Thursday, September 4, 2014

2014 NFL Predictions


The NFL is finally back. The next five months should be fantastic, unless the refs decide to throw penalty flags on every play. The start of the season also means it's time for my predictions that are sure to be wrong. Last year my predictions weren't pretty. My Super Bowl prediction went an outstanding 4-12. Thanks Atlanta Falcons. I also had the Eagles and Panthers finishing last in their division and they both won.

However, those predictions are in the past. It's time to focus on the 2014 season.

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 12-4* - Tom F. Brady. Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo are back on defense. They got some guy named Revis now. Blah blah blah. Patriots are going to win the AFC East by week 10. Actually they have already won it. They will probably get home field advantage also.

New York Jets 7-9 - I don't see the Jets making the playoffs like some other people. Geno Smith is not a franchise quarterback. I know he finished last year pretty well and now he has Eric Decker but he's just not that great. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Mike Vick start multiple games this season. The Jets defense will win them a handful of games but they will need to figure out something at cornerback because the Revis/Cromartie days are long gone. Avoiding ten losses should happen, but they also won't get to ten wins.

Miami Dolphins 6-10 - I really don't know what to make of the Dolphins. Maybe they won't be as bad as 6-10 considering last year they were going to make the playoffs if they didn't lose their final two games. It is definitely a make or break year for Ryan Tannehill though. They added Knowshon Moreno and Mike Wallace should have a better second season in Miami. They won't win the division but if they pick up a few key wins they could be on the fringe of the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills 5-11 - Let me say this, I'm still on the Bills bandwagon. They will eventually make it back to the playoffs. However, it will not be this year. I'll go as far as saying there is no shot they make it. EJ Manuel is not the guy to get it done. It may be too soon to call him a bust but he is heading down that path quickly. Maybe next year Buffalo.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals 10-6* - Despite the fact that I don't like Andy Dalton, the Bengals are still the most talented team in the division and they are the defending AFC North champs until somebody knocks them off. They have plenty on weapons to surround Dalton. On defense they get Geno Atkins back from injury. The Bungals will inevitably lose in their first playoff game and then keep Marvin Lewis for another year but that's just the Bungals being the Bungals.

Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7* - After two straight 8-8 seasons, the Steelers should be contending for the North crown. Their offense is solid with Big Ben leading the way. If their offensive stays healthy their run game should be very good unless Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount get arrested again. On defense they will need the secondary to step up and force some turnovers. They should not be worse than 8-8, their schedule is not hard. The Steelers will most likely be fighting for the final wild card spot come December, or at least I hope they will be in hunt.

Baltimore Ravens 8-8 - The Ravens could easily start the year 1-4. Week one at home against the Bengals will be very telling for them. If they win, they could be back in the playoffs. If they lose, the Bengals will have an early leg up on the division. Personally I just don't see Joe FLACCCOOOOOO bouncing back this year and the defense is still lacking leadership. They won't be worse than 8-8 but they don't have much of a chance to win their second Super Bowl in three years.

Cleveland Browns 4-12 - The Brownies do have a very good defense that will keep them in most games. The problem for them is that they might score about ten points a game. Four wins as a prediction might be low but they won't avoid ten losses this year no matter who plays quarterback. My guess is that after the Browns start 0-3, we will get to see Johnny Football as the starter instead of Brian Hoyer. While things are looking up for Cleveland now that LeBron is back, the football team will continue to look like the same old Brownies.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 10-6* - The Colts as a team aren't spectacular but they have a spectacular quarterback. Andrew Luck will lead the Colts to another division title. I'm not sure if the Colts will make a deep run into the playoffs but I'm sure Luck will continue to get better and better during his third season.

Houston Texans 9-7* - After an abysmal 2-14 season, the Texans are poised for a bounce back year despite having the Amish Rifle as their quarterback. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick will do what he does best and throw a ton of interceptions. Ryan "Meat" Mallet could eventually come the starter, which would be interesting. The Texans defense should be able to get after opposing QB's. I have them in the playoffs at 9-7 because their schedule isn't that difficult.

Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 - The Jaguars are quickly becoming my new Buffalo Bills. I'm all about the Jaguars in the future. First off Gus Bradley seems to have the potential to become a great coach in this league. Second, they have the second coming of Big Ben in Blake Bortles. He might not play this year, which is fine, let him learn under Chad Henne while the talent around the QB gets better and better. A six win year would be a step in the right direction after going 4-12 last season.

Tennessee Titans 5-11 - Bill Cowher likes the Titans. I'm not sure why. Their defense might be pretty good and it's true Jake Locker was pretty good last season before he got hurt. The problem is, is that Locker will most likely get hurt again this year. Their current backup is Charlie Whitehurst. That won't help the Titans. 5-11 might be a harsh prediction. However, I don't see them getting over seven wins.

