people thought RG III and Colin Kaepernick were in the same class as Luck and Wilson? Seems like ages ago. Anyways, I've been a Luck guy since he came into the league. But, right now I think Russell Wilson is very very close to him. He was awesome against the Saints and he has been awesome all year. 22 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He's an MVP candidate at the moment. Wilson has the better team at the moment, especially a better O-Line, so I still think Luck will ultimately be the better QB but how the hell did he fall to the third round? Just because he is six feet tall? The NFL screwed up on that one.

3. Nick Foles for MVP

19 touchdowns. Zero interceptions. The Eagles are 5-0 in games when he starts and finishes. He's the Eagles starting quarterback for the next 1000 years according to Chip Kelly. He won't win the MVP, I know that but he deserves some credit for how the Eagles have turned things around. They have won four in a row and they have a clear path to the playoffs (win out and beat the Cowboys).

4. Bye-Bye Rexy or Geno

To be fair, coming into the year if you told me the Jets would be 5-7 after 12 games, I would have said that's very good. But right now after the past three weeks I think Rexy's time as the Jets coach or Geno's time as the QB has to come to an end. One of these two should go after this year.
I'd vote to give up on Geno, who has 1 touchdown and 11 interceptions since week six. He has been miserable. I understand he's a rookie and maybe we all expect too much from rookie QB's now because of people like Russell Wilson, but Geno doesn't appear to have the capabilities to become a great player.
But this is where I can see Rexy getting the blame because he and the GM's (Tannenbaum and John Idzik) haven't attempted to build an offense. All they do is draft defensive players, which has obviously made the defense one of the best in the league but you need an offense to win in this league now and Rexy is not an offensive guy. I think Rex is a very good head coach and a great defensive coordinator but without a steady QB it just isn't going to work for him as the man in New York.

5. Josh Gordon. Stud.

After week six I said Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon were top ten wide receivers and they both would be great for a long time if they stayed out of trouble. Well at least one of them is still on the field making me look good.
Josh Gordon has to be in the discussion as one of the best in the game at the moment. He became the only person in NFL history to record back-to-back 200 yard receiving games. Mind you he did this with Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden. I'd say I'm getting nervous as a Steelers fan foreseeing the idea of having to face him twice a year from now on but let's be serious they are still the Brownies. And if I know the Brownies like I think I do, he will end out somewhere else eventually.

P.S. I need another big week from you Josh. The Cleveland Brownies fantasy football playoff hopes rely on you.

6. Who's the worst team?

A few weeks ago this was an easy question. The Jaguars or the Buccaneers. Both of them were 0-8. But now both of those teams are 3-9. The Jaguars have won three of four and I am starting to believe that Gus Bradley might actually have a chance to make it work there eventually. The Bucs may have found their QB in Mike Glennon and maybe Greg Schiano survives but that leads me to not knowing who the worst team is. Record wise it's the 2-10 Texans but last week they almost upset the Patriots and they won the AFC South the past two years so I have to believe they have some talent on that roster. The Vikings are 3-8-1 but they are undefeated the past two weeks(1-0-1). The Falcons only have three wins but they are a bit like the Texans, I think they have talent something just went wrong this year. Maybe it's the Washington Redskins. They could be worst right now but then again they made the playoffs last year so are they horrible or is it just an injured QB and a bum head coach issue?
In conclusion, I'm not too sure who the worst team is at the moment but what I do know is that four of the six teams I just mentioned made the playoffs last year. Things change quickly in this league.


Thursday Night Pick (Not that anybody will watch this game)

Jaguars 21, Texans 20 --- The Jags just beat the Texans two weeks ago in Houston. They have won three of four and really seem to have some momentum. I just heard Gus Bradley on the Peter King Podcast, I really like him. He sounds like he has a plan to make Jacksonville (or wherever they move to) relevant again. Anyways, the Texans have lost ten straight and I think last week was sort of their Super Bowl so it wouldn't shock me at all if they don't play with a ton of emotion tonight. The only thing that worries me is that the Jaguars are 0-5 at home this year but I think they get it done.  

NFL Week 13 Picks

First off a little Steelers recap. I'm not too sure what to say. They are now 5-7 and pretty much done. Sure, if they win out they might get into the playoff but they are a mediocre football team at best. They will finish with seven or eight wins. It's crazy to think how close the difference between winning an losing is though. Had Shaun Suisham made two field goals in Oakland and had he actually attempted a field goal on Thursday the Steelers might be 7-5. Three field goal attempts costed them two games. I miss Jeff Reed.
Also the Le'Veon Bell no touchdown call at the end of the game because his helmet came off is a preposterous rule. I understand the need to protect a helmetless player. But why is it a dead ball at that spot? He is already falling to the ground. Just give him all of his forward progress. It's not like he was pulling a Jason Witten and running down the field with no helmet. That rule should definitely be tweaked a little bit.

