2015 PGA Championship Prediction

Another major in the books. The Open finishing on a Monday certainly my work day go by much faster. Zach Johnson won his second major. Spieth kind of choked at the end but was once again in contention for a major. Tiger missed another cut. All in all it was a great major played at St. Andrews.

As for the picks, I thought I was about to end my drought of never picking a winner with Louis Oosthuzien but he came up a bit short in the playoff against Zach Johnson. The second place finish however kept me in the lead with an average finishing position on 19.3. Martin Kaymer went four under on Sunday to finish in 12th to move Mike into second place with a 32 average. Currently taking home the bronze with a 35 average is Tim, after Francesco Molinari finished 40th, but he did shoot a 67 on Sunday to improve his standing by 34 spots.

Onto the PGA Championship, the fourth major that isn't as great as the other three but it's still a major and they give out a massive trophy to the winner so there's that. Let's get to the picks.

One of these major we are going to get Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, and Rickie Fowler battling it out at the top of the leaderboard. Hopefully it'll be this one but with Rory coming off his ankle injury, who knows how well he will play. Spieth at 5/1 is almost a sure bet to be in the hunt come Sunday and Rickie at 20/1 is still looking for his first top 10 finish in a major this year.

Dustin Johnson at 14/1 is among the favorites. He fell apart on the weekend after leading the Open but in 2010 at Whistling Straits he nearly made the playoff with Martin Kaymer and Bubba Watson but he grounded his club in a bunker and received a penalty. He should be around the lead at some point but I'm not going with DJ.

I'm sticking to the new Louis Oosthuizen theory of taking the guy who won the last major at the same course thanks to OO making the playoff against Zach Johnson at St. Andrews after winning there in 2010. Therefore Martin Kaymer at 50/1 will be my pick since he won at Whistling Straits in 2010. Kaymer had missed three major cuts in a row before making the cut at the British Open, finishing 12th a month ago after a strong Sunday. The two-time major champion clearly has the talent to compete in majors and considering this is the course he won his first major at I highly doubt that he'll miss the cut (knock on wood).

Picks from the Bros ---

Mike Moriarty is going with Jason Day at 10/1. Day has yet to win a major but he has been strong in majors this year finishing 9th in the US Open and 4th at St. Andrews. He now has 10 top ten finishes in majors and you'd have to think one of these tournaments he will finally get over the hump and win one. In 2010 at Whistling Straits, Day finished 10th so it won't be a shock if he's in the mix come Sunday.

Tim Leavitt on the other hand is going with another long shot to win. At 100/1 odds Tim has selected David Lingmerth to get his first major victory. In Lingmerth's past six events, he has finished sixth or better four times, including his first PGA victory at the Memorial. The 28-year-old Swede doesn't have a strong resume in Majors though, having only played in three of them. He didn't make the cut in his only PGA Championship two years but he has been playing very well, so missing the cut would be a bit of a surprise.


Enjoy the tournament people.


P.S. Tiger might make the cut in this one. Maybe. Also Zach Johnson at 50/1 is stealing. Sure it's unlikely he'd go back to back but it's worth the risk.

2015 British Open Prediction

After a blowout at the Masters we certainly had some drama coming down the stretch at the U.S. Open. From Jordan Spieth taking a four stroke lead, then doubling 17 to let Dustin Johnson tie him after his birdie on 17, to the great approach shot on the par five 18th by Spieth, to the DJ three-putt on 18 to lose. Great tournament. No complaints from me about the course. Sure the greens looked horrible but everybody had to putt on the same greens.

As for the picks, Sergio helped me out big time by barely making the cut to then fight back to finish in 18th. Justin Rose (Tim's pick) had a rough Sunday to finish 27th, and Rickie Fowler (Mike's pick)...well it was great opening round for Rickie as he ended out missing the cut. Which means for the first time ever, yours truly in first place after two majors.

Onto the Open Championship. I've said this about the Masters and the U.S. Open but the British Open is equally as awesome. Love links golf. Love St. Andrews. Love pot bunkers and I love how the tournament will end around 3 pm on Sunday, which will give me plenty of time to hit the links afterwards.

Let's get to the picks. For once I actually don't have a ton of names to mention.