AFC West 

Denver Broncos 11-5* - Similar to the Patriots, the Broncos are going to make the playoffs. Peyton Manning is still great. The Broncos loaded up on defense. Will they be affected by their Super Bowl performance? Possibly, but Peyton will be steady the ship for the regular season. They will get 11 or 12 wins easily.

Kansas City Chiefs 8-8 - Last year the Chiefs had two seasons. The first part was when they started 9-0. The second half didn't go as well, going 2-6 and blowing a huge lead to the Colts in the playoffs. I don't think this years Chiefs team will see either of those extremes again. They will probably be a middle of the road team, finishing around 8-8. They have a chance to make the playoffs again but I think they will come up a bit short.

San Diego Chargers 7-9 - After making the playoffs last year because Ryan Succop couldn't make a field goal, knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs, I don't see the Chargers earning a wild card spot for the second straight year. Their last five games are against tough competition. Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, 49ers, and Chiefs. They could lose all five of those games. So unless Phil and Chargers start 9-2 or 10-1, they probably won't finish above.500.

Oakland Raiders 4-12 - Derek Carr is in for a long rookie season. The Raiders added some veteran talent to the roster but unfortunately for them this isn't 2010, when players like Maurice Jones-Drew, LaMarr Woodley, and Justin Tuck were actually great. The Raiders will remain the bad RAYYYYDAAAS until they finally get back to the playoffs. That won't happen this year.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 10-6* - The Eagles are going to the NFC East by default thanks to the group of teams competing against them. Nick Foles still has something to prove after his incredible 2013 season. Chip Kelly's offense shouldn't have too many issues trying to find a replacement for Desean Jackson, since I'm pretty sure I could be a borderline pro bowler in that offense. Shady McCoy will have another big year and as long as the defense is alright, the Eagles will be in the playoffs.

New York Giants 7-9 - This may be an overreaction based on the preseason but the Giants offense is in big trouble. This is the first time Eli Manning is learning a new offense since his rookie year. The process is taking a little longer than expected and unfortunately for Giants there is no more time to wait. The G-Men won't be awful but they won't be great either.

Dallas Cowboys 6-10 - Their defense is dreadful. Tony Romo's back is still a concern. Jerry Jones still thinks he is a great GM. Dallas appears to be a mess and this seems to be the year that the Cowboys won't make it to their normal 8-8 record.

Washington Redskins 6-10 - I am of the opinion that Bob Griffin III won't be the starter all year long. Maybe Jay Gruden will figure out how to utilize RG III but if it's not due to poor play, he will end up getting injured because he doesn't know how to slide. Unfortunately for the Redskins, I just don't see them bouncing back into the playoffs this year. Too many things need to go right for that to happen.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 11-5* - Before I went through the schedule I was thinking the Packers might have a down year. After I finished I don't see them losing more than six games. Aaron Rodgers alone is worth close to ten wins. The Pack will be fine in the regular season, probably winning the North, but I don't expect them to get their second Super Bowl under Rodgers and McCarthy.

Chicago Bears 10-6* - The Bears defense has the potential to be terrible and the offense has the potential to be very good. Jay Cutler could have a great second season in Marc Trestman's offense. As long as Matt Forte stays healthy they should score a lot of points. If they can force turnovers and keep teams out of the end zone, DA Bears have a chance to be make the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings 7-9 - People forgot that the Vikings made the playoffs in 2012. 5-10-1 last year wasn't too great but the Vikings should bounce back this year. They have a ton over first round talent all of the roster. Matt Cassel has been playing well during the preseason and if he struggles they have Teddy Bridgewater. Adrian Peterson is still a beast and Cordarrelle Patterson could turn into one of the best receivers in the league. The might be a year away from reaching their full potential and playing outside this winter could affect them, but the Vikings won't be a pushover this season.

Detroit Lions 7-9 - The Lions are an interesting bunch. Jim Schwartz is gone and Jim Caldwell is in. The Lions should be a better behaved team but that might not be enough to get back to the playoffs. The offense will remain strong with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson but their defense will determine their season. Frankly I don't expect them to stop anybody so 7-9 will probably be about where they finish.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 12-4* - Everybody loves the Saints. A ton of people having them winning the Super Bowl. I don't necessarily see that happening but winning the south is very possible. They have Drew BREEEEEESSSSSS, so their offense and my fantasy team will be just fine. The issue for the Saints will always be their defense and once the playoffs roll around, I expect that to be their downfall.

Carolina Panthers 8-8 - I think the Panthers are going to be a lot like the Jets. Their defense is one of the best in league but there will be games where the offense just won't score enough points. Cam Newton can only do so much. He is already dinged up, which isn't a good thing for a mobile QB entering the season. Also last season everything seemed to go right for Riverboat Ron. This year they might not catch all those breaks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9 - The Bucs are another Florida team I'm not sure what to make of. I think Lovie Smith will help improve them from a 4-12 team. I don't love their quarterback, Josh McCown. He's a perfect backup and I'm not sure he's the guy. A healthy Doug Martin will definitely help the team and McCown. I think they will be better than last season, but I don't see the Bucs and their horrible new uniforms making the playoffs. GO BACK TO THE CREAMSICLES.