P.S. Mike Tomlin is the man. He clearly got in Jacoby Jones' way and laughed right in Baltimore's face about it.

My picks have been very good lately. I'm finally above .500 for spreads after going 3-0 on Thanksgiving and 3-1 last week. So hopefully I can keep that going. Onto the picks...

Overall: 105-67   Spread: 25-24-2

Jaguars 21, Browns 17 --- JAX +7 The Jaguars are hot right now. Two wins in their past three games. Both on the road. I see no reason why they can't make it three out of four in Cleveland. The Brownies have lost five of six and looked miserable against the Steelers last week, other than Josh Gordon. That kid is an absolute freak. The Steelers had no clue how to stop him. He looked more un-coverable than Calvin Johnson did three weeks ago. 14 catches for 237 yards, sure a lot came late in the game when the Steelers had taken control but he's going to be a beast for a long time. With all that being said he doesn't have a great QB throwing to him just yet so I'll take the Jags on the road.

Colts 27, Titans 21 --- In their past four games, the Colts have been outscored in the first half 93-12. So, they haven't exactly gotten off to great starts. Even though they have been that bad in the first half they are still 2-2 in those games including a win over the Titans. Clearly, they aren't as good as we all thought they were after they beat the Broncos but I can't believe that they are this bad. The Reggie Wayne loss and the lack of run game has damaged their offense but I still have faith in Andrew Luck to right the ship. The Colts can pretty much clinch the AFC South today, so I think with a little help from Ryan Fitzpatrick they will end out getting the win.

Vikings 21, Bears 17 --- The Bears let up 258 rushing yards last week to the Rams so Adrian Peterson could be due for a huge day. If the Bears don't figure out a way to stop their opponents from running the ball down their throats they will be sitting around watching the playoffs in January. I think the Vikings might have a little momentum from their tie last week, so I'll take them at home over DA BEARS.

Jets 20, Dolphins 16 --- Since the Jets win in Atlanta, Geno Smith has thrown one touchdown and ten interceptions. Not exactly hall of fame stuff right there. The Jets have gotten smoked the past two weeks in Buffalo and Baltimore but they return home today. They are 4-1 in JetLife with some impressive wins so I think they can get it done today assuming their defense plays lights out. Geno will have to be careful with the ball but if he is the Jets should get the home win.

Cardinals 27, Eagles 24 --- ARZ +3 I think I'm officially on the Cardinals bandwagon, which only means one thing for Arizona, they are probably doomed today. They have four straight wins now after they destroyed the Colts at home last week. I know the Eagles have won five of seven but they have only won once at home this year. The Cardinals need to keep winning in order to stay alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I think Bruce Arians has what it takes to get a win over Chip Kelly today.

Panthers 31, Bucs 20 --- I think the Panthers got a pretty good scare last week from the Dolphins, so they won't overlook the Bucs today at home. The Bucs have won three in a row so I expect them to play hard but the Panthers are the superior team and Mike Glennon should have some trouble facing the talented Panthers defense.

Patriots 30, Texans 20 --- NE -7.5 Yeah I'll take the Patriots over a team that has lost nine straight games including a 13-6 loss to the Jaguars last week. Blow out city.

Bills 31, Falcons 27 --- I think the Falcons are the most disappointing team in the league this year by far. Sure they have had some bad injuries but they have given up. I mean the Steelers started 0-4 and they at least at a little heart to make themselves competitive. The Falcons have given up. They have lost five straight and eight of nine. I don't see them going into Buffalo and getting a win today. Bills circle the wagons for their second straight win.

49ers 26, Rams 17 --- The Rams have looked pretty impressive during their past two victories but I don't see them going into San Fran today and getting a win. The Niners beat the Rams 35-11 in week four so I think it's safe to call them the better  team. Plus the Niners seemed to have figured some things out last week against the Redskins, so they should get their eighth win of the year today.

Broncos 31, Chiefs 20 --- The Chiefs won't have Justin Houston today and Tamba Hali could be limited with an ankle injury. That certainly does not help their chances considering they couldn't touch Peyton Manning two weeks ago with those two. The Chiefs defense allowed 41 points last week at home to the Chargers, so I don't know what to make of them any more. The problem the Chiefs could have today is if they fall behind the Broncos again. The last thing the Chiefs want is to see Alex Smith in a shoot out against Peyton.