Jordan Spieth certainly has a chance to make history if he win this one. It certainly wouldn't be a shock if he pulls it off. He won last week at the John Deere Classic and Vegas has him listed at 5/1, which is early 2000's Tiger-esque. I hope he does win but I don't think it'll happen. Three in a row is just so rare.

Hate Tiger. No idea how he is listed at 20/1. I know he has won at St. Andrews twice but no matter how much he says he's healthy and that his swing is coming back I won't believe it until I see it. He was a joke a the U.S. Open and frankly I don't expect this Thursday and Friday to be any different for Eldrick.

My pick was made hours after the U.S. Open ended. Give me Louis Oosthuizen at 22/1 odds. He has become a very popular pick and that makes a ton of sense. The way he finished the U.S. Open, by birdieing six of his final seven holes to shoot a 29 on the back, and the fact that he won The Open Championship the last time it was held at St. Andrews. Oosthuizen won that major by seven strokes with a final score of -16. However since that win, he has not finished better than 19th at The Open. He also hasn't played well since the U.S. Open. He missed the cut at the Travelers, which even Jim Renner made that cut, and then he finished in 70th at the Greenbrier. Now I'm making myself nervous but it's too late for that. Let's go Louie OO!!


Picks from the Bros ---

Tim Leavitt is going with a dark horse selection from Italy. At 100/1 odds, Francesco Molinari will be Tim's pick. The 32-year old paisan missed the cut the last time The Open was played at St. Andrews and hasn't won a tournament since 2012. However, Molinari has finished in the top 15 at The Open on three different occasions in the past six years, with a 9th place finish being his best in 2013. It's never a bad idea to pick a European player considering Euro's have won four of the past eight Open's.

Mike Moriarty is going with Martin Kaymer at 33/1 to win his third career major. Kaymer has only made the cut in one major since his U.S. Open victory last summer. He also hasn't won since that victory a year ago but he did finish 7th in 2010 when The Open course was St. Andrews. You'd have to assume he will make a cut at a major eventually considering he is the 18th ranked player in the world.

Enjoy the tournament people.


P.S. If Sergio wins this tournament I might take him out at next year's Travelers Championship. He will win now that I'm not picking him. What a jerk. Still like him somehow.

2015 U.S. Open Prediction

One major in the books and let's hope that this one has a little more drama than the Masters did. Jordan Spieth was amazing at Augusta but his huge lead made Sunday a bit anti-climactic. My Jimmy Walker pick wasn't the best but at least he made the cut, tying for 38th. Adam Scott (Tim's pick) also finished in 38th and Dustin Johnson (Mike's pick) placed sixth, giving Mike the early lead.

As for this U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in Washington, I am pumped. The course looks like it is going to be very challenging. Golf balls can be bounced on fairways like basketballs. The layout looks interesting and the grass is pretty much dead.

I love the U.S. Open when the champion finishes right at even par. This tournament is and should be the toughest test of the year. I'm not sure how excited am I hear Joe Buck announce golf but hey at least it's not going to be Johnny Miller telling me how he shot a 63 at Oakmont in 1973 on a Sunday to win the U.S. Open.

Anyways, let's get to the picks. I have so many names that I love and want to pick so bare with me for a moment.

Love Phil Mickelson at 14/1. He has been playing some pretty good golf lately and people probably forgot that he finished second at Augusta because Spieth dominated. Philip has SIX second place finishes at the U.S. Open. SIX?!? He's only missed the cut one time in this event since 1994, so I expect Phil to be hanging around the lead but he is not the pick.

Graeme McDowell at 66/1 might not be a bad choice. He won the U.S. Open in 2010 and he also has a second place finish. Also sort of like Patrick Reed at 44/1 for no real reason. He's only played in one U.S. Open but he does have four PGA Tour wins over the past two years.

Here is the guy I almost went with. Jason Day at 25/1. In five trips to the U.S. Open, Day has two runner-ups and a fourth place finish. He is only 27 years old and is on the cusp of winning his first major. I really want to pick him but there is one golfer I just can't quit.

