NFL Week 1 Picks

What a day. Week one has finally arrived. From about one o'clock to midnight I am ready to be in football heaven, assuming the Steelers don't lose to the Brownies. Just like last year, I'll pick straight up winners for every game along with three or four spreads that I like. Read it or don't read but get used to The Crime Dog being posted every Sunday and Thursday for the next five months.

Last year I finished with a 35-33 record for spreads. Not too good, but at least it was above 50%. So far this year I am 1-0 thanks to the Seahawks being awesome. Without further ado, onto the picks...

Steelers 20, Browns 14 --- CLE +7 Let's just get the Steelers game out of the way. I have a really bad feeling about this game. The Browns are a debacle on offense and the game is in Pittsburgh so the Steelers should come out on top, but I think the Browns defense will keep them in the game for a long time. The reason for my pessimistic attitude is due to the Steelers losing on opening day last year to the Tennessee Titans. The Steelers have to win this game if they have any plans of being good this year.

Falcons 27, Saints 24 --- Even though it's only week one, this is a must win for the Falcons. It would be a tone setting win if they could knock off the Saints, who many are predicting to win the NFC South and potentially the Super Bowl. Since it's at home, I'll take the Falcons but I would not be surprised at all if they get blown out by Drew BREEEEEESSSS and the Saints.

Vikings 21, Rams 17 --- I'm not sure why but I think the Vikings are going to have a very good year. That's probably due to my love for Cordarrelle Patterson. He's really good. Anyways, I know the Rams have a solid defense but with Shaun Hill running things on offense I don't have any confidence in them at this point. Also Jeff Fisher is not a great coach and I think Mike Zimmer will have something to prove in his first NFL game. Vikings outright.

Eagles 30, Jaguars 21 --- As you may or may not know, I'm pretty much a Jaguars fan. They are without Cecil Shorts III in this game and they aren't playing Blake Bortles because they like Chad Henne, so they will lose to the Eagles. However, the spread is Jags +10.5. I don't have a ton of confidence in it, so I won't make it an official pick, but the Jaguars might keep this one close before the Eagles finally prevail.

Jets 23, Raiders 17 --- This game is a lot like the Steelers game, meaning the home team should win but for some reason I have a feeling it will be close. Derek Carr starts for the Raiders against Rex Ryan's defense, who has a bunch of nobodies playing cornerback. However, the Jets defensive line is outstanding and if they can get a solid pass rush the lack of corners will be a non factor. Also, as long as Geno Smith doesn't turn the ball over multiple times the Jets should get their first win of the season.

Ravens 24, Bengals 20 --- BAL -1 I've gone back and forth on this game. I think the Bengals are the better team and have the superior talent. However, since it is in Baltimore and the Ravens, similar to the Falcons, need this win to prove they aren't the same team as last year. Plus Andy Dalton struggles against the Ravens, throwing six touchdowns and 11 interceptions in six career games against Baltimore.

Bears 40, Bills 27 --- The Bears offense has the potential to be very good. The Bills appear to be a mess on offense. Da Bears should win this game at home.

Texans 28, Redskins 21 --- This game could go either way. Both teams have something to prove, yet nobody seems to know how good either team is. I'll take the home team, partly due to the fact that the Texans defensive line has a chance to crush RG III.

Chiefs 20, Titans 17 --- Surprisingly the Chiefs are horrible against the spread at home. The line is 3 for the Chiefs. I think that's about where the final score will end out. People are down on the Chiefs but historically Andy Reid has been very good off of bye weeks/with more time to prepare. I think the Chiefs get the home win but it could be a close one.

Patriots 31, Dolphins 20 --- NE -4 The Patriots haven't lost a season opener since 2003. Even though the Pats have struggled at times in Miami, I don't see Lord Brady losing today. The Pats defense has the potential to be very good and I think they will give Ryan Tannehill a tough time today.

Panthers 20, Bucs 17 --- CAR +3 I'm down on the Panthers, personally I don't see them making it back to the playoffs. With that being said, I don't like the Buccaneers either and the Panthers defense should shut down Josh McCown to start off the season 1-0.

49ers 34, Cowboys 27 --- The under/over of 51 is very intriguing. The Cowboys defense is not good and the Niners are missing a few key members. I think Colin Kaepernick is going to have a huge game running and throwing. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant might keep the Cowboys in the game but the Niners will end out with the victory.

Broncos 35, Colts 31 --- Another game with the potential to be a shootout. The Broncos are the better team but Andrew Luck will keep the Colts in the game. The Broncos however have something to prove after the lackluster Super Bowl performance. They will get the home win to start the year.

Lions 30, Giants 24 --- It will be very interesting to see how Eli Manning does in a real game. The preseason was not good. He will need to play well because the Lions are going to score some points. I'll give the edge to the home team but if Eli figured out the offense and looks alright the Giants might be able to outscore the Lions.

Cardinals 27, Chargers 24 --- Everybody loves the Cardinals. I think they will win the opener at home on Monday night but I don't think it will be easy. I've said it a million times but Carson Palmer will throw a few picks, that will keep the Chargers in the game.

Enjoy the games people.