Chargers 24, Bengals 20 --- I still do not know what to make of the Chargers. Last week they went into Kansas City and got a huge win to snap their three game losing streak. Now they are right in the AFC playoff hunt with four remaining home games. Today they get the Bengals, who are off a bye but are only 2-4 on the road this year. I'll pick the Chargers in this one but I have zero confidence in it.

Giants 23, Redskins 17 --- Similar to the Falcons, I feel like the Redskins have given up this year. That could be mostly due to the fact that it seems like nobody in the locker room likes each other. I'm not sure anybody is a fan of Mike or Kyle Shanahan but apparently offensive lineman aren't helping RG III up off the field after he gets blasted. On the other hand the G-Men may be done after their loss to the Cowboys last weekend but I think they are a team that will continue to play hard for their coach.

Seahawks 24, Saints 17 --- SEA -5 I love Drew BREEEEEESSSS but I think he could be headed into a Peyton Manning playing in New England situation on Monday Night. Meaning it won't be as easy to fling the rock around outside in the elements as it is in a dome. The Seahawks haven't lost at home since 2011 and they know this game could basically clinch home field advantage for the playoffs so the 12th man is going to be fired up. I think the Saints are a good team but I also think the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC when they are in Seattle. I'll take the Seahawks and the points.


Enjoy the games people.

THANKSGIVING FOOTBALL

HUMBABE. A tradition unlike any other. Turkey and football and more turkey and pie and then more football. Thanksgiving is always one of my favorite days of the year but with the addition of Steelers football this year, I'm pumped. Onto the picks...

Lions 27, Packers 20 --- DET -6 This is my own Thanksgiving tradition, picking the Lions to win no matter who they play. They haven't won on Turkey Day since 2003. However the last team they beat was the Packers, so maybe they can finally end that streak. The Lions have lost two in a row though, including a loss to the Buccaneers at home last week. Luckily they don't have to play Aaron Rodgers today and the Packers have not won a game in four weeks. The Lions need to win if they want to win the NFC North, which is completely up for grabs. I think the Packers are the best team but only when Rodgers is playing QB. So the Lions need to create space in the division considering Rodgers is coming back soon. With all that being said, the Lions should finally get it done today. Turkey and stuffing for everybody in the Motor City!

Cowboys 30, Raiders 21 --- OAK +9.5 The Cowboys have been much better on Thanksgiving than the Lions, winning five of their past seven including a 24-7 win over the Raiders in 2009. This makes me wonder, why are the Raiders getting another chance to play on Thanksgiving? I get that they are a pretty historic franchise but they haven't been good for a decade and since when is Raiders Cowboys a rivalry? Anyways, The Cowboys had a big win last week over the Giants. People need to start giving Tony Romo some credit. He lead the Cowboys right down the field in the fourth quarter to beat the G-Men on the road. The Boys shouldn't have a huge problem taking care of the Raiders at home today but 9.5 is a big spread.

P.S. I love the Cowboys Thanksgiving uniforms. The white helmets with the blue star are awesome.


Steelers 17, Ravens 14 --- PIT +3 The Steelers haven't played on Thanksgiving since 1998 when they lost to the Lions in overtime. I still remember that game because Jerome Bettis called Tails for the coin flip and even though it landed Tails the referee, Phil Luckett, gave the Lions the ball. Here is a video about it. Bogus. 15 years later and it's still ridiculous.
The Steelers finally get another shot on Thanksgiving, this time in Baltimore. They beat the Ravens in week seven 19-16 and Big Ben is now 7-1 when he goes head-to-head against Joe Flacco. The loser of this game will most likely not make the playoffs. I know seven losses in the AFC doesn't eliminate you but the Ravens still have games against the Vikings, Lions, Patriots, and Bengals. While the Steelers play the Dolphins, Bengals, Packers, and Browns. I really doubt either team runs the table so a loss tonight would be devastating.
I'm taking the Steelers in this one because I truly believe Big Ben is the better quarterback and Joe Flacco just doesn't have what it takes to beat him. If Ray Rice runs wild, then you can throw that statement away but Ravens/Steelers games are always close and decided by one or two key plays. Whoever makes fewer mistakes will most likely get the win.