Sergio Garcia at 25/1 is my official pick. I picked him last year in this event and he came in 35th, which prompted me to chirp at him the next weekend at the Traveler's Championship as he was walking to the 17th hole. I don't even know if like Sergio anymore. I more or less just want him to win a major so I can feel some type of satisfaction that I stuck with him because if we are being honest the guy is a bit of a choker. He lost the playoff to Rickie Fowler at the The Players Championship but he had the tournament in the bag before a bogey on 14 opened the door for Rickie to make a comeback. He hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2012.

The reason why I'm taking my old friend Sergio is because of the style of the course. In the pacific northwest hopefully it gets a little windy and almost plays like a British Open, where Sergio has been very good, having eight top tens over the pond since 2001. So good luck Sergio.


Picks from the Bros ---


Mike Moriarty, the defending pick champion and current leader, is going with Rickie Fowler to get his first major win. Rickie is at 18/1 odds to win. He is fresh off an impressive playoff victory at the Players Championship in May. In his past five majors he has finished no worse than 12th place, including a runner-up in the U.S. Open last June. It certainly seems like Rickie will be in contention.

Tim Leavitt is going with his second straight 2013 major winner, Justin Rose, who won this tournament two years ago. Rose is among the favorites in the tourney with 18/1 odds. The links style course should play to his strengths. Rose has been up and down at the U.S. open throughout his career. He has missed the cut four times but he also has three top ten finishes and a 12th place finish last year at Pinehurst.


Enjoy the tournament people


P.S. --- Sleeper pick of the century --- Troy Kelly at +50000 to win. So bet one dollar to win $500. I originally had no clue who this guy was but he's from Tacoma, Washington which is right near Chambers Bay, so I'm assuming he knows the course a little bit. He hasn't played in a U.S. Open since 2005 when he missed the cut. However, with those odds why not take a flyer?

2015 Masters Prediction

After finally getting through a long winter, there is nothing better then hearing that music and watching the Masters to start off the spring. Last year was another 0 for 4 season of picking majors for me, bringing my grand total of picks to 1 for 12. I also came in last place against Mike Moriarty and Tim Leavitt. Here is how last year went.

1- Mike Moriarty - Kuchar (5th), Day (4th), Stenson (39th), Rory (1st) = Average place 12.25

2- Tim Leavitt - D.J. (CUT), Spieth (17th), McDowell (9th), Fowler (3rd) = Average 20.25

3- Brendan Driscoll - Rory (8th), Sergio (35th), Sergio (2nd), Keegan (CUT) = Average 29.75

Thank you very much Keegan Bradley for laying an egg in the PGA Championship. Mike finally broke the streak of never picking a winner correctly with Rory McIlroy in the PGA Championship. Tim's pick continued to improve throughout the year. Hopefully that continues for his sake.

As for this year let me start of with Tiger Woods. I, for one, am not buying any of this good press that was going around yesterday such as, he shot a 30 on the front nine, he is so relaxed that he is playing in the Par 3 contest today, his back and health are 100%.

That has been the theme for every single major Tiger has played at for the past five years. He gets so much attention for being "back" even though he hasn't won a major since 2008. He's barely played at all this year.

I don't want to say he's going to miss the cut because he has made 17 straight at Augusta but here is my prediction for his week. On Thursday he will shoot a +1 or +2 and be about six shots back. People will say he's still in it maybe. Then on Friday he will double bogey a hole on the back nine hole after a solid round. He will then grab his back as if he's really hurting. The media will give him sympathy and he will be an afterthought on the weekend.

I'm over all the hype. I really hope Tiger proves me wrong and contends because golf is more exciting when Tiger is in contention on Sunday's but I'll believe it when I see it.

Anyways, let's get to the picks. I have a ton of names that I like and it was pretty tough to finally choose one. I liked Victor Dubuisson, the Frenchman who looks like a pirate. He missed the cut last year though so no thanks. Jordan Spieth is going to win a major eventually. He finished second last year at Augusta. He's a 10/1 odds. Jason Day is another solid pick having two top four finishes at Augusta in the past four years. Day and Spieth are just too big of favorites for me.

One more golfer to mention before my actual pick. Jonas Blixt is currently going off at 150/1 to 175/1 odds. He came in second place last year. Well worth a two dollar bet in my opinion.

