Sunday, September 29, 2013

NFL Week 4 Picks




Doesn't Big Ben look thrilled to be in London?

I bet London is so pumped they get to see two teams without a win today. Based on that picture of Big Ben, it doesn't seem like he's too pumped about the game either. Other than the that game there are a ton of important games today. I can't believe it's already week four. Before you know it, the playoffs are going to be starting.


Overall : 27-20  Spread : 3-8-1


Steelers 20, Vikings 14 --- Absolute must win for the Steelers. Not only because it is their last chance to save their season (which might not be even savable) but this game has a lot at stake. If the Steelers lose I will have to wear a Vikings jersey (probably Randy Moss) to Christmas Eve dinner at my Grandma's house. Not a good look. I'd much rather make my cousin Dan wear a Troy Polamalu jersey. So Steelers do get it done for me please. You can't really lose to Matt Cassel can you? Force a turnover for crying out loud.

Ravens 27, Bills 20 --- BAL -3 The Ravens crushed the Texans last week for their first good performance of the season. The Bills on the other hand looked miserable as they couldn't even beat the Jets, who committed 20 penalties. The Bills are much better at home but I still think the Ravens get the win there today.

Bengals 24, Browns 21 --- This is a huge game for the Brownies. If they win they get to 2-2 and then play the Bills at home on Thursday, giving them a chance to go over .500. If the offense can score like they did last week in Josh Gordon's return, they might have a shot to upset the Bengals today. It's crazy to think last week at this time everybody was ready to give the Browns the first or second pick in the draft and now I'm talking about them having a chance to be a winning team...With all that being said, I probably just jinxed the Browns and they might lose 35-3 today.

Lions 27, Bears 24 --- I'm not sure what to make of either team yet. The Bears came into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers, thanks to five turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns. But they also let up a ton of yards to a Steelers offense, which had looked bad all year before that game. The Lions went into D.C and beat the Redskins, so they are now 2-1 but the combined record of the teams they have played are 1-8 (the one win being the Cardinals win over the Lions). So this game could be interesting. I think if the Lions can avoid costly turnovers, something the Steelers couldn't do, then they should be able to win at home.

Chiefs 26, Giants 20 --- For the first time this season I'm not picking the Giants to win, so that might be a good thing for them. I just don't see a way they win today in Kansas City. The Chiefs don't turn the ball over and that's all the Giants do. Plus Eli Manning has been getting protection like he's Big Ben, so that won't help against the Chiefs, who lead the league in sacks with 15. They should be better than last week against the Panthers but they won't win in Arrowhead.

Bucs 17, Cardinals 14 --- I have no idea how Mike Glennon will play in his first NFL start. If the Bucs can rely on Doug Martin, then they have a chance to get their first win. The Cardinals defense might be able to force a few turnovers but I'm not sure the offense will be able to score a lot. They only scored seven points last week in New Orleans and they are 0-2 on the road this year, so I'll take the Bucs to win.

Colts 28, Jaguars 17 --- IND -8.5 Jaguars are bad. Colts are good. Andrew Luck is really good. Blaine Gabbert isn't that good. Seems simple enough.

Texans 27, Seahawks 24 --- The Seahawks are easily one of the top three teams in the league right now but I'm still not sure how great they are away from home. In week one they beat Carolina 12-7, thanks to a late fumble by the Panthers. The Texans got beat pretty good last week in Baltimore and haven't looked to impressive all season. The Seahawks are the better team but I'm going with the Texans because I need to see the Seahawks win some big games on the road before I have the confidence to pick them away from home.

Titans 16, Jets 14 --- Two surprising 2-1 teams going against each other. Can you imagine that the Jets have a chance to go 3-1 in September. Before the year everyone, including myself, predicted they might only win three games all year. Both the Titans and the Jets have had a strong defense all year, so I'm guessing this game will be low scoring. I'll give the edge to the Titans at home, but whichever QB makes fewer mistakes will probably determine the outcome.

Broncos 42, Eagles 30 --- I don't know how the Eagles plan to slow down Peyton Manning. Defensivley the Iggles aren't good and if they continue to play hurry up and turn the ball over, Peyton will be on the field for most of the game. The only hope for the Eagles would be to match every Broncos score but that's no easy task. Broncos start 4-0.

Redskins 27, Raiders 21 --- Matt Flynn is starting for the Raiders, so who knows how well that will go. The skins have to win sometime right? If they lose to in Oakland today, does Mike Shanahan get put on the hot seat? Lots of questions about this game. I think the skins get the win because they absolutely need to.

Chargers 20, Cowboys 17 --- SD +2The Cowboys should win this game. They should. But I don't think they will. It just seems like a game the Cowboys would lose. Plus the Chargers have been in every game. Their record could be better than 1-2 but it's not. If DeMarco Murray runs like he did last week the Boys get the win on the road but if he struggles and Romo isn't great, Chargers get the win at home.

Falcons 30, Patriots 24 --- ATL -2.5 Even though on Thursday I said the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl, I think they lose this game in Atlanta. Basically the Falcons need to win this game. They can't fall to 1-3, while the Saints have a chance to go 4-0 tomorrow night. Plus the Falcons are much better at home. This will be a good test for the Patriots defense, who hasn't played against a QB as good as Matt Ryan yet. I think they will do alright but the offense is going to need to get into the 30's to win.

Saints 31, Dolphins 21 --- It's never easy for a road team to go into New Orleans and get a win, let alone on a Monday night. I think the Saints will feed off the home crowd and jump out to an early lead on the Phins. Drew BREEEEEEESSSSSSS should have a good night, like usual. The Dolphins are 2-0 on the road but this is their toughest test so far. Saints win.

Enjoy the games people.

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