Happy Thanksgiving to everybody who reads. I really appreciate it.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Obviously the game of the week is Broncos at Patriots, better known as Manning vs. Brady XIV. Since when did we start adding roman numerals to these games like it's the friggin Super Bowl? Anyways, that picture makes Peyton look very old and Tommy looks like some sort of creepy evil fashion model.

Last weeks picks were horrible like I expected them to be after a great week 10. I went 1-2-1 for spreads and only 8-6 overall. I have a better feeling about my picks this week though. Onto the games...

Overall: 98-61  Spread: 19-23-2

Steelers 27, Browns 17 --- PIT +2 The Cleveland Browns became a franchise again in 1999, since then they have a 5-23 record against the Steelers. Five wins in 14 seasons. The Brownies have also lost four of five after their three game winning streak earlier this year. I'm not too sure why they are favored in this game other than the fact that it's in Cleveland. The Steelers have won four of their last six and need to keep winning in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. There would be no excuse if the Steelers blow this opportunity to get to 5-6.

Lions 24, Bucs 21 --- In the past three games Mike Glennon has thrown 7 TDs and zero interceptions. The Bucs have won two of those games and lost the other one in overtime to the Seahawks. The Bucs have been playing with a lot of heart recently and I think they will play well again today in Detroit but they are 0-4 on the road and the Lions are a better home team. It could be a close game but the Lions should get the win.

Packers 20, Vikings 17 --- The Packers are reminding me of the 2011 Indianapolis Colts without Peyton Manning. Ever since Aaron Rodgers got hurt the Pack are 0-3. In the past two games they have only scored 26 total points. They are however still in the NFC North divisional race and they get to play the 2-7 Vikings this week, who are 0-5 on the road this season. If the Packers want to keep their playoff hopes alive they need to get this win.

Chiefs 20, Chargers 14 --- The Chargers have lost three games in a row to the Redskins, Broncos, and Dolphins. They were 4-3 before those losses but they are starting to become the team we all expected them to be at the beginning of the year. Which is mediocre at best. The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the year but they are a much better team in Arrowhead so I think they hand the Chargers their fourth straight loss today.

Rams 27, Bears 24 --- I have no idea who wins this game. The Rams had a bye last week but in week 10 they went into Indianapolis and won 38-8. Before that they have lost three games in a row even though Zac Stacy was running for 300 yards. The Bears on the other hand have been alright since Jay Cutler got hurt. They lost to the Redskins and Lions but beat the Packers and Ravens. So, they aren't a bad team but they aren't great either. I'll take the Rams because they are the home team but this one could go either way.

Panthers 21, Dolphins 14 --- This might sound strange but I have less confidence picking the Panthers to win this game then I did when I picked them to beat the 49ers and Patriots. The Panthers are better than the Dolphins but I could easily see them having a let down after two of the bigger wins in franchise history. I'll still pick them to win but it wouldn't shock me if the Dolphins hang around in this one.

Ravens 31, Jets 14 --- BAL -3.5 The Jets have the second worst point differential in the league right now (-85 points). So if the Jets aren't winning they get blown out basically. I think they get crushed again this week. I know they are due for a win because they alternate wins and losses but Geno Smith isn't good on the road (4 TDs, 10 INTs). The Ravens are also a better team at home (3-1 this season), and need to win in order to put them into a better position for the final wild card spot.

Texans 27, Jaguars 14 --- The Texans are currently on an eight game losing streak but they have lost their last four games by a total of 12 points. So even though the Texans are bad they haven't quit. Case Keenum had been good until last week when he got benched against the Raiders. But he's starting today and I think they finally get their third win of the year over the Jaguars because the Jags are dreadful. Other than their win against the Titans, they have lost every game by 10 or more points.

Raiders 24, Titans 20 --- OAK -1.5 The Titans have lost five of six including a loss to the Jaguars so I'm not too sure why they are the favorite in this one. The Raiders are off a win over in the Texans in Matt McGloin's first NFL start. He threw for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks. Not a bad debut. The Raiders have been a better team this year at home, posting a 3-2 record. They also rank 6th in the league in rushing defense, so it's possible Chris Johnson will have little to no impact making Ryan Fitzpatrick throw the ball often, which can only mean interceptions. Raiders win.

Colts 26, Cardinals 23 --- The Cardinals three game win streak has been accomplished by beating teams with five total wins (Falcons, Texans, Jaguars). That's not exactly a Panthers resume. Today they get a real test with the Colts, who are 4-1 on the road and haven't played since last Thursday. The Colts haven't been playing great football lately, barely getting wins over the Texans and Titans and getting smoked by the Rams but they won two of those games. They normally win the close ones, so I think Andrew Luck will pull this one out in the end.

