The NBA for the Next Four Years

My personal belief on the NBA is that it is a fixed league. Some people might not agree with me but you have to admit it's easily predictable at least. Since 1984, only 8 teams have won the NBA Championship (Lakers 8, Bulls 6, Spurs 4, Celtics 3, Pistons 3, Heat 2, Rockets 2, Mavericks 1) Meanwhile since '84, in the NFL 15 teams have won, 18 MLB teams and the NHL has had a different champion every year for the past 9 seasons. Obviously you can make the point that the NBA is much different sport because it's much more of an individual game, where one player can carry a team to a title. But still, that's not a lot of parity over the past 29 years. 

Don't get me wrong I like the NBA more than I used to because it has been interesting since the Celtics Big 3 began playing. Then LeBron went to Heat. It's been fun watching the Conference Finals and Finals recently but that's really all you need to watch. At the beginning of the season you can name on one hand how many teams could actually win the championship. This year you had the Heat, Thunder, we thought Lakers, Spurs out of respect, then maybe you thought the Knicks or Celtics could at least challenge the Heat. So six total teams out of the 30 team league. If you are a fan of the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, Milwaukee Bucks, or Denver Nuggets did you really believe your team could win the championship? Sure you will get to the playoffs but at the end of the day the six teams (well four because the Lakers stink and the Celtics don't have Rondo) I named earlier will beat you. 

Okay I guess that's enough of a rant about how spoiled I am with the parity in the NFL. Onto my predictions for the next four years...

As for this year the NBA Finals will be, once again, wait for it... It's a shocker... Heat vs Thunder. 

Clearly the Heat are the best team in the East and the entire league for that matter. The Knicks might get their shot at the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals but I don't see that series going past six games. The Heat should repeat and will repeat.

As for the team from the West, it's either the Spurs or the Thunder. One of my conspiracy theories is that David Stern hates the Spurs. Basically because they aren't great for ratings and Greg Popovich does what he wants, like not playing his best three players for no reason, so the Spurs won't make it. It would be really interesting to see them get a shot at the Heat though if they were all healthy.

So then that basically leaves the Thunder. Plus the NBA would love to have another Kevin Durant vs LeBron Finals, which has the potential to be a great rivalry for the next seven or eight years.

The Heat will win the series in six, possibly seven if the NBA wants that to happen. MVP will be LeBron. Pretty simple stuff for this year.

Then for the 2013-14 season, the Heat will 3peat, most likely over the Thunder again but it's very possible the Spurs or Clippers might sneak in. Plus you can't rule out the Lakers if they resign Dwight Howard and they get Phil Jackson back, or at least a decent coach. Either way it's the Heat for the third straight time.

This is where it gets interesting. After that season ends, LeBron, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh can all opt out of their contracts, which they are expected to do. Then it all depends on what LeBron does. I think he might go back to Cleveland if owner Dan Gilbert can forgive him. He could also possibly go the Lakers to play with Dwight but who knows where Kobe will be three years from now. Or he could return to Miami to try to win his fourth straight ring. However that team would be different then the current Heat, so subtract at least Wade or Bosh. Either way, whichever team LeBron decides to play for in 2014-15, his team will not win the championship. I personally believe he goes back to Cleveland to play with Kyrie Irving. Anyways, the OKC Thunder will finally win that year and Durant will get his first ring.

Then in 2015-16, LeBron will get his fourth ring for either the Cavaliers, Lakers, or Heat.

After that I'm not too sure. But lock everything I just said up for the next four years.