Conference Championships

For the second straight year I have to suffer through a Ravens vs Patriots AFC Championship game. The only two teams in the league that I never want to be in the Super Bowl (other than the Browns, but let's be serious they are never getting there) are going to play each other for the right to play in the Super Bowl. This is terrible. 

On one hand you have the Patriots who have broken my heart two times in the AFC Championship and have just been an annoyingly great team for the past decade. Seriously they can't have a season where they go 8-8 and miss the playoffs? No, they are always in the friggin Super Bowl. Plus I really really don't want to see TFB and Belichick get another shot at their 4th Super Bowl to tie Terry Bradshaw and Chuck Noll. 

But then on the other hand you have the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers rival. The team that thinks they own the AFC North even though they haven't been to a Super Bowl since 2001 and have Joe FLACCCOOOOO as their QB. A man who has claimed himself to be an ELITE QB even though this year he got beat by Charlie Batch in his home stadium. The one positive for the Ravens in my book is they have Ray Lewis, who is about to retire and it would be a pretty cool ending to see him go out like Jerome Bettis did. However that would mean Joe Flacco would win a Super Bowl. So I can't have that. 

So basically lets go NFC. 

Falcons 27, 49ers 24 --- ATL +4 The Falcons finally got their first playoff win with Matt Ryan as the QB last week against the Seahawks. They looked great until the fourth quarter when they blew their 20 point lead but they ended out on top which could give them a lot of momentum for this game. The Falcons have never been in this position, meaning an NFC Championship game at home, so they should be ready to play. They have also not lost to the 49ers since 2001 (sure that's only 4-0 and the Niners really haven't been great in the past 10 years but still). The Niners looked very impressive last week when they crushed the Packers as Colin Kaepernick ran wild. He is really really fast and it will be tough for the Falcons to stop him and the Niners offense. However they did seem to do a pretty good last week against the Seahawks with Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch (until the 4th quarter). If they can get off to another quick start and get a lead they might be able to stay ahead all game and win this one. They are 8-1 at home this year and the Niners are only 2-2 indoors if that means anything. Anyway, I'm going with the Falcons. I'm not to confident in it but I'll take them.

Patriots 30, Ravens 24 --- BAL +9.5 First of all, how are the Patriots a 9.5 point favorite. The Ravens have already beaten them this year and they just went to Denver and beat the number 1 seed in the AFC and last year they lost this exact game by a field goal, but probably should have won if Lee Evans could catch or at least been in overtime if Billy Cundiff could kick. How about that run-on sentence. I do think it is going to be very tough for the Ravens to get over the hump of knocking off the mighty Patriots though. The Pats are 5-1 in AFC Championships under Billy B and are 4-0 at home so this won't be an easy task. Another stat I find pretty fascinating is that since Super Bowl XXXVIII only three teams have won the AFC. Patriots 5 times, Steelers 3 times, and Colts 2 times. In 10 years there have only been three teams from the AFC, that's pretty wild. Plus Tommy F Brady is the greatest thing since sliced bread, they can run the ball now, their defense is pretty solid, Big Vince Wilfork eats people like Ray Rice for breakfast. The Patriots might crush the Ravens in this one, they really might. 

The reason I'll take the Ravens to cover and stay very close is because of Ray Lewis. I know one player isn't going to win this game for the Ravens but he is the heart and soul of this team and everyone on this team wants to get Ray to a Super Bowl in his last season. Plus it's not like the Ravens haven't been in this situation before. This will be their third AFC Championship under John Harbaugh. If FLACCCOOOO doesn't make any mistakes they have a shot to win this one. I'm actually rooting for them because I really think if the Patriots get to the Super Bowl they win it. 

Best case scenario though for the Patriots Ravens game is Bane shows up and blows up the field on the opening kickoff and then the NFC team is crowned the Super Bowl Champions.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Day 2

Well I went 1-1 yesterday. I should have went with my gut and picked the Ravens outright. I had a feeling they were going to stay in the game. Plus for as great as Peyton Manning is, he really isn't amazing in the playoffs. It's a good thing for him that he won a Super Bowl because he would be the ultimate Dan Marino. Now the Ravens get to play in the AFC Championship for the second straight year. I think they might have something special going. It would be interesting to see an AFC Championship rematch from last year. A game the Ravens should have at least taken to overtime if it wasn't for Billy Cundiff.
Also, Colin Kaepernick was very impressive last night. The Packers defense isn't incredible but he looked better than Aaron Rodgers from what I saw in the highlights. He's quick and would be a tough matchup for any team. I think the Niners might be the team to beat not only in the NFC but possibly the entire league.
Onto the picks for todays game.