Giants 31, Cowboys 27 --- The G-Men have won four in a row, while the Cowboys have lost two of three and are off a beat down from the Saints. It is only late November so Tony Romo shouldn't be playing his worst football just yet but I think the Giants are the better team right now. The Cowboys are 1-4 on the road this year and Giants have won their last three in MetLife. It should be a close one but I can't help but image a late fourth quarter Tony Romo interception costing the Cowboys the game.

Patriots 34, Broncos 30 --- NE +2.5 The only thing I think of when I hear Peyton Manning in Foxboro, is Ty Law intercepting him about ten times during a snowy playoff game (It was the 2003 AFC Championship and Law only had three picks but ten sounded better). Peyton is 2-6 playing in New England against long-time rival Thomas F. Brady. The Patriots are 5-0 at home this season and the temperature at kickoff is going to be about 20 degrees. That's not exactly Peyton Manning weather. The Patriots rarely lose two games in a row and I'm sure TFB doesn't want to lose to Peyton in his building. Patriots win.

49ers 27, Redskins 24 --- In the past two weeks I have said both Colin Kaepernick and Bob Griffin III stink. They have this year. The Redskins season in pretty much finished but a Monday night home game might give them some motivation. The only problem is that the Ninerss have lost two in a row and cannot afford to fall to 6-5. I think the Niners defense will cause RG III trouble in the first half and the Niners will take an early lead and cruise to victory allowing the Redskins to backdoor cover.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 12 Thursday Night Pick

No video this week. I have a cold and my voice sounds turrible. I might make a video for the Sunday blog. But next Thursday is Thanksgiving so I promise a YouTube video for that.

Six takeaways from Week 11.

1. RGIII stinks

        This is starting to become a weekly thing for me. Each week I call a young quarterback awful. First it was Cam Newton, then he and the Panthers started winning. Then it was Colin Kaepernick, who didn't play too well in New Orleans. And now it's onto Robert Griffin III.
        I will say this about RG III, I'm not too sure if he's 100% and he probably should have taken more time to heal his knee. However, he has been terrible all season. Last year he only turned the ball over 8 times. He already has 15 turnovers this year. It also seems like he never does anything during the first half in games (5 TDs, 5 INTs). The only reason his stats aren't absolutely dreadful is due to the fact that he throws non-stop in the second half (52 more passing attempts than the 1st half) because they down by a few touchdowns. I'm also more nervous about RG III's future than I am about Kaepernick because he gets destroyed during games. I saw the play below when it happened. I thought he was dead. He could become Mike Vick. Extremely talented out of the pocket but he doesn't know how to take hits and he won't be able to stay healthy throughout his career.

       The Redskins are a debacle. I think Mike and Kyle Shanahan are running out of time in Washington because RG III is the future of the organization and right now the future looks very cloudy.

2. I learned nothing new about the Chiefs

        Coming into the game I knew the Chiefs had a really good defense and I still believe that. Only letting up 27 points to Peyton Manning and the Broncos isn't horrible. What's a little worrisome though is that the Chiefs haven't recorded a sack in the past two games. That's how they can beat teams with great QBs but if they can't create pressure they have no chance against teams like the Broncos or Patriots. Also before the game I didn't think they had the offense to keep up with the Broncos. That turned out to be true. When Montee Ball scored in the third quarter to make it 24-10 the game was over. Alex Smith is not built to play from behind.
        I'm not saying that the Chiefs 9-0 start was a fluke. I think they are a very good football team but there are three or four teams in the AFC that are clearly better than them at this point. The Chiefs might beat the Broncos in two weeks and possibly get the number one seed in the AFC but I would be shocked if they got to the Super Bowl.

3. The Panthers are a damn good team

      First off, let's mention the last play of the game. Was it a penalty? Yes. The Patriots did get kind of screwed but even if it was a penalty, holding or pass interference, there was no guarantee that the Patriots were automatically going to score on the final play and win the game. The truth of the matter is that the Carolina Panthers beat the Patriots just like the Jets did in week seven. Patriot fans can point to two blown calls costing them wins but their opponents deserved to win each game.
     Now onto the Panthers and the game. The Panthers defense is great. They have only allowed one first half touchdown all year. That's an incredible stat. Also anytime you can keep Lord Brady to 20 points or under you accomplished something. As for Cam Newton, he played great. The 14 yard run he had on third down, where he escaped about five Patriots was a phenomenal effort. The Panthers three touchdown drives were all over 80 yards long, including the game winning drive in the final five minutes. If Cam can keep playing like he has for the past six wins, the Panthers will be among the NFC elite.

