NFL Conference Championships

It's already Conference Championship time. Where did the season go? With the Steelers out all I am rooting for is legacies. Meaning I don't want anybody I dislike to win a Super Bowl. So no Patriots or Packers honestly. I don't want Rodgers to tie Big Ben with two rings. I don't want TFB to win his fourth. I don't necessarily want the Seahawks to go back-to-back or belly-to-belly as John Sterling would say but if they do it at least I wouldn't have to hear that the last team to repeat as the champions were the Patriots. All that being said, I just hope that both games are exciting. This is a great football weekend and it would stink if both games are blowouts. 

I went 3-2 for picks last week. Hopefully I get both picks correct today. 

Seahawks 28, Packers 17 --- SEA -8 

Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field this year, 9-0, 28 touchdowns, ZERO interceptions. On the road, 4-4, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. The Seahawks at home are 7-1 this year and in their past seven games they have only allowed 8 points per game. The Seahawks are also 10-2 all-time in Seattle during the playoffs, the best winning percentage in NFL history. 

I just think the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL and I'd like to believe that a great defense can stop an amazing quarterback. I expect Russell Wilson to make just enough plays and he won't turn the ball over. Marshawn Lynch should be able to run the ball and the Seahawks offense will get into the 20's which will be plenty of points for their defense. 

Colts 34, Patriots 30 --- IND +240 and IND +7  This is me pushing all my chips to the middle of the table. I'm all in for the Colts. Sergio Brown has the "It" factor for me. I might just play this YouTube video on repeat during the game instead of listening to Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. Before I actually talk about the game, can we all agree that Phil Simms is the worst commentator on television? I know that nowadays everybody dislikes every single person on TV, but I like Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. I love Gruden and Tircio. I really like Collinsworth and Al Michaels. I feel like I learn things during the game when Aikman, Gruden, or Collinsworth talk. When Phil Simms chimes in I actually get dumber. He is the worst and oh yeah he loves every single thing Lord Brady does all game, every game. So that doesn't help his case. 

As for the game, I realize that the Patriots have the potential to blow the Colts out of the stadium. If Andrew Luck throws two or more picks, the Colts have about a 1% chance of winning. The Colts have lost five straight against the Patriots and they are 0-3 with Luck at QB. In the past three games the Colts have been outscored 144-66. However this stat caught my attention. The mighty Bill Belichick is only 9-8 in the playoffs when he faces a team for the second time in the season, compared to 10-0 against teams he did not face that year. 

Let's be honest, I just want the Patriots to lose. I've been saying this for years but I cannot have TFB and Belichick getting their fourth ring to match Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw. Can't have that. Let's go Colts.

P.S. When the Patriots obviously win and play the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, I can and will say I predicted that Super Bowl matchup in August. I'm just covering all my bases by saying the Colts will win today. 

Enjoy the games people. Only 3 meaningful football games left. 

NFL Divisional Round Day 2

So the Patriots can officially book their tickets to Phoenix. There is no chance they lose next week to either the Colts or the Broncos. Joe Flaccooooo made a horrible decision throwing it deep on the Ravens last drive. He was probably just hoping for a pass interference call but it wasn't a great choice. The Patriots earned that win coming back from a 14-point deficit twice. Their nickel and dime offense was unstoppable in the second half. I was rooting against the Patriots but I will say this, thanks to them I do not have to hear about Joey FLACCOOOO being ELITE. The Ravens are out and Flacco cannot match Big Ben's two Super Bowl titles. That's the good news. The bad news is Billy B and Lord Brady still have a chance to match Chuck Noll's and the original TFB's (Terry Bradshaw) four Super Bowl titles.

As for the Seahawks/Panthers game. The Panthers gave them a good shot. They hung around in that game much longer than I thought they would. Unfortunately for them the three turnovers killed them. Also they had to play against Kam Chancellor. That guy is a freak of nature. The block field goal attempts to end the first half was remarkable. Then the 90-yard pick six sealed the deal. I really don't see the Seahawks losing next week. Rusty Wilson threw some dimes and like usual didn't turned the ball over. I think we are destined for a Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl.

Now it's time for the picks...

Cowboys 23, Packers 21 --- DAL +5 First off, I think the call in the Cowboys/Lions game should have stayed a pass interference. It was an iffy call to begin with but if you throw the flag and announce it to the crowd you have to stick with it. As far as conspiracies go, sure Roger "The Goods" Goodell probably wanted to see the Cowboys play the Packers but I doubt anything fishy went on.
Onto this game, I think the Cowboys have something special going on. To survive and advance like they did last week, they should have some momentum today. The Packers are rested but Aaron Rodgers has a calf injury that could hinder his ability to move around. I'm going to take the Cowboys because they are 8-0 on the road, so going into Lambeau shouldn't scare them. Also, and I hate to say it but, Romo needs to avoid the big mistake. I know he has been great this season but the reputation of him being a Brett Favre gunslinger is going to be with him forever.