Falcons 31, Seahawks 24 --- ATL -2.5 I'm refusing to jump on the Seahawks bandwagon. I think if RG III was healthy for the entire game last week the Seahawks would be playing golf today. The Falcons however have not won a playoff game yet with Matty Ryan. He is 0-3. However he is 33-6 during his career at home and they went 7-1 at home this season. The key for the Falcons is to stop Marshawn Lynch, which is not an easy task. That dude runs hard. The Falcons could have a similar story to the Ravens because Tony Gonzalez might retire after this season so this could be his last shot at a ring. I think Matty Ice comes through today and gets his first playoff win.

Patriots 35, Texans 27 --- HOU +9.5 I think we are looking at an AFC Championship rematch. I'd be very surprised if the Texans pull off the upset today. However I doubt they get steamrolled again like they did on Monday Night Football in week 14. That game was ugly from the start. The Pats won that game 42-14 but I think that could be a positive for the Texans. I doubt any "experts" will pick the Texans to win this game and I'm sure the Texans are aware of this. They will definitely have the revenge factor on their side. But it won't be easy to stop Thomas F. Brady in Gillette after a bye week and with the GRONK now. If the Texans can run the ball and win the time of possession they might have a chance. At the end of the day though I think Matt Schaub will turn the ball over once or twice to really hurt their chances playing in their first AFC Championship.

P.S. Two straight years of suffering through an AFC Championship with my two most hated teams playing is rough. The thing about the Ravens, is I actually don't mind them. They play great defense. I love the little midget Ray Rice unless he plays the Steelers. Ray Lewis is the best linebacker I've ever seen. It's Joe Flaccccoooo who I have a major problem with. I can't stand that dude. But then I don't want to see the Patriots because I really hate everything about them (Other than the GRONK and Big Vince Wilfork). So Texans do me a huge favor and make it to the Super Bowl.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Day 1

Last weekend I didn't do too well picking games. I was only 1-3 for spreads. Maybe being over the pond is making it a little bit harder to predict the games. But this is no time for excuses. It's playoff time and this is normally when I'm at my best, so I guarantee I'll do a lot better this weekend. On to the games for Saturday.

Broncos 28, Ravens 20 --- BAL +9 That's a huge spread for what could be Ray Lewis' final game. The Broncos have won 11 in a row and they are 7-1 at home but it's possible the week off could make them start a little slow. This game reminds me a lot of the 2005 Divisional Playoff game between the Colts and the Steelers. The Steelers had a certain player who was in his last year going up against the number 1 seed in the AFC. Peyton Manning was the QB back then and he is today. Plus the Ravens lost to the Broncos 34-17 in week 15 (the Steelers lost to the Colts in the regular season as well). I think the Broncos will get the job done today because Joe Flaccccoooooo is nothing special on the road (only 7 TD's and 5 INT's) and will most likely make a mistake. I do think it will be a lot closer than that spread though because the Ravens are going to want to do it for Ray, get revenge, get back to New England where their season ended last year. (After writing all this I might have just convinced myself that the Ravens pull this one out.

Packers 24, 49ers 21 --- GB +3 The Packers have a huge advantage at the quarterback position and this is why I'll take them to win today (Plus, they were my preseason Super Bowl pick so I might as well stick with them). But in all honesty Aaron Rodgers is an experienced playoff QB, while Colin Kaepernick is making his playoff start. The Niners also only finished the year 3-2, so they aren't exactly rolling with Alex Smith on the bench. Another reason I like the Packers is the revenge factor. The Pack lost the first game of the season in San Francisco and they will want to make sure that doesn't happen again. I also feel like everybody has forgotten that they won the Super Bowl two years ago.

Hopefully I'm right today. I'm really thinking I want the Ravens to win now. I watched a bunch of Ray Lewis speeches this week and he got me sorts of fired up. I swear he could convince me to hit my grandma if he talked to me. 