4. Jim Schwartz is a hardo

       I got a couple of things to say about Jim. First off all I don't think the fake field goal costed the Lions the game. Sure it would have been logical to kick the field goal and go up by a touchdown but even though they failed, the Steelers started with the ball on their own three yard line. If the play had worked they would have gone up by 11 with 12 minutes left in the game, a lead they probably could have held onto. So I have no issue with the gamble on the road. 

      My issue with Jim Schwartz was during his press conference. He said, "Y'all say whatever you want about me. Ok. Don't say I'm scared. Cause we ain't." Ok... so your not scared. You're a tough guy. That's awesome. Calling a fake field goal has nothing to do with not being scared. Play smart. He's an intense guy but I'm starting to believe he's not the guy that will take the Lions to the next level. 

P.S. This is exactly how I feel about the Steelers right now.

They better not lose to the Browns like they did to the Raiders after their other two game win streak.

5. The Jets are something.

     I'm not sure what they are but they are something. I've been writing about the Jets all year it seems. I thought I finally had them figured out. They proved me wrong once again last Sunday. They got destroyed by Bills. Embarrassed frankly. Geno was awful, 8 for 23 with 3 interceptions. The defense forced no turnovers and had only one sack. They are now 5-5 and from week to week they are a completely different team. They seem to be the good Jets at home and bad Jets on the road. Next week in Baltimore I'd assume they might not play great but with the 2013 New York Jets you cannot assume anything.

6. Drew Brees has a rubber neck

      I've watched that GIF about 5 million times. I'm not sure how Drew BREEEEESSSSSS's head didn't come off. That's not the point of this though. How is that a penalty?

      Ahmad Brooks hit him right across the shoulder pads. Yes it looked violent but by the letter of the law I don't think that should have been called. The NFL is going way to far with protecting its players. The referees just throw flags if the play looks bad. This penalty costed the 49ers the game. I've been thinking and saying this for what seems to be a forever, but the NFL in five to ten years is going to be a completely different product. Roger Goodell and league have to be concerned about player safety and I understand that but they are taking it to far and the play on the field is starting to suffer because of it. 

Thursday Night Pick

Saints 34, Falcons 26 --- The Falcons have rolled over and died. They got wrecked by the Buccaneers last week. At one point they were losing 38-6 to a team with one win on the season. They have allowed over 30 points for the past three weeks. During their four game losing streak Matt Ryan has 9 interceptions. The only hope for the Falcons is if the Saints overlook this week because they play in Seattle on Monday night for week 13. Even if the Saints do that, they should still be able to leave Atlanta with their ninth win of the year.

NFL Week 11 Picks

After a horrible week nine of picking games I bounced back with an amazing week ten. I went 1--3 picking games and 4-0 for my spread picks. So that can only mean I'm due for a horrible
week.

Anyways, there are a ton of good and very important games this week, so onto the picks...

Overall: 90-55  Spread: 18-21-1

Steelers 24, Lions 23 --- PIT +2.5  The Lions are 6-3 but their past three games have been decided by only five total points. They are 2-1 in those games so they have the ability to win close games. I'm taking the Steelers to win this game because I think they will be able to control Calvin Johnson a little bit. Ike Taylor is actually a very good corner, who does play well against great receivers. Obviously Calvin might score a TD but I think the Steelers defense will have another strong performance. Also the Lions have only beaten the Steelers two times since 1966.

P.S. Steelers are wearing the worst throwbacks ever today. Brutal.

Jets 27, Bills 26 --- I once again have no idea which Jets team will show up today. They always win on odd numbered weeks, but they also always lose after a win. They won their last games against the Saints and they are off a bye week. They beat the Bills in week three 27-20, and the Bills have lost five of six. I'll take the Jets because they are the better team and Buffalo's offense looked horrible against the Steelers last week but it wouldn't shock me at all if the Jets lose.

Bears 28, Ravens 24 --- Even though the Bears don't have Jay Cutler, that shouldn't be a huge problem for their offense. Josh McCown has been great filling in. The Ravens are only 1-4 on the road and that win was against the Dolphins. I think the Bears are the more desperate team and they will get the win at home.

Bengals 20, Browns 10 --- The Bengals have lost two straight games in overtime and they lost to the Browns 17-6 in week four. I can't see them losing this game at home, where they are 4-0 this season. If they get this win they can basically knock the Browns out of the race for the division title.