Here is my actual pick. Jimmy Walker at 22/1. Walker is 36 and last year was his first time playing at Augusta. He played well finishing in 8th place. Walker played very well in the majors last year finishing in the top 10 three times. He has also been very hot to start this year, winning two PGA events. Who knows if he will actually win the Green Jacket but I think he will be in the hunt come Sunday.

Picks from the Bros ---

The defending Major Tournament Prediction Champion, Mike Moriarty, is going with Dustin Johnson at 16/1. Hopefully DJ fares better than he did last year when Tim picked him to win this tournament, considering he missed the cut. That being said DJ may have been on all kinds of drugs last April. Ever since his hiatus from golf he has been playing very well, winning a month ago at Doral and also having three other top six finishing in 2015.

Tim Leavitt is going with the 2013 Masters Champion, Adam Scott at 20/1. Scott has only one top 10 finish in 2015 but he has a long history of playing well at Augusta. Last year he finished tied for 14th, which was his worst finish at the Masters since 2010 when he finished in 18th. Tim is hoping the switch back to the long putter will propel Scott to his second Green Jacket.

Enjoy the tourney people.


P.S. --- Prop Bet Alert --- Will there be an albatross +1200?  2 dollars to win 24. Why not? I just saw Jack Nicholas hit a hole in one. Somebody could drop a double eagle.

Super Bowl XLIX

We all know who is in the Super Bowl. We all know the keys to the game. Everything has been said about Deflategate. It's finally game time. Here are my favorite prop bets for the game and then I'll actually make a pick.

Coin Flip = TAILS (-103)

In 48 Super Bowls the battle between Heads and Tails is a legendary one. The series is tied at 24 a piece. It truly is a 50/50 matchup. Last year Tails broke Head's five year winning streak and as the old saying goes, Tails never fails. I think Tails is due for a little run.

Idina Menzel's national anthem length? Under 122.5 seconds

I usually always take the over in these situations but after hearing Menzel talk on the Dan Le Batard show this week, I'm leaning under. Her pervious anthem performances lasted 1:34 and 2:02. She did say that say may milk it a little bit today but I think the nerves gets to people in the spot and it may make her rush just a tiny bit. Give me the under. Sing fast Frozen lady.

Will Marshawn Lynch grab his crotch after scoring a touchdown in the game? Yes (4/1)

This is a tough one because you are also assuming Marshawn Lynch scores a touchdown, which he has done in three of the Seahawks last four games.  The NFL has also came out and said he grabs his crotch again the referee's have been told to throw a penalty flag on him for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Clearly Marshawn could care less about being fined $20,000 or more so the big question mark is if Pete Carroll tells him not to hurt his team's chances of winning the game by doing something stupid in the end zone.  Personally, I think if the Seahawks score in the fourth quarter to make it a two possession game, Marshawn will go for the grab.  Plus the odds a 6/1 would be a decent payoff.  So grab away Marshawn.

What color will BillBelichick's hoodie be? Blue (7/4)  + Hoodie Type? Cut Sleeves (2/3)

Here is Bill Belichick's wardrobe choices in his first five Super Bowl appearances.

Super Bowl 36 - Victory over the St. Louis Rams - Blue, long sleeve pullover

Super Bowl 38 - Victory over the Carolina Panthers - Blue, long sleeve pullover

Super Bowl 39 - Victory over the Philadelphia Eagles - Grey hoodie, long sleeves

Super Bowl 42 - Loss to the New York Giants - Red hoodie, cut sleeves

Super Bowl 46 - Loss to the New York Giants - Grey hoodie, cut sleeves

First off I am picking cut sleeves for Belichick.  I know he's 0-2 with cut sleeves but Super Bowl 42 was also in Arizona and he went cut sleeves.  Even if they kept the roof open it's going to be hot in Glendale, so I think cut sleeves is the way to go.

As for color of the hoodie, I think Bill has to go blue.  Red clearly didn't work as David Tyree made the helmet catch and the Patriots finished the year 18-1.  I don't know if Bill is superstitious or anything but if somebody told me you are 2-0 wearing a blue hoodie in the Super Bowl, I'm wearing blue.

How many times will Katy Perry be mentioned in the first half? Over 1.5

Free money.  Way OVER 1.5.  I can't believe that's the line.  Do you realize how many times the NFL is going to make NBC mention the halftime show with Katy Perry?  It's probably going to happen after every punt/kickoff/return from commercial.

Maybe I'm overestimating but think about it, they have to mention it at the two-minute warning, so that's a guaranteed one.  Plus you figure they would mention it randomly in the first quarter just to let the non-football fan what is coming at halftime.  Way Over.

Will Al Michaels refer to the point spread, total, odds on who wins game or any prop bet? Yes (2/1)

Al Michaels has a history of being aware of the gambling lines during the games he announces.  That being said, this is the Super Bowl and if Goodell has anything to say to Al Michaels I'm sure it would revolve not mentioning gambling because the Commish doesn't want us to know that gambling on the NFL happens or anything.

I think Al is enough of a wild card to talk about gambling anyway.  I'll say yes.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his interview? Fans/City (15/2)

This may be the trickiest one of them all.  First you have to think who the likely MVP will be.  Russell Wilson and Tom Brady are the favorites but then who wins the game?  I'm rooting for the Seahawks, and if Wilson doesn't play like he did in the NFC Championship he could be a contender for the MVP.  If he wins he will mention God and the Seahawks fans near the start of his speech.  A lot depends on how the game plays out.  However if the Patriots win and Tommy Brady is the MVP he will likely mention his teammates or fans maybe.

Therefore I will take Fans/City at 15/2.  Those odds are pretty favorable if it works out.  Plus if any other Seahawks player wins they love their 12th man and they always play to them.


Now for the actual game pick...

Seahawks 27, Patriots 21 --- SEA +1

I think this game will come down to the fourth quarter and I am very nervous that the Patriots will get the victory. It's been a long time since TFB has hoisted a Lombardi Trophy and I'd prefer it to stay that way.
I'm picking the Seahawks because I really believed they dodged a bullet two weeks ago. They should not have beaten the Packers but they did. Russell Wilson will not play as bad as he did in the NFC Championship. As long as Marshawn Lynch can run a little bit the Seahawks offense should be alright.
Just win Seahawks. Please.



Enjoy the last football game until August people.

NFL Conference Championships

It's already Conference Championship time. Where did the season go? With the Steelers out all I am rooting for is legacies. Meaning I don't want anybody I dislike to win a Super Bowl. So no Patriots or Packers honestly. I don't want Rodgers to tie Big Ben with two rings. I don't want TFB to win his fourth. I don't necessarily want the Seahawks to go back-to-back or belly-to-belly as John Sterling would say but if they do it at least I wouldn't have to hear that the last team to repeat as the champions were the Patriots. All that being said, I just hope that both games are exciting. This is a great football weekend and it would stink if both games are blowouts. 

I went 3-2 for picks last week. Hopefully I get both picks correct today. 

Seahawks 28, Packers 17 --- SEA -8 

Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field this year, 9-0, 28 touchdowns, ZERO interceptions. On the road, 4-4, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. The Seahawks at home are 7-1 this year and in their past seven games they have only allowed 8 points per game. The Seahawks are also 10-2 all-time in Seattle during the playoffs, the best winning percentage in NFL history. 

I just think the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL and I'd like to believe that a great defense can stop an amazing quarterback. I expect Russell Wilson to make just enough plays and he won't turn the ball over. Marshawn Lynch should be able to run the ball and the Seahawks offense will get into the 20's which will be plenty of points for their defense. 

Colts 34, Patriots 30 --- IND +240 and IND +7  This is me pushing all my chips to the middle of the table. I'm all in for the Colts. Sergio Brown has the "It" factor for me. I might just play this YouTube video on repeat during the game instead of listening to Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. Before I actually talk about the game, can we all agree that Phil Simms is the worst commentator on television? I know that nowadays everybody dislikes every single person on TV, but I like Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. I love Gruden and Tircio. I really like Collinsworth and Al Michaels. I feel like I learn things during the game when Aikman, Gruden, or Collinsworth talk. When Phil Simms chimes in I actually get dumber. He is the worst and oh yeah he loves every single thing Lord Brady does all game, every game. So that doesn't help his case. 