Wild Card Round Day 2

No surprises in Day 1. I was able to see the highlights on YouTube, no thanks to ESPN. I don't understand why I can't see certain videos from ESPN just because I'm in France. What's the difference? 

Anyways, The Bungals are the Bungals and didn't do anything on offense. Negative six passing yards in the first half. Ouch. Also, I keep getting to say they haven't won a playoff game in my lifetime. The Texans let them hang around though so it should be interesting to see how they do in New England next week. It really wouldn't shock me if they played well just because everyone is going to bring up the Monday night game from week 14 and predict the Patriots to win big again.

The Packers took care of business against the Vikings. They shut down Adrian Peterson for the first time in three meetings and Joe Webb didn't look too good. Packers at 49ers should be a good one next week. 

P.S. Who is Doug Marrone? Bills what are you doing? Chan Gailey was a bad hire, I don't even know who this guy is. Syracuse football is no powerhouse. I want to stay on the bandwagon Bills, but this move isn't helping.

Colts 31, Ravens 28 --- IND +7 --- The Ravens have limped into the playoffs losing four of their last five games. I never really believed they were a great football team when they were 9-2 so it didn't shock me they finished the year at 10-6. This is a huge game for Joe Flaccoooooo. He was very good in the playoffs last season and he gets to play a pretty weak defense today. If the Ravens are smart though they will let Ray Rice get a ton of touches, since the Colts are ranked 29th against the run. They aren't to smart though. The Colts finished the year 9-2, for one of the best turnaround seasons in NFL history. Chuck Pagano is back on the sidelines and they seem to have something special going. Also he coached the Ravens defense last season and Bruce Arians was the longtime offensive coordinator for the Steelers, so he knows the Ravens very well. As long as Andrew Luck doesn't turn the ball over more than twice the Colts are going to be in this game and as they proven all season, they can win the close ones. 

Redskins 20, Seahawks 14 --- WAS +3 This game features the two of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Seahawks have won five straight and the Redskins have won seven in a row. Both teams have outstanding rookie quarterbacks. The reason why I am going to pick the Redskins is due to the fact the Seahawks are not a great road team. They are only 3-5 on the road this year and those three wins came against the Panthers, Bears, and Bills (in Toronto). Russell Wilson is also not spectacular on the road. He turns the ball over at a much higher rate away from home, throwing 8 of his 10 interceptions. RG III has only thrown 5 picks all season, so this game could very well come down to the turnover battle. Also this is the first playoff game in Washington, D.C since 1999 so that crowd should be pumped up. 

Let's go underdogs. Aka- Joe Flacccoooooo screw up and end Ray Lewis' career.

Wild Card Round Day 1

I am 8-0 for the past two seasons on Wild Card weekend so the pressure is on to keep it going. In 2011 I had a feeling the 7-9 Seahawks would defeat the Saints and last year I the Denver Tebow's over my Steelers (still not over that game) 80 friggin yards on the first play of overtime. Sorry, I know the Steelers are done. I know there will be an upset this round but I'm not as confident as I was in the past. It should be an interesting weekend.

Texans 24, Bungals 21 --- CIN +4  The Bengals have been playing much better than the Texans. Cincy finished the year 7-1 and the Texans have lost three of four and cost themselves home field advantage. I think the Bengals could pull off the upset but the reason why I'll take the Texans outright though is because they are the Bengals. They haven't won a playoff game in my lifetime and frankly I would like to be able to say that tomorrow and in the future. Also in Marvin Lewis' three playoff games he is 0-3 and they have lost by an average of 15 points. It makes me nervous to pick the slumping Texans but they are at home and Reliant Stadium is a very good home field advantage.

Packers 31, Vikings 20 --- GB -8  The Vikings beat the Packers just six days ago but that was inside in Minnesota. The Vikings are only 3-5 on the road this season but they are 0-4 when playing outside. Meanwhile the Packers are 7-1 at home this year and they did finish the season 9-2 in their last 11. As long as the Packers can find a way to contain Adrian Peterson to under 200 yards they should be able to outscore the Vikings. Plus this is Christian Ponder's first playoff game so it would surprise me if he made a few key mistakes that really hurt the team. The Packers are going to want to redeem themselves from last year's embarrassing loss to the Giants in their first playoff game after going 15-1.

PLAYOFFS?!?!? PUMPED (even though the only game I'll see will probably be the Ravens vs Colts tomorrow)