Redskins 34, Eagles 30 --- WAS +4.5  I'm taking the Redskins in this one for a few reasons. First off the NFC East is such a mess that it would only make sense to let the Redskins right back in the division at 4-6. Another reason is that the Eagles are 0-4 at home this year and the Redskins should be well rested after playing a Thursday game in week ten. I think Nick Foles might finally drop back down to Earth for this game and finally thrown an interception.

Falcons 30, Bucs 27 --- My Super Bowl pick has to be one of the worst Super Bowl picks ever made. The Falcons are going to lose ten games this year. I'm not really sure why I'm taking them to beat the Bucs in Tampa today, considering they are 0-4 on the road this year. But I'm taking them because I can't see the Bucs winning two in a row.

Cardinals 27, Jaguars 17 --- The Cardinals are a sneaky 5-4 team in the NFC. If they win today and the Niners lose in New Orleans they will have the same record as San Francisco. I wouldn't have believed that at the beginning of the year. But the Cardinals have been beating the bad teams on their schedule so far. I think they get their third straight win in Jacksonville today.

Texans 30, Raiders 20 --- No Terrelle Pryor for the Raiders today, so former Penn Stater, Matt McGloin makes his first NFL start. Apparently the Raiders really like him but I'm not too sure how well he will do today on the road. I think Case Keenum and Texans finally break their seven game losing streak and get their third win of the year at home today.

Chargers 24, Dolphins 17 --- The Dolphins have lost five of six and I think their playoff hopes are fading. The Martin vs Incognito issue seems to be impacting the team, considering they couldn't beat Tampa Bay on Monday night. The Chargers are 4-5 also but they seem to be in every game they play. I trust Phil Rivers more than I do Ryan Tannehill at this point, so I'll take the Chargers.

49ers 30, Saints 28 --- SF +3  The Saints have been incredible all season at home. They are 5-0 this year and they just crushed the Cowboys 49-17. But they Cowboys are arguably they best team they've played at home. Their other four home wins are against the Falcons, Cardinals, Dolphins, and Bills. So today they face their toughest test, the 49ers, who are off a dismal offensive performance and a 10-9 loss to the Panthers. I'm picking the Niners in this one because I think the Saints might have a bit of a let down after recording 40 first downs last week and the Niners will not want to fall to 6-4.

Giants 27, Packers 20 --- I just don't see Scott Tolzien beating the now sort of good Giants in New Jersey. The G-Men have won three in a row and need to keep winning if they want to get into the playoffs, while the Packers seem to be sinking without Aaron Rodgers. Giants win.

Seahawks 28, Vikings 20 --- MIN +12.5 Seattle is 4-0 at home and 12-0 all-time under Russell Wilson. The Vikings are 0-4 on the road this season. Pretty simple. The Seahawks will win this game but similar to the Bucs game I think it might be somewhat close. If the Vikings can establish their run game they might be in the game.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 17 --- The fewest amount of points the Broncos have scored all year is 28, that happened last week against the Chargers. The most points the Chiefs have allowed is 17 to the Browns and Titans. Somethings gotta give. The Broncos are by far the best team the Chiefs will play so far this season. I do like the Chiefs defense a lot and even though Peyton Manning might be a little shaky on his ankle I can't see the Chiefs scoring enough points to beat the Broncos. Unless they can get a pick six, the Broncos should get the win at home.

Panthers 24, Patriots 23 --- Similar to the Chiefs and Broncos game somethings gotta give in this one. The last time we saw the Patriots they were scoring 55 god damn points against the Steelers. As for the Panthers, during their five game winning streak no team has reach 16 points. I'm going with the Panthers in this one because I think they can get to Tom Terrific. They sacked Kaepernick six times last week, so if they can do that again it could be difficult for TFB to get going. Also, as long as Cam doesn't turn the ball over he can rely on his defense at this point to carry them to a victory.

Enjoy the games people.

Week 11 Thursday Night Pick

Please watch the video above. My second attempt at a YouTube video. Tom Emanski wants you to watch it. Back to back to back times. 

Six takeaways from Week 10

1. Colin Kaepernick stinks

I wrote the exact same thing about Cam Newton after week 5, so if Kaepernick gets hot all of a sudden I will take credit for it. But right now the 49ers are last in the league in passing and Sunday against the Panthers they got held to 46 total passing yards. I understand the Panthers have a top three defense at this point but Kaepernick's entire season hasn't been good at all other than his week one performance against the Packers. In that game he threw for 412 yards with 3 TDS. Since then he hasn't thrown for over 252 yards and he's thrown 6 TDS and 6 interceptions. I know the Niners are built to run the ball more than other teams but in the past eight weeks Kaepernick has been nothing special. Frankly, if Alex Smith was the Niners QB on Sunday I think they would have found a way to win that game.