As for the game, I realize that the Patriots have the potential to blow the Colts out of the stadium. If Andrew Luck throws two or more picks, the Colts have about a 1% chance of winning. The Colts have lost five straight against the Patriots and they are 0-3 with Luck at QB. In the past three games the Colts have been outscored 144-66. However this stat caught my attention. The mighty Bill Belichick is only 9-8 in the playoffs when he faces a team for the second time in the season, compared to 10-0 against teams he did not face that year. 

Let's be honest, I just want the Patriots to lose. I've been saying this for years but I cannot have TFB and Belichick getting their fourth ring to match Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw. Can't have that. Let's go Colts.

P.S. When the Patriots obviously win and play the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, I can and will say I predicted that Super Bowl matchup in August. I'm just covering all my bases by saying the Colts will win today. 

Enjoy the games people. Only 3 meaningful football games left. 

NFL Divisional Round Day 2

So the Patriots can officially book their tickets to Phoenix. There is no chance they lose next week to either the Colts or the Broncos. Joe Flaccooooo made a horrible decision throwing it deep on the Ravens last drive. He was probably just hoping for a pass interference call but it wasn't a great choice. The Patriots earned that win coming back from a 14-point deficit twice. Their nickel and dime offense was unstoppable in the second half. I was rooting against the Patriots but I will say this, thanks to them I do not have to hear about Joey FLACCOOOO being ELITE. The Ravens are out and Flacco cannot match Big Ben's two Super Bowl titles. That's the good news. The bad news is Billy B and Lord Brady still have a chance to match Chuck Noll's and the original TFB's (Terry Bradshaw) four Super Bowl titles.

As for the Seahawks/Panthers game. The Panthers gave them a good shot. They hung around in that game much longer than I thought they would. Unfortunately for them the three turnovers killed them. Also they had to play against Kam Chancellor. That guy is a freak of nature. The block field goal attempts to end the first half was remarkable. Then the 90-yard pick six sealed the deal. I really don't see the Seahawks losing next week. Rusty Wilson threw some dimes and like usual didn't turned the ball over. I think we are destined for a Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl.

Now it's time for the picks...

Cowboys 23, Packers 21 --- DAL +5 First off, I think the call in the Cowboys/Lions game should have stayed a pass interference. It was an iffy call to begin with but if you throw the flag and announce it to the crowd you have to stick with it. As far as conspiracies go, sure Roger "The Goods" Goodell probably wanted to see the Cowboys play the Packers but I doubt anything fishy went on.
Onto this game, I think the Cowboys have something special going on. To survive and advance like they did last week, they should have some momentum today. The Packers are rested but Aaron Rodgers has a calf injury that could hinder his ability to move around. I'm going to take the Cowboys because they are 8-0 on the road, so going into Lambeau shouldn't scare them. Also, and I hate to say it but, Romo needs to avoid the big mistake. I know he has been great this season but the reputation of him being a Brett Favre gunslinger is going to be with him forever.

Colts 41, Broncos 36 --- IND +8.5 and Over 53.5

My reasoning for this pick makes no sense. All year I've doubted the Colts and said they really haven't beaten anybody good, especially on the road. But then Sergio Brown came along and made me believe in the Colts. It may be irrational but I am all in. Give me two claps and a Ric Flair. 

In all seriousness though, I really the Broncos are ripe for the picking. Peyton Manning has not looked great over the past few weeks. He's always thrown ducks but recently every throw seems shaky. The Broncos are going to need to run the ball very well if they want to win, and they just might. I just think Andrew Luck could have a day today. It would be pretty special for him if he could defeat the greatest QB in Colts history in the playoffs. 

As far as the over goes, I'm guessing there will be some turnovers which will lead to quick points and if anything, the Colts fall behind early to force Luck to fling it often. 53.5 is certainly doable. 

Enjoy the games people. 

NFL Divisional Round Day 1

Last week I didn't do too well picking games. I was only 1-3 for spreads and 2-2 picking outright winners. These next two days are what most people refer to as the best weekend of football. Therefore, I am hoping for a lot of good games and upsets, while also getting my picks correct. Onto the picks...

Patriots 24, Ravens 20 --- BAL +7 Unfortunately for me I have to endure yet another year of watching my two most hated teams play each other in the playoffs. The good thing though is that at least this is not the AFC Championship. Anyways, while it obviously stinks that the Steelers got eliminated last weekend I think the only team in the AFC standing in the way of the Patriots trip to another Super Bowl is the Ravens. If the Pats win today they can book their tickets to Phoenix because the Broncos or the Colts are not winning in Foxboro next weekend.
The key to this game is the Ravens defense. Last week they were able to sack Big Ben five times, which had actually been one of the Steelers strengths this season. If the Ravens can create pressure on Lord Brady, who got sacked the fourth fewest times in the NFL, the Patriots offense may struggle just enough. Stopping the Gronk is also going to be a huge factor but rookie C.J. Mosley might be up to the task.
I think this game will be close but in the end I think the Patriots pull out the victory and advance to the AFC Championship where they will steamroll either Peyton or Andrew Luck.

P.S. I'm not sure if there is a prop bet for will Brandon Browner commit a pass interference penalty on a patented Joe FLACCCCOOOO Fling it up and pray for P.I., but I would bet my life that it will happen.

Seahawks 20, Panthers 9 --- CAR +11.5 The Panthers might get run out of the building in this game if the Seahawks start strong and build an early lead. However, if the Panthers don't turn the ball over and possibly force one turnover they could stay in the game. Last week the Panthers defense received no credit for holding the Cardinals offense to a measly 78 yards. Maybe they don't deserve much credit because the Cardinals are that terrible with Ryan Lindley, but 78 yards allowed is good no matter who you play.
The Seahawks should win this game because they are the better team but I'll take the Panthers with the points and hope they are competitive.


Enjoy the games people.

Wild Card Round Day 2

First off the Cardinals offense was just horrific. 78 total yards? It's a miracle that they only lost by 11. It stinks for the Cardinals that they could not get a better third string quarterback than Ryan Lindley. If Carson Palmer had stayed healthy, who knows what the Cardinals could have been. One guy I feel horrible for is Larry Fitzgerald. He should ask to be released if the Cardinals can't re-sign Palmer or find a better QB than Lindley or Drew Stanton. As for the Panthers, Cam Newton can credit his defense all he wants but the Panthers were handed that game. They are going to have a very tough task next weekend either at Seattle or at Green Bay. If the Panthers turn the ball over three times against those teams they will lose. Also how about Cam being only the second Heisman Trophy winning QB to win a playoff games since 1987. Tim Tebow is the other one.

Now the Steelers. I don't want to be the guy that blames a loss on an injury but not having Le'Veon Bell was huge. I'm not saying the Steelers win with him, but they don't lose by 13 with Bell in the backfield. In the first half they needed to find the end zone, but like it's been all year long they settled for field goals.
I'm not sure what to make of the Steelers season. 11-5 and winning the AFC North is a helluva lot better than going 8-8 but I'm also not sure if I want to call the season a success. I'm glad they made the playoffs but a first round home exit doesn't feel great. Offensively you have to say it was successful considering the numbers Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon put up. If those three can stay healthy the Steelers offense is going to be very dangerous in the years to come, especially with the improved offensive line and weapons surrounding them. Defensively they were a nightmare for most of the season. I have a feeling Troy Polamalu's days are numbered. He really looked slow last night and all season. Will Allen was a better option. I'm guessing Ike Taylor has played his last game as a Steeler. Who knows if Brett Keisel or James Harrison will come back for another year. They have some young talent but they need to get a lot better if they want to start winning playoff games.
The only positive about losing to the Ravens is that I actually think they have a chance against the Patriots. I have to give Joe Flacco credit, he plays well in the playoffs. I still hate how their offense is somewhat based on Flacco throwing up deep balls hoping for pass interference calls. It's effective but it's annoying. I hate to say it but I'll be rooting for the Ravens next week. Can't have TFB and Bill getting their 4th Super Bowl. I don't want to live in that world... I also don't want to live in a world with FLACCCCCOOOO having two rings though...

Onto the picks. I went 0-2 yesterday, so I need to get today's picks correct.

Colts 31, Bengals 17 --- IND -3 The Bengals have still yet to win a playoff game in my lifetime (I love saying that). Not having A.J. Green today won't help their chances against a Colts team that has already beaten the Bengals 27-0 earlier this season. I feel pretty confident in the Colts pick because they have Andrew Luck at QB instead of Andy Dalton. While the Colts, really don't have all that impressive of a resume, going only 2-4 against teams that made the playoffs, I like their chances at home.
Also if Marvin Lewis loses today does he finally get the boot? He would be 0-6 in the playoffs if the Bungals go down today. I'm on the fence. While I think at 0-6 maybe it's time for somebody else to attempt to get this team over the hump, you have to give Lewis credit for the making the Bengals a competitive team over his 12-year tenure. Only twice has he lost double-digit games in a season compared to the five straight 10-loss seasons before he was hired. If you are the Bengals are you content with making the playoffs most years but not really getting anything done in January or would you like to risk what you've accomplished recently by bringing in a new coach?

Cowboys 28, Lions 17 --- DAL -6.5 The Cowboys are rolling heading into the playoffs, having won their previous four games all by double digits. The Lions are similar to Bengals, having not won a playoff game since 1991. If the Lions are going to win this game their offense to have to score more than 20 points, something they haven't done since December 7th. I normally don't root for the Cowboys but I think this is finally the year I do it. Frankly it's because I really don't want the Seahawks or Packers to get to the Super Bowl. I have a bad feeling that Tony Romo will have a Romo-esque moment at some point this postseason despite his fantastic regular season. I think they get the win today but next week at Lambeau could be tough.

Enjoy the games people.

Wild Card Round Day 1

17 weeks have come and gone and now only 12 teams remain, thankfully one of them is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Before the season my Super Bowl prediction, albeit an obvious choice, was the Patriots losing to the Seahawks. I don't see any reason to change that pick right now considering both teams have home field advantage in the playoffs. At least this year both of my Super Bowl teams made the playoffs, don't think I forgot about you 2013 Atlanta Falcons. Anyways onto the picks for Saturday's games...

Overall: 147-95   Spread: 40-35-1

Cardinals 17, Panthers 16 --- ARZ +6.5 Last week I said that I was picking the winner of the Falcons/Panthers game to win their first playoff game no matter what. Well, my opinion changed once I found out that the Panthers were nearly a touchdown favorite against an 11-win team. The Panthers, despite being under .500, earned the NFC South title by winning four games in a row. That four game winning streak can be a bit deceiving considering those wins are over Tampa Bay, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Atlanta.
The Cardinals stumbled in the stretch losing four of six with Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, and even Logan Thomas at quarterback. However, two of those losses came to the Seahawks and they did beat the Rams and the Chiefs in weeks 14 and 15. I think the Cardinals will cover the spread and possibly win if their defense can keep the Panthers under 20 points.

Steelers 24, Ravens 20 --- PIT -3 Let's just get the most obvious statement out of the way, as a Steelers fan I cannot in good conscience pick the Ratbirds to come into Pittsburgh and win a playoff game. Can't do it. Am I nervous that the Steelers will lose without Le'Veon Bell playing? Yes, but the Steelers are 3-0 against the Ravens in the playoffs (2-0 vs FLACCCCOOOO) and the Steelers also have an impressive 9-0 record when playing a team for the third time in the same season. 

The weather forecast is calling for rain with temperatures in the low 40's, which could favor the Ravens considering the Steelers will likely need to win the game through the air.

The two keys for the Steelers are the need for them to get something going on the ground with Ben Tate, Josh Harris, or Dri Archer. It doesn't need to be a 100+ yard game on the ground but they need to prove to the Ravens that they can at least run it a little. 

Secondly, they can't get beat by Joe FLACCCOOOOO's deep ball. The Steelers secondary has been playing pretty well ever since A.J. Green torched them in week 14 but if Torrey Smith catches a few long balls to either score or even just to flip field position the Ravens will have a big advantage. Also don't let Jacoby Jones return a kick for a touchdown. 

I'm really not expecting the Steelers to win or make it to the Super Bowl but a playoff win over the Ravens would certainly make me think this year has been somewhat successful. 

PLAYOFFS?!?!? Enjoy the games people.