Colts 41, Broncos 36 --- IND +8.5 and Over 53.5

My reasoning for this pick makes no sense. All year I've doubted the Colts and said they really haven't beaten anybody good, especially on the road. But then Sergio Brown came along and made me believe in the Colts. It may be irrational but I am all in. Give me two claps and a Ric Flair. 

In all seriousness though, I really the Broncos are ripe for the picking. Peyton Manning has not looked great over the past few weeks. He's always thrown ducks but recently every throw seems shaky. The Broncos are going to need to run the ball very well if they want to win, and they just might. I just think Andrew Luck could have a day today. It would be pretty special for him if he could defeat the greatest QB in Colts history in the playoffs. 

As far as the over goes, I'm guessing there will be some turnovers which will lead to quick points and if anything, the Colts fall behind early to force Luck to fling it often. 53.5 is certainly doable. 

Enjoy the games people. 

NFL Divisional Round Day 1

Last week I didn't do too well picking games. I was only 1-3 for spreads and 2-2 picking outright winners. These next two days are what most people refer to as the best weekend of football. Therefore, I am hoping for a lot of good games and upsets, while also getting my picks correct. Onto the picks...

Patriots 24, Ravens 20 --- BAL +7 Unfortunately for me I have to endure yet another year of watching my two most hated teams play each other in the playoffs. The good thing though is that at least this is not the AFC Championship. Anyways, while it obviously stinks that the Steelers got eliminated last weekend I think the only team in the AFC standing in the way of the Patriots trip to another Super Bowl is the Ravens. If the Pats win today they can book their tickets to Phoenix because the Broncos or the Colts are not winning in Foxboro next weekend.
The key to this game is the Ravens defense. Last week they were able to sack Big Ben five times, which had actually been one of the Steelers strengths this season. If the Ravens can create pressure on Lord Brady, who got sacked the fourth fewest times in the NFL, the Patriots offense may struggle just enough. Stopping the Gronk is also going to be a huge factor but rookie C.J. Mosley might be up to the task.
I think this game will be close but in the end I think the Patriots pull out the victory and advance to the AFC Championship where they will steamroll either Peyton or Andrew Luck.

P.S. I'm not sure if there is a prop bet for will Brandon Browner commit a pass interference penalty on a patented Joe FLACCCCOOOO Fling it up and pray for P.I., but I would bet my life that it will happen.

Seahawks 20, Panthers 9 --- CAR +11.5 The Panthers might get run out of the building in this game if the Seahawks start strong and build an early lead. However, if the Panthers don't turn the ball over and possibly force one turnover they could stay in the game. Last week the Panthers defense received no credit for holding the Cardinals offense to a measly 78 yards. Maybe they don't deserve much credit because the Cardinals are that terrible with Ryan Lindley, but 78 yards allowed is good no matter who you play.
The Seahawks should win this game because they are the better team but I'll take the Panthers with the points and hope they are competitive.


Enjoy the games people.

Wild Card Round Day 2

First off the Cardinals offense was just horrific. 78 total yards? It's a miracle that they only lost by 11. It stinks for the Cardinals that they could not get a better third string quarterback than Ryan Lindley. If Carson Palmer had stayed healthy, who knows what the Cardinals could have been. One guy I feel horrible for is Larry Fitzgerald. He should ask to be released if the Cardinals can't re-sign Palmer or find a better QB than Lindley or Drew Stanton. As for the Panthers, Cam Newton can credit his defense all he wants but the Panthers were handed that game. They are going to have a very tough task next weekend either at Seattle or at Green Bay. If the Panthers turn the ball over three times against those teams they will lose. Also how about Cam being only the second Heisman Trophy winning QB to win a playoff games since 1987. Tim Tebow is the other one.

Now the Steelers. I don't want to be the guy that blames a loss on an injury but not having Le'Veon Bell was huge. I'm not saying the Steelers win with him, but they don't lose by 13 with Bell in the backfield. In the first half they needed to find the end zone, but like it's been all year long they settled for field goals.
I'm not sure what to make of the Steelers season. 11-5 and winning the AFC North is a helluva lot better than going 8-8 but I'm also not sure if I want to call the season a success. I'm glad they made the playoffs but a first round home exit doesn't feel great. Offensively you have to say it was successful considering the numbers Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon put up. If those three can stay healthy the Steelers offense is going to be very dangerous in the years to come, especially with the improved offensive line and weapons surrounding them. Defensively they were a nightmare for most of the season. I have a feeling Troy Polamalu's days are numbered. He really looked slow last night and all season. Will Allen was a better option. I'm guessing Ike Taylor has played his last game as a Steeler. Who knows if Brett Keisel or James Harrison will come back for another year. They have some young talent but they need to get a lot better if they want to start winning playoff games.
The only positive about losing to the Ravens is that I actually think they have a chance against the Patriots. I have to give Joe Flacco credit, he plays well in the playoffs. I still hate how their offense is somewhat based on Flacco throwing up deep balls hoping for pass interference calls. It's effective but it's annoying. I hate to say it but I'll be rooting for the Ravens next week. Can't have TFB and Bill getting their 4th Super Bowl. I don't want to live in that world... I also don't want to live in a world with FLACCCCCOOOO having two rings though...

Onto the picks. I went 0-2 yesterday, so I need to get today's picks correct.

Colts 31, Bengals 17 --- IND -3 The Bengals have still yet to win a playoff game in my lifetime (I love saying that). Not having A.J. Green today won't help their chances against a Colts team that has already beaten the Bengals 27-0 earlier this season. I feel pretty confident in the Colts pick because they have Andrew Luck at QB instead of Andy Dalton. While the Colts, really don't have all that impressive of a resume, going only 2-4 against teams that made the playoffs, I like their chances at home.
Also if Marvin Lewis loses today does he finally get the boot? He would be 0-6 in the playoffs if the Bungals go down today. I'm on the fence. While I think at 0-6 maybe it's time for somebody else to attempt to get this team over the hump, you have to give Lewis credit for the making the Bengals a competitive team over his 12-year tenure. Only twice has he lost double-digit games in a season compared to the five straight 10-loss seasons before he was hired. If you are the Bengals are you content with making the playoffs most years but not really getting anything done in January or would you like to risk what you've accomplished recently by bringing in a new coach?

Cowboys 28, Lions 17 --- DAL -6.5 The Cowboys are rolling heading into the playoffs, having won their previous four games all by double digits. The Lions are similar to Bengals, having not won a playoff game since 1991. If the Lions are going to win this game their offense to have to score more than 20 points, something they haven't done since December 7th. I normally don't root for the Cowboys but I think this is finally the year I do it. Frankly it's because I really don't want the Seahawks or Packers to get to the Super Bowl. I have a bad feeling that Tony Romo will have a Romo-esque moment at some point this postseason despite his fantastic regular season. I think they get the win today but next week at Lambeau could be tough.

Enjoy the games people.

Wild Card Round Day 1

17 weeks have come and gone and now only 12 teams remain, thankfully one of them is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Before the season my Super Bowl prediction, albeit an obvious choice, was the Patriots losing to the Seahawks. I don't see any reason to change that pick right now considering both teams have home field advantage in the playoffs. At least this year both of my Super Bowl teams made the playoffs, don't think I forgot about you 2013 Atlanta Falcons. Anyways onto the picks for Saturday's games...

Overall: 147-95   Spread: 40-35-1

Cardinals 17, Panthers 16 --- ARZ +6.5 Last week I said that I was picking the winner of the Falcons/Panthers game to win their first playoff game no matter what. Well, my opinion changed once I found out that the Panthers were nearly a touchdown favorite against an 11-win team. The Panthers, despite being under .500, earned the NFC South title by winning four games in a row. That four game winning streak can be a bit deceiving considering those wins are over Tampa Bay, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Atlanta.
The Cardinals stumbled in the stretch losing four of six with Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, and even Logan Thomas at quarterback. However, two of those losses came to the Seahawks and they did beat the Rams and the Chiefs in weeks 14 and 15. I think the Cardinals will cover the spread and possibly win if their defense can keep the Panthers under 20 points.

Steelers 24, Ravens 20 --- PIT -3 Let's just get the most obvious statement out of the way, as a Steelers fan I cannot in good conscience pick the Ratbirds to come into Pittsburgh and win a playoff game. Can't do it. Am I nervous that the Steelers will lose without Le'Veon Bell playing? Yes, but the Steelers are 3-0 against the Ravens in the playoffs (2-0 vs FLACCCCOOOO) and the Steelers also have an impressive 9-0 record when playing a team for the third time in the same season. 

The weather forecast is calling for rain with temperatures in the low 40's, which could favor the Ravens considering the Steelers will likely need to win the game through the air.

The two keys for the Steelers are the need for them to get something going on the ground with Ben Tate, Josh Harris, or Dri Archer. It doesn't need to be a 100+ yard game on the ground but they need to prove to the Ravens that they can at least run it a little. 

Secondly, they can't get beat by Joe FLACCCOOOOO's deep ball. The Steelers secondary has been playing pretty well ever since A.J. Green torched them in week 14 but if Torrey Smith catches a few long balls to either score or even just to flip field position the Ravens will have a big advantage. Also don't let Jacoby Jones return a kick for a touchdown. 

I'm really not expecting the Steelers to win or make it to the Super Bowl but a playoff win over the Ravens would certainly make me think this year has been somewhat successful. 

PLAYOFFS?!?!? Enjoy the games people.