2. Are the Colts good or not?

Yes they are good but they weren't on Sunday. The Colts also are not as great as I thought they were after they beat the Broncos in week seven. A few weeks ago saying the Colts were the favorites in the AFC, wouldn't have been an ridiculous statement, considering they have wins over the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. But now after needing an amazing comeback against the Texans and getting smoked by the Rams at home, it certainly doesn't seem like they are in the top three of the AFC any longer.  The loss of Reggie Wayne seems to be a huge loss at this point. The Colts can basically clinch the AFC South tonight if they beat the Titans, so they should be playing in January again. I'm just no longer sure they make a deep run in the AFC playoffs.

P.S. Tavon Austin. Pretty, pretty, pretty good...and fast.

3. How are the Cardinals 5-4?

To be honest, I have no idea. They are ranked 22nd in offensive scoring. Carson Palmer has 15 interceptions with only 12 TDs. They have a -1 turnover margin. Their defense is pretty good ranking 12th, allowing 22 PPG. The Cardinals wins aren't tremendously impressive but their resume isn't the worst. They beat the Lions, Panthers (before the Panthers got hot, but still), Falcons, Texans, and Bucs. They are 4-1 at home and during their past two wins Palmer has only thrown one interception a game, which is an incredible feat for Carson. They play the Jaguars this week so they could be 6-4, which would give them more wins than last season (5). I think Bruce Arians deserves a lot of credit. He is 14-7 as an NFL Head Coach. Not too bad.

4. The 1976 Buccaneers and the 2008 Lions can pop champagne.

I'm not too sure if those teams celebrate like Mercury Morris and the 1972 Dolphins do, but if so they can drink now because they are officially safe from another team having the imperfect season. Both the Jaguars and Buccaneers got off the schnide this week. They have now made the chase for the number one pick in the draft much more complicated. Atlanta, Minnesota, and Houston are now just one game out. Jacksonville is worst team in the league but they appear to be playing somewhat hard under Gus Bradley.

P.S. Is Jadeveon Clowney still the automatic number one pick? I don't think so. The league is all about quarterbacks.

5. NFC East 2013 = NFC West 2010

I also wrote this exact same thing after week four. Does anybody even want to win this division? I guess you can argue the Eagles and Giants do at this point. The Cowboys are lucky they came back to beat Minnesota two weeks ago or else they would be 4-6 right now. The Redskins are pretty awful but they were 3-6 last year and still won the division so they've proven before that they aren't done. The next two weeks could help decide things in the East or it could create absolute chaos. The Cowboys play in New York in week 12, while the Redskins go to Philly on Sunday, where the Eagles are 0-4 this year. If the Redskins and Giants win, which is possible, every team will be under .500 and everybody could be within a half game of each other. I said in week four, that eight games could win this division. Right now a team might only need seven wins to clinch it.

6. AFC Wild Card Race

Five teams in the AFC are pretty much a lock to make the playoffs (Bengals are iffy right now but I think they will win the North) The bottom half of the AFC is pretty horrible. Here are the standings from 6 to 13.

6- New York Jets             5-4
7- Miami Dolphins           4-5
8- Tennessee Titans          4-5
9- Cleveland Browns        4-5
10- Baltimore Ravens       4-5
11- San Diego Chargers   4-5
12- Oakland Raiders         3-6
13- Pittsburgh Steelers      3-6 (only two games out, watch out Jets)

Eight teams fighting for one playoff spot (sure Oakland and Pittsburgh are looooooonnnnnng shots but crazier things have happened). I'm not too sure who gets in. I guess the favorites would have to be the Jets and Ravens. I'm also not too sure how many wins will get the job done. Nine maybe? Should be an interesting seven weeks.

Thursday Night Pick

Colts 21, Titans 17 --- The Titans have the Amish Rifle aka Ryan Fitzpatrick playing QB for the rest of the season now. I like Fitzpatrick but he's a bit of a turnover machine. Shockingly, he threw the ball 33 times against the Jaguars and didn't throw a pick. That can only mean he's due for few against the Colts. I just can't see the Colts laying another egg like they did against the Rams. They beat the Titans twice last year in close games, so I do think it will be tight but I think Andrew Luck will pull it off in the fourth quarter.