Atlanta Falcons 7-9 - After watching the entire season of Hard Knocks, I still have no idea what to make of the dirty birds. I don't think they will be 4-12 bad, but I also don't expect them to be one play away from the Super Bowl like they were in 2012. In between 7-9 and 9-7 is about where they might end up. Although I really shouldn't try to predict the Falcons. Last year I had them winning a Super Bowl and two years ago I had them in last place, so whatever I say they do the opposite.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks 11-5* - Recent history has told us that defending champs don't always meet expectations. The Seahawks are a different bunch though. They didn't lose that many players in the offseason and they are still a relatively young team. I'd be shocked if they didn't win the West. If they don't get home field in the playoffs, then maybe they won't repeat but they will be in the mix come January.

San Francisco 49ers 10-6* - No Aldon Smith for nine games. They lost Donte Whitner, NaVarro Bowman will miss most of the year, and Glenn Dorsey got injured. Their defense is not in great shape, at least to start the year. Everybody is down on the Niners. They have been to three straight NFC Championships, maybe this is the year they slip. I have a feeling Colin Kaepernick will keep them afloat early in the season and once they get Smith and Bowman back they might be a force in the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals 9-7 - Everybody loves the Cardinals after their 10-6 season last year. People are also predicting the demise of the 49ers and there is a potential hangover for the Super Champs. Personally, I just don't trust Carson Palmer to get it done. In an important game he will inevitably throw a few key interceptions. They can only feed Andre Ellington so much, and eventually Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd will be covered and Carson will force one. The Cards will be good but I don't think they will get into the playoffs.

St. Louis Rams 6-10 - Their defense will be very good but Shaun Hill leading the offense against the rest of the NFC West is a recipe for disaster. Also, can we all agree that Jeff Fisher is a mediocre head coach. He gets a lot of credit for being one of the best head coaches, but what has he done other than taking the Titans to the Super Bowl when he had Steve McNair and Eddie George? He probably won't be fired because of the Sam Bradford injury but he's turning into Mike Shanahan in my opinion.

NFL MVP: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints --- Other than Adrian Peterson's MVP, a quarterback has won this award every year since 2007. Manning, Rodgers, and TFB have all won. It's time for Brees to finally win one. The Saints offense is loaded with a healthy and happy Jimmy Graham. The addition of rookie Bradin Cooks could be huge.

Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis, CB, New England Patriots --- Two years removed from an ACL injury and with Richard Sherman proclaiming him the great thing since sliced bread, it's about time Revis Island returns. Unfortunately for Jets fans it will be with their biggest rival.

Coach of the Year: Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans --- Since I'm picking the Texans to get into the playoffs with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback and after a 2-14 season, it would hard to not give O'Brien the award.  

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders --- I'm aware that I said he's in for a long rookie season. That's probably true but six of the past ten rookie of the years on offense have been a quarterback. Carr is the only rookie QB starting week one. If he can get the Raiders to seven wins and his stats are decent he could win this award.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Calvin Pryor, S, New York Jets --- The kid is a thumper. The Jets secondary is going to need help and if Pryor can step in Rexy's defense and perform well, he has a chance to win this award. I also just wanted to get in the sentence about him being a thumper.

AFC Wild Card

Indianpolis Colts over Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals

NFC Wild Card

San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles over Chicago Bears

AFC Divisional Round

New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts

NFC Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints over San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks over Philadelphia Eagles

AFC Championship: New England Patriots over Denver Broncos

NFC Championship: Seattle Seahawks over New Orleans Saints

SUPER BOWL XLIX: Seattle Seahawks over New England Patriots

Not exactly the most creative Super Bowl matchup but it seems very possible. The Patriots have the potential to be very good on defense this year and with Lord Brady the offense will be good like usual. However, I believe that the Seahawks will repeat as Super Bowl champs. Maybe I'm still brainwashed by what I saw last February when they destroyed the Broncos but I don't see anybody beating them. I think they are still hungry to prove they aren't just a one time Super Bowl winner. The Seahawks still have a chip on their shoulder for whatever reason and I'll take them to win their second straight Super Bowl.

Opening Night Pick: Seahawks 31, Packers 20 --- SEA -6 --- Unless the Packers start with the ball and drive the field for a touchdown, I see this game potentially getting out of hand early. Similar to the Monday night game in Seattle last year when the Saints came to town. If the Seahawks start strong and get an early lead, the crowd will be insane and the Packers would be in danger of getting blown out.

Enjoy the season.


(Picture from: http://dailysnark.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/BwiyAGrCcAAU1Tw-500x250.